Men’s Basketball Bracket Watch: UCLA, TCU, Georgia Get Massive NCAA Tournament Boosts

The final countdown is on to Selection Sunday, with a bracket set to be in our hands in just over a week. To get you ready for the final weekend of the regular season, Sports Illustrated has updated its projected NCAA tournament field, with notes on who has the most to gain and lose in the coming days as most teams wrap up the regular season this weekend. Plus, with conference tournament action underway in some leagues, get the latest on who is projected to win automatic bids to the Dance.

Previous Bracket Watches: Jan. 21 | Feb. 3 | Feb. 10 | Feb. 17 | Feb. 24 | March 3

Key Updates

Three teams took huge steps toward the NCAA tournament with needle-moving wins in the last week:

UCLA climbed from a No. 10 seed among the last four byes all the way up to the No. 8 line after beating Nebraska on Tuesday. The Bruins now have three top-12 wins over Illinois, Purdue and now the Cornhuskers.
TCU beat Texas Tech in Lubbock on Tuesday night in a win that should go a long way toward sending the Horned Frogs dancing. Head-scratching results like the Quad 4 loss on opening night to New Orleans leave a bit of doubt, but it’s hard to imagine a team with wins over Florida, Iowa State and Texas Tech getting left out.
Georgia should safely dance after beating Alabama on Tuesday, the Bulldogs’ 21st win of the season and ninth in SEC play. Georgia’s metrics across the board are strong, and the Bulldogs now have seven Quad 1 victories.

And a few storylines to watch heading into the weekend:

Miami (Ohio) can finish off an undefeated regular season with a win over Ohio on Friday night. Do that, and it’s almost impossible to imagine the RedHawks not going dancing regardless of what happens in the MAC tournament.
We’re officially on bid-stealer watch starting with the Missouri Valley tournament. Belmont’s at-large chances are far from a slam dunk if it falls this weekend, but bubble teams would certainly prefer one less team to be competing against for a bid.
BYU will look to stop its free fall when it hosts Texas Tech. It’s hard to predict exactly where the Cougars will pop up on the bracket given the challenges of placing them with their inability to play on Sundays. Lose that one, and BYU could easily be a No. 10 or No. 11 seed when all is said and done.

On the Bubble

Last Four Byes

NC State
Missouri
Texas
Ohio State

Last Four In

SMU
Santa Clara
VCU
Indiana

First Four Out

New Mexico
Auburn
Virginia Tech
Cincinnati

Next Four Out

San Diego State
Seton Hall
Cal
Stanford

Indiana enters the projected field by a razor-thin margin over New Mexico after the Lobos lost a Quad 3 game to Colorado State on Wednesday night. But with both teams (and several others around them on the bubble) playing Quad 1 games this weekend, that could change quickly.

It’s also worth monitoring two ACC teams in free fall down the stretch in NC State (Last Four Byes) and SMU (Last Four In). NC State has lost five of six entering Saturday’s game against Stanford. Win that one, and the Wolfpack should likely be fine save for some conference tournament chaos. Lose, and things could get a bit dicey. Things have gotten very hairy for SMU in a hurry after three straight losses, exposing some of the holes in their profile. Saturday’s road Quad 1 game vs. Florida State isn’t quite a must win, but it’s close to one.

Perhaps the most important bubble storyline at the moment is Cincinnati, which has absolutely skyrocketed up boards in recent weeks and jumped into the First Four Out after dominating BYU. An early loss to Eastern Michigan is an eyesore, but wins over Iowa State and at Kansas are needle movers. A win Saturday at TCU and the Bearcats would enter the Big 12 tournament right around the bubble cut line. It’s also worth mentioning that the Bearcats have clearly been a better team since adding guard Jizzle James to the active roster in mid-December after being dismissed from the program in the summer. Could the committee view the Bearcats’ nonconference struggles less harshly given that?

* — indicates projected automatic qualifier

East Region

No. 1 Duke* vs. No. 16 Bethune-Cookman*/UMBC*
No. 8 UCLA vs. No. 9 Texas A&M
No. 5 North Carolina vs. No. 12 Liberty*
No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 13 UNC Wilmington*
No. 6 Kentucky vs. No. 11 Ohio State
No. 3 Iowa State vs. No. 14 East Tennessee State*
No. 7 Miami vs. No. 10 TCU
No. 2 Michigan State vs. No. 15 Navy*

Midwest Region

No. 1 Michigan* vs. No. 16 LIU*/Tennessee State*
No. 8 Georgia vs. No. 9 UCF
No. 5 Arkansas vs. No. 12 Yale*
No. 4 Kansas vs. No. 13 Stephen F. Austin*
No. 6 St. John’s vs. No. 11 Indiana/VCU
No. 3 Nebraska vs. No. 14 North Dakota State*
No. 7 Saint Mary’s vs. No. 10 Missouri
No. 2 Houston vs. No. 15 Merrimack*

West Region

No. 1 Arizona* vs. No. 16 Portland State*
No. 8 Iowa vs. No. 9 Utah State*
No. 5 Tennessee vs. No. 12 South Florida*
No. 4 Virginia vs. No. 13 High Point*
No. 6 Wisconsin vs. No. 11 Miami (Ohio)*
No. 3 Gonzaga* vs. No. 14 Hawai’i*
No. 7 BYU vs. No. 10 Texas
No. 2 Illinois vs. No. 15 Wright State*

South Region

No. 1 UConn* vs. No. 16 Howard*
No. 8 Saint Louis* vs. No. 9 Clemson
No. 5 Vanderbilt vs. No. 12 Belmont*
No. 4 Texas Tech vs. No. 13 Utah Valley*
No. 6 Louisville vs. No. 11 SMU/Santa Clara
No. 3 Purdue vs. No. 14 Troy*
No. 7 Villanova vs. No. 10 NC State
No. 2 Florida* vs. No. 15 Central Arkansas*

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