How Significant Is It That One Prominent Projection Has Cal in NCAA Tournament Field?

Cal remains squarely on the NCAA tournament bubble, and one prominent site projects that the Bears would be in the tournament if the selections were today.

In any case, it’s clear that Cal’s home game against SMU (19-8, 8-6 ACC) on Wednesday is pivotal for the Bears (19-8, 7-7 ACC).

On Tuesday morning, CBS Sports projected Cal to be one of the Last Four In the 68-team field. This indicates Cal's postseason status has risen, and it shows Cal fans that the Bears have a reasonable chance of earning their first NCAA tournament berth in 10 years..

ESPN’s Bracketology on Tuesday did not have the Bears in the field, but they were close, being listed as one of the First Four Out, specifically the third team out, meaning Cal would need to pass three teams to get in.

USA Today’s projections on Tuesday also had Cal among the First Four Out.

Andy Katz’s Tuesday projections at NCAA.com were not as optimistic as Cal was not in the field and was not one of the First Four Out.

Only three of the more than 100 sites that project the NCAA tournament field have Cal in the tournament as of Tuesday, so Cal still has work to do. But last week, none had the Bears in the field.

Here’s how Cal stacks up in the important selection criteria:

Wins Above Bubble ranking: 50 (+0.36 rating, which isn’t too bad):

NET ranking: 59 (not horrible, but not great)

Record Against Quad 1 Opponents: 4-5 (quite good, and it includes one Quad1A win -- the road victory over Miami)

KenPom ranking: 66 (every bubble team is ranked higher)

Strength of Record ranking: 51 (decent)

Kevin Pauga Index ranking: 45 (pretty good)

Computer average: 52 (not bad, but it concludes Cal has only a 20 percent chance of getting an at-large bid)

Subjective Opinion of the 12 Members of the Selection Committee: Who knows? But there is only one committee member from the West Coast – West Coast Conference commissioner Stu Jackson.

One other thing to remember: The last few teams projected to make the NCAA tournament as at-large teams are likely to get bumped out of the field because of surprise winners in conference tournaments.

For example, Saint Louis is the only Atlantic 10 team that seems safely into the NCAA tournament field at the moment. But if another team wins the A-10 tournament to get that conference’s automatic NCAA tournament berth, Saint Louis would still get in as an at-large team, giving the A-10 two NCAA teams instead of one, and bumping a bubble team out of the field.

Cal has four regular-season games plus the ACC tournament remaining, and the Bears' victory over Stanford on Saturday certainly helped the Bears’ postseason hopes. But how did other results over the weekend affect the Bears’ NCAA tournament status?

Results over the weekend that helped Cal:

Texas lost to Georgia

Missouri lost to Arkansas

San Diego State lost to Colorado State

USC lost to Oregon

Ohio State lost to Michigan State

VCU lost to Saint Louis

Indiana lost to Purdue

Results over the weekend that did not help Cal:

UCLA beat Illinois

New Mexico beat Fresno State

Virginia Tech beat Wake Forest

Seton Hall beat Georgetown

Central Florida (UCF) beat Utah

Santa Clara beat San Francisco

Auburn beat Kentucky

Texas A&M beat Oklahoma

And one result in which Cal would have preferred that both team lose:

TCU beat West Virginia

Over the next two days, Cal fans should root for . . . :

Indiana to lose to Northwestern

Auburn to lose to Oklahoma

Missouri to lose to Tennessee

Santa Clara to lose to Saint Mary’s

TCU to lose to Arizona State

New Mexico to lose to Nevada

Texas to lose to Florida

Ohio State to lose to Iowa

San Diego State to lose to Utah State

VCU to lose to Fordham

West Virginia to lose to Oklahoma State

USC to lose to UCLA (although a UCLA loss might help Cal too)