Which Results This Weekend Would Improve Cal’s NCAA Tournament Chances?

Cal fans are in a quandary, often not knowing which results across the country will improve the Bears’ chances of landing an NCAA tournament berth.

Immediately after Cal defeated SMU on Wednesday night, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi elevated Cal to the Last Team In the NCAA tournament in his Bracketology projections.

An hour later Cal was out again.

In a late game Wednesday night, San Diego State defeated Utah State to push the Aztecs into a first-place tie with Utah State. That led to a series of Lunardi calculations that put San Diego State in the 68-team field and pushed the Golden Bears out into that agonizing category of First Team Out.

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— Joe Lunardi (@ESPNLunardi) February 26, 2026

Such is the volatility of Cal’s postseason status as the Bears (20-8, 8-7 ACC) head into their final home game of the season -- Saturday’s 1 p.m. game against Pitt (10-18, 3-12 ACC).

Friday morning Cal was still listed as the First Team Out in Lunardi’s respected projections. But CBS Sports listed Cal as one of the Last Four In in its Friday morning projections, giving Cal a No. 11 seed and facing TCU in a preliminary-round NCAA Tournament game.

Fox Sports also has Cal in the NCAA tournament as a No. 11 seed in its projections posted Thursday, but it has the Bears in the main tournament draw, not having to play a preliminary-round game and instead facing sixth-seeded Tennessee in its opening game.

However, USA Today's Friday projection had Cal out of the tournament, but on the edge as one of the First Four Out.

The added component in this jockeying for position is that the last few at-large teams projected to make the field are likely to be bumped out as a result of unexpected winners of conference tournaments.

Cal is teetering on the edge and is at the mercy of results throughout the country.

Cal has a NET (NCAA Evaluation Tool) ranking of 57, which is typical of a bubble team, and a WAB (Wins Above Bubble) ranking of 44, which is quite good. The Bears also have four Quad 1 wins, including one Quad 1A victory, which is an impressive number but could change as we will demonstrate later in this article.

Cal has three games left before the ACC tournament, and has one more chance for a Quad 1 win – a March 7 road game against Wake Forest, assuming the Deacons, currently ranked No. 68 in the NET, stay in the top 75.

So which teams should Cal root for this weekend?

Cal hopes . . . . .:

---Seton Hall loses to UConn

---VCU loses to Fordham

---Missouri loses to Mississippi State

---Clemson loses to Louisville

---Cincinnati loses to Oklahoma State

---Georgia loses to South Carolina

---USC loses to Nebraska

---TCU loses to Kansas State

---Santa Clara to lose to Oregon State

---Auburn to lose to Mississippi

---Ohio State to lose to Purdue (Sunday)

---Indiana to lose to Michigan State (Sunday)

Cal Really Hopes . . . .:

---Virginia Tech loses to North Carolina

Virginia Tech is on the bubble with Cal, so a loss by the Hokies would help the Bears. Also, a Tar Heels win would keep Cal’s home win over North Carolina as a Quad 1 win. The Tar Heels are No. 27 in Friday’s NET rankings, but a loss might drop them out of the top 30, eliminating the UNC game as a Quad 1 win for the Bears

Cal Doesn’t Know What to Hope For . . . :

---SMU vs. Stanford

SMU moved close to the bubble after losing to Cal, and a Mustangs loss might push them down further and out of the projected field. However, SMU is No. 31, in Friday’s NET ranking, and if the Mustangs win Saturday, it might put them back into the top 30, making Cal’s home win over the Mustangs a Quad 1 victory.

However, a Stanford loss might push the Cardinal, which is No. 73 on the NET, out of the top 75, turning Cal’s road win over the Cardinal a Quad 2 win instead of its current status as a Quad 1 win.

---Texas vs. Texas A&M

Cal would like both of these bubble teams to lose. One has to lose, but one has to win.

---San Diego State vs. New Mexico

Similarly, Cal would prefer that both of these teams on the bubble would suffer a crippling defeat, but Cal will feel only half satisfied with the result.