Cal's Game Against Wake Forest Critical for Bears' NCAA Tournament Chances

Cal’s road game against Wake Forest on Saturday (1 p.m. Pacific time) is the Bears’ final regular-season game, and it s critical for Cal’s hopes of landing an at-large berth to the NCAA tournament.

As of Friday morning, Cal (21-9, 9-8 ACC) is on the cusp of an NCAA tournament berth, so everything is magnified and changes rapidly.

ESPN’s Joe Lunardi, the most respected of the myriad Bracketologists, placed Cal first among his Next Four Out group in his NCAA tournament projections Friday morning. That means the Bears would have to pass five teams to get a berth.

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— Joe Lunardi (@ESPNLunardi) March 6, 2026

Other projections are more optimistic about Cal’s chances.

CBS Sports has Cal in the 68-team field in its Friday projections, listing the Bears as the last at-large team to get in.

Fox Sports and USA Today both have Cal among the First Four Out, putting them within range of an NCAA tournament berth if things fall their way.

The Bracket Matrix monitors 105 sites that post NCAA tournament projections, and only three have the Bears in March Madness as of Friday morning. But one of the three that has Cal in the field is Jerry Palm, a high-profile name in the Bracketology world.

Cal’s NET ranking of 64 will not impress the 12-member selection committee, but the Bears' WAB (Wins Above Bubble) ranking of 47 will, and some reports suggest WAB numbers are critical to the selection process.

The number that weighs most heavily in Cal’s favor, though, is the Bears’ four Quadrant 1 wins, which includes one Quad 1A victory.

That brings us to Wake Forest and why a victory over the Deacons (15-15 overall, 6-11 in the ACC and 11-6 at home) is so important for Cal’s NCAA hopes.

Wake Forest is currently 67th in the NET rankings, and any road victory over a team ranked in the top 75 counts as a Quad 1 win. A Cal win would give Cal five Quad 1 wins, which would be a lot for a bubble team and would make the selection committee take a hard look at the Bears when comparing them to other teams on the fringe.

Of course, Wake Forest would have to stay in the top 75 by the time the NCAA tournament field is announced on March 15, but it’s hard to imagine that the Deacons would slip nine spots with a loss to Cal and a first-round loss in the ACC tournament.

Even if Cal beats Wake Forest the Bears would probably need to win at least one game in the ACC tournament to earn consideration for an at-large NCAA berth.

If Cal loses to Wake Forest, the Bears probably would need to win the ACC tournament to get its first NCAA tournament berth in 10 years, and the odds of accomplishing that are long.

If the ACC tournament started today (Friday) Cal would be the No. 9 seed, would get a first-round bye and would play its opening game on Wednesday against No. 8 seed Florida State, which beat Cal by two points on January 28 and is 8-2 over its last 10 games.

If Cal would win that game, it would play a quarterfinal game against top-ranked Duke in Charlotte, North Carolina.

It is worth remembering that results across the country involving bubble teams will affect Cal’s postseason chances, and surprise winners in conference tournaments throughout the nation are likely to knock the last few at-large teams out of March Madness – a situation known as bid-stealers.

Bid-stealers are teams that win their conference tournaments and earn an automatic NCAA tournament bid despite having a record that would not earn them an at-large berth, reducing the number of at-large vacancies.

Suffice it to say, Cal desperately needs to beat Wake Forest to have any shot at its first NCAA tournament berth since 2016.