Cal Ready to Kick Off a Season With Great Expectations & Unknowns

Tosh Lupoi's debut campaign looks promising but there are myriad variables that are difficult to count on yet

Tosh Lupoi | Photo courtesy of Cal Football

At last, nine months to the day since Tosh Lupoi was introduced as Cal’s new football coach, we get our first look at the 2026 Golden Bears. 

Cal opens its season Saturday night at 7:30 p.m. against long-time rival UCLA. The Bears anticipate a capacity crowd at Memorial Stadium.

Quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele is confident fans will like what they see.

“The offense, we’ve been finding our stride. We’ve been really rolling in practice,” he said. “The defense is always putting in the work to challenge us, getting us better. It’s great vibes around the whole facility from the players to the coaches to staff.

“I think you should be really excited what you’re going to see on Saturday. You’re going to want to keep coming to our games, for sure.”

This promises to be a season unlike any we’ve seen, given the tantalizing mix of unbridled fan optimism and significant unknowns, including whether the offensive line is improved and the state of a defensive unit that is starting mostly from scratch. 

Lupoi was signed to a five-year contact, so the administration understands Rome was not in a day. Even so, as Lupoi, general manager/football AD Ron Rivera and chancellor Rich Lyons all understand, there is no time to waste.

Change continues to come to big-time college football. If the Bears want to be part of the equation when the next wave of realignment arrives and if they hope to fuel a potent fundraising run and retain and attract talent, they need to win games, sell tickets and draw TV viewers.

If this team is exciting, successful and suggests there is more to come, that stream of incoming revenue figures to continue. If the Bears disappoint, how will donors react?

Cal’s schedule, while hardly easy, is favorable in a couple ways: The Bears play seven home games, just five on the road. They don’t have to play preseason ACC favorite and seventh-ranked Miami or Louisville, which is ranked No. 24 nationally and was picked third in the conference.

Looking more closely, there are two games that loom as significant obstacles: Oct. 24 at SMU, which was picked second in the ACC, and Nov. 14 at Virginia, the league’s defending champion which opened this season with a commanding 34-8 win over NC State.

These two will be tough.

There are five more games we expect the Bears to win: A week from now at Syracuse, Sept. 19 vs. Wagner, Oct. 31 at NC State, Nov. 21 vs. Stanford and Nov. 28 vs. Pitt. There are no guarantees, but if Cal wants the season it envisions, these are practically non-negotiable.

That leaves five games that will be pivotal. We’ll take them one at a time: 

— Saturday, Sept. 5 vs. UCLA: Lupoi has won at every stop, but primarily as a defensive coordinator. This will be his first game as a head coach. New Bruins coach Bob Chesney has led programs at Division III (Salve Regina), Division II (Assumption), FCS (Holy Cross) and FBS (James Madison) and brings a record of 132-52 in 16 seasons. Can the Bears overcome that experience disparity?

— Friday, Sept. 25 vs. Clemson: The Tigers have been one of college football’s most dependable winners for 15 years. But Dabo Swinney’s squad started just 3-5 a year ago on the way to a 7-6 final ledger, its worst record since 2010. The Bears likely will be underdogs here, but Lupoi will do all he can to encourage a hostile environment in what should be a sold-out stadium. This is a high-profile opportunity on ESPN.

— Saturday, October 3 at UNLV: The Rebels were a combined 21-7 in 2024 and ’25 and were unanimous favorites in a vote of coach to win the Mountain West Conference. Running back Jai’Den Thomas has rushed for more than 2,500 yards in his career. UNLV will be eager to ambush the Bears in Vegas.

— Saturday, October 10 vs. Virginia Tech: The Hokies were just 3-9 a year ago and the Bears get them in Berkeley. But James Franklin came on board as head coach and he brings a 15-year FBS record of 128-60, so we assume the Hokies will be improved. Probably much improved. 

— Saturday, October 17 at Wake Forest: This matchup begins a run of three straight road games (with a bye included in the four-week stretch). Former Washington State coach Jake Dickert took over the Demon Deacons program last season and went 9-4, with wins over SMU and Virginia.

If the Bears emerge with victories in three of those five games and the season otherwise follows the script I envision, they’ll be 8-4.

If they do that, fans, donors and recruits should all be encouraged.

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