Nine Sites Give Us Cal's NCAA Tournament Prospects as of March 4

Cal is still in the hunt for an NCAA tournament berth heading into heading into its Wednesday road game against Georgia Tech.

Nine reputable projections of Cal’s bubble status suggest the Bears are within reach of a berth in March Madness, but none has the Bears in the field.

The Cal projection of those nine sites is presented here in the order of the sites’ trustworthiness. For example, ESPN is listed first because it is the most reliable. (All projections are from Tuesday, except for CBS Sports, which provided new projections Wednesday.):

ESPN (Joe Lunardi)

Cal is second among the Next Four Out -- Cal must pass six teams to be included in the NCAA tournament field.

pic.twitter.com/fltEZ8Ksx8
— Joe Lunardi (@ESPNLunardi) March 4, 2026

The Athletic (Joe Rexrode)

Cal is first among the Next Four Out – Cal must pass five teams to make the field.

CBS Sports (David Cobb, Jacob Fetner)

Cal is the First Team Out – Cal needs to pass one team to get into the tournament in its Wednesday projections. On Tuesday, CBS Sports had Cal as the Last Team In the field of 68.

NCAA.com (Andy Katz)

Cal is one of 10 teams listed as In The Hunt, but not among the First Four Out -- Cal would have to pass at least five teams to get in.

Fox Sports (Mike DeCourcy)

Cal is third among the First Four Out – Cal must pass three teams to get a berth.

Teams on the bubble at the beginning on March 👀

Will your team make the tournament? pic.twitter.com/BM1ChJ38S3
— FOX College Hoops (@CBBonFOX) March 3, 2026

USA Today (Erick Smith, Eddie Timanus, Paul Myerberg)

Cal is third among the First Four Out -- Cal must pass three teams to get in.

The Sporting News (Bill Bender)

Cal is one of four teams that barely missed making the field, listed in Bubble Watch – Cal may need to pass just one team to make it.

Bleacher Report (Kerry Miller)

Cal is The Fourth Team Out -- Cal must pass four teams to get in.

On3 (Daniel Hager)

Cal is second on the Next Four Out – Cal must pass six teams to get in.

The Bracket Matrix website lists 105 sites that post NCAA tournament projections, and only four of them have Cal in the 68-team field as of Tuesday.

After Wednesday’s game against Georgia Tech, Cal plays its final regular-season game on Saturday against Wake Forest. And if the Deacons, currently ranked No. 67 in the NET rankings, stay in the top 75, a Cal victory on Saturday would give the Bears another Quad 1 win. Cal has a NET ranking of 64 as of Wednesday.

The ACC tournament begins Tuesday in Charlotte, North Carolina, and that will be the Bears’ final opportunity to impress the 12-member selection committee.