ACC Projections for NCAA Tournament: Three Teams in, Three Teams on the Bubble

Just two weeks are left in the ACC regular season before the start of the conference tournament, and those final three weeks will determine whether Wake Forest, North Carolina and SMU get into the NCAA tournament.

For Cal it's simple. The Bears (12-15, 5-11 ACC) must first get into the ACC tournament (15 of the 18 conference teams qualify for the conference tournament). Then they win that tournament to get into the field of 68. It's more complicated for the Demon Deacons, the Tar Heels and the Mustangs.

The seven experts we site all suggest the ACC will have four NCAA tournament representatives, with Duke as a No. 1 seed, Clemson moving up to a No. 5 seed, and Louisville safely in as a No. 6 or 7 seed. But there is considerable disagreement about the three other ACC NCAA tournament possibilities, the only agreement being that Wake Forest, North Carolina and SMU sit squarely on the bubble.

Being on the bubble is a particularly precarious position because the last few at-large teams are likely to get bumped out by surprise winners of conference tournaments. If, for example, North Texas wins the American Athletic Conference tournament, the AAC would get two NCAA berths instead of just one because 18th-ranked Memphis would get in anyway with an at-large berth in that case.

Last year, the ACC got an extra NCAA tournament berth because North Carolina State, which was 17-14 overall and 9-11 in the conference entering the ACC tournament, would not have received an NCAA tournament berth unless it won the conference tournament. But the Wolfpack not only won the conference tournament to get in, but it got to the Final Four.

It should be noted that some of the NCAA tournament projections we site indicate what the 68-team field would look like if the teams were selected today, while others attempt to forecast what the field will be on Selection Sunday based on predicted results the rest of the way.

We picked out the NCAA tournament projections of seven reliable sites, but there are tons more projections out there. If you want to go deep into the weeds and investigate the NCAA tournament projections of 87 different sites, you can go to the Bracket Matrix site.

Here are the projections of our seven experts (and the date they were posted). We list them in order of trustworthiness

ESPN (Joe Lunardi, February 25)

ACC Teams in – 4

Duke – No. 1 seed

Clemson – No. 5 seed

Louisville – No. 7 seed

Wake Forest – No. 11 seed, Last four in

North Carolina – First four out

SMU – First four out

NCAA.com (Andy Katz, February 25)

ACC Teams in -- 4

Duke -- No. 1 seed

Clemson -- No. 5 seed

Louisville -- No. 6 seed

North Carolina -- No. 12 seed, Last four in

Wake Forest -- First four out

SMU -- First four out

USA Today (Eddie Timanus, Erick Smith, Pual Myerberg, February 25)

ACC Teams in – 4

Duke – No. 1 seed

Clemson – No. 5 seed

Louisville – No. 6 seed

Wake Forest – No. 11 seed, Last four in

North Carolina – First four out

SMU – Not included

CBS Sports (Jerry Palm, February 24)

ACC Teams in – 4

Duke – No. 1 seed

Clemson – No. 5 seed

Louisville – No. 7 seed

Wake Forest – No. 11 seed, Last four in

North Carolina – First four out

SMU – Not included

The Sporting News (Bill Bender, February 25)

ACC Teams in – 4

Duke – No. 1 seed

Clemson – No. 5 seed

Louisville – No. 6 seed

SMU – No. 11 seed, Last four in

North Carolina – First four out

Wake Forest – Not included

On3 (James Fletcher III, February 23)

ACC Teams in – 4

Duke – No. 1 seed

Clemson – No. 5 seed

Louisville – No. 6 seed

North Carolina – No. 11 seed, Last four in

SMU – First four out

Wake Forest – First four out

T-Ranketology (February 25)

ACC Teams in – 4

Duke – No. 1 seed

Clemson – No. 5 seed

Louisville – No. 7 seed

North Carolina – No. 11 seed, Last four in

SMU – No. 4 of first teams out

Wake Forest – No. 6 of first teams out