Does Cal's 5-2 Record Suggest Bears Are Lucky or Clutch Performers?

Cal is 5-2, including 4-2 against FBS opponents, but the Bears have been outscored by 29 points (150 to 131) in those six games against FBS foes. Furthermoe, Cal would be 2-4 in those FBS games were it not for game-winning defensive plays that saved Cal wins against Boston College and North Carolina.

So is Cal simply lucky to be 2-0 in games decided by five points or fewer this season after being unlucky to have gone 1-4 in those games decided by five points or fewer last year? Or does Cal have a skill that was lacking last year?

“That’s a great quality, to find a way to win when it’s not playing your best football,” said Cal head coach Justin Wilcox. “It’s just finding a way. I think that’s the No. 1 thing.”

What constitutes that ability to "find a way" when it matters most?

“I think confidence, effort, toughness, that physical, mental emotional toughness, I think that’s a big part of it,” Wilcox said, “and creating confidence through your performance on the field, and once you make one of those plays . . . you know, Paco [Austin] is a good example, because he didn’t play a perfect game [Friday against North Carolina] but he’s shown he’s made big plays before. And once you make one, you have a better opportunity to make the next one.”

Indeed it does seem that successful teams seem to pull out games with key plays at crunch time. Miami did it against both Virgina Tech and Cal last year when the Hurricanes seemed to be headed for defeats.

Austin’s forced fumble from a North Carolina receiver at the half-yard line with less than four minutes remaining in Cal’s 21-18 victory and Luke Fennelli’s interception in the end zone that preserved Cal’s 28-24 victory over Boston College were those kind of game-winning plays.

Is that luck?

“I think you have to do everything in your power to create your own breaks,” Wilcox said. “Does the ball bounce funny sometimes? Sure it does. But you’ve got to control as many things as you possibly can, so you don’t leave the outcome up to a bouncing ball.”

If Cal beats Virginia Tech (2-5) on the road Friday in a game considered a virtual tossup, Cal would be 6-2, which would be the Bears’ best eight-game record since 2009 when Jeff Tedford was Cal’s head coach and the Bears started 6-2.

Will Cal’s good fortune run out late in the season with the most challenging part of the Bears’ schedule still to come? Or will they continue to make big plays when needed most?

The five teams Cal defeated this season have a combined record of 5-18 against FBS opponents. The Bears’ final four opponents after Virginia Tech (No. 16 Virginia, No. 19 Louisville, Stanford and SMU) have a combined record of 16-8 against FBS foes and have 10-3 record in the ACC.

Cal (2-1 in the ACC) will need some big plays over the final five games to produce a .500 or better conference record for the first time since 2009.

But they now believe they can produce game-changing plays at crunch time. And that seems to be half the battle.

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