Can Cal Climb Above its Spot at No. 84 in The Athletic's FBS Rankings?

Count Chris Vannini of The Athletic as the latest skeptic regarding the 2025 prospects of the Cal football team.

Vannini revealed his preseason rankings of all 136 FBS teams this week and the Bears check in at No. 84.

The Bears are ranked above just two of the 11 FBS teams on their schedule — San Diego State and Stanford — although they are on a virtual par with No. 81 Virginia.

Here’s his succinct evaluation of Cal:

84. Cal: After losing almost all of his top players to the portal, coach Justin Wilcox has to work some magic.

A year ago, Vannini put the Bears at No. 50 start the season and they went 6-7 with a bowl game defeat.

A few words from the author on his process:

“Some reminders: First, yes, this is a subjective exercise. I look at analytical rankings and take them into account, but what follows is just my opinion. As the season continues, I adjust based on whom teams have played and whom they’ve beaten. The preseason rankings are just an educated guess, and I don’t hold on to them. They’ll change, sometimes rapidly, as results come in, but it usually takes a few weeks for everyone to get enough data points to form strong conclusions.

“I also hold myself accountable at the end. Each year’s final rankings also include the preseason ranking. I started Ohio State at No. 1 last year, and the Buckeyes won it all. Congrats to me. I also had Arizona State at preseason No. 89 and Indiana at No. 81. Anything is possible in this beautifully dumb sport we all love.”

Vannini’s top-5: 1. Penn State; 2. Clemson; 3. Texas; 4. Ohio State; 5. Georgia.

Here we offer his ranking and analysis of the teams the Bears will face this season (excluding their Week 2 opponent):

— AUG. 30 at OREGON STATE

76. Oregon State: With new QB Maalik Murphy and a veteran secondary, Oregon State is hoping for a bowl game with a schedule that includes fellow Pac-12 holdover Washington State twice.

Our take: Cal pummeled OSU 44-7 last year in Berkeley but this will be freshman quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele’s first game and it’s on the road. For the Bears to get off to the strong start they need, this is a big one.

— SEPT. 6 vs. TEXAS SOUTHERN

NR. Texas Southern is an FCS program and therefore not eligible for The Athletic’s rankings.

Our take: The Tigers don’t figure to provide Cal with much of a challenge based on the fact they have been outscored 581-149 in 11 games vs. FBS teams over the past 10 seasons.

Minnesota running back Darius Taylor | Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

— SEPT. 13 vs. MINNESOTA

44. Minnesota: A lot of top-level talent from last year is gone, but Darius Taylor could be the best running back in the Big Ten.

Our take: We’ll know a lot more about the Bears and Golden Gophers by Sept. 13, but a victory here could launch Cal to a 4-0 start.

— SEPT. 20 at SAN DIEGO STATE

100. San Diego State: Michigan transfer QB Jayden Denegal takes control of an offense that should finally have some line depth. Coach Sean Lewis expects a breakthrough in Year 2.

Our take: Needless to say, even on the road this is a must-win for the Bears.

— SEPT. 27 at BOSTON COLLEGE

56. Boston College: Bill O’Brien always gets the most out of his teams. There is some skill talent to dream on if BC can get good enough play in the trenches.

Our take: The first of Cal’s three cross-country treks for ACC games involves against an Eagles team that comes off a bye and a game at Stanford the week before. This won’t be easy.

Former Tulane quarterback Darian Mensah | Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images

— OCT. 4 vs. DUKE

37. Duke: The Blue Devils spent big to add Tulane QB Darian Mensah, and the defense returns a lot of pieces from a good unit. The reverse Kansas, which lost most its close games in 2024, Duke went 6-1 in one-score games last year.

Our take: While the Blue Devils won the close one last season, Cal is determined to flip its own script after losing four straight ACC games by a total of nine points.

— OCT. 17: vs. NORTH CAROLINA

50. North Carolina: No one’s quite sure what to expect from Bill Belichick’s team, especially with so much roster turnover, but South Alabama QB transfer Gio Lopez is talented.

Our take: Belichick won six Super Bowls but never made it to the NFL playoffs in 10 seasons when Tom Brady wasn’t his starting quarterback. A lot remains to be seen with this squad.

— OCT. 24: at VIRGINIA TECH

61. Virginia Tech: Returning starter QB Kyron Drones and transfer RB Terion Stewart make for a good offensive foundation, but the Hokies have new starters almost everywhere.

Our take: A tough road game against a Hokies team that has a bye the previous week.

— NOV. 1: vs. VIRGINIA

81. Virginia: Transfer QB Chandler Morris brings big-play ability to an offense that really needs it.

Our take: Morris is a 25-year-old sixth-year senior making his fourth different college stop. Sagapolutele was in high school at this point last year.

Miller Moss prepares to pass during a Louisville practice | Sam Upshaw Jr./Courier Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

— NOV. 8: at LOUISVILLE

22. Louisville: I think USC transfer QB Miller Moss will have a huge year under Jeff Brohm and with a good receiving corps.

Our take: Moss was just a freshman in 2021 when the Bears saw him in a relief role during Cal’s 24-14 win over USC. He’ll be a tougher out here.

— NOV. 22 at STANFORD

93. Stanford: An interim head coach in Frank Reich and a roster that lost top pieces after the season and spring coaching change will make for a long year. This is the lowest-ranked Power 4 team.

Our take: The Bears will try to stretch their win streak in the Big Game to five games for the first time since 2002 through 2006. We expect that to happen.

— NOV. 29: vs. SMU

19. SMU: QB Kevin Jennings loses some of his best playmakers, but talented tight end RJ Maryland is back from injury.

Our take: The Bears’ total margin of defeat in six other losses last season was 28 points. The Mustangs beat them by 32 points — 38-6 — in Dallas. Cal will be eager to get another shot at the highest-ranked ACC team on its schedule in Berkeley.

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