Why Cal (5-2) Is a Slight Underdog to Virginia Tech (2-5)

Cal is 5-2 overall, 2-1 in the ACC and is coming off a victory, while Virginia Tech, which faces Cal on Friday, is 2-5 overall, 1-2 in the conference, has lost its last two games and fired its coach after three games. So obviously Cal will be favored in their game on Friday, right?

Wrong.

DraftKings, FanDuel and ESPN’s BET Sportsbook all list Virginia Tech as a 3.5-point favorite in that game against Cal as of Sunday morning.

How can that be, you may ask. Well, the point spread is apt to change between now and Friday’s game.

---UPDATE: The point spread has already changed as of Sunday afternoon. FanDuel and ESPN BET Sportsbook have Virginia Tech as a 4.5-point favorite, and Draft Kings makes Virginia Tech a 4-point favorite.---

Here are some of the possible reasons Virginia Tech is favored:

---The game is in Blacksburg, Viriginia, and being the home team is always worth a couple of points to the bookmakers when making the point spread.

---Cal must travel nearly 2,300 miles to play the game in Blacksburg, and that long-distance travel is believed to be a disadvantage. However, that has not really been apparent. This season Cal won its road game at Boston College, got handled rather easily by Duke, which traveled to Berkeley, and failed to control Friday’s game against North Carolina, which traveled across the country but nearly pulled off the upset in the Bears’ tense 21-18 victory in Berkeley.

---Virginia Tech is coming off a bye, which is generally believed to be an advantage because it allows players to recover from injuries and gives a team two weeks to prepare for its next opponent. However, the data regarding teams coming off byes does indicate any substantial advantage.

---Although Cal has won two of its past three games, it easily could be on a four-game losing streak. Luke Ferrelli’s interception in the end zone with 15 seconds left saved the Golden Bears against Boston College, and Paco Austin’s brilliant defensive play, in which he forced a fumble from a North Carolina player at the half-yard line late in the game, prevented an upset loss to North Carolina. Quite simply, Cal did not play well against North Carolina and that’s the most recent image people have of the Bears.

---Cal’s two ACC wins came against two teams (North Carolina and Boston College) that seem destined to wind up at the bottom of the ACC standings, and Cal nearly lost to both. The significance of Bears’ season-opening win over Oregon State is being minimized because the Beavers are still winless against FBS competition. And Cal lost decisively to San Diego State and Duke. Cal’s best win came against Minnesota, but that was back on September 14.

---Virginia Tech has played better since Philip Montgomery became interim head coach, replacing fired Brent Pry. Since the change, the Hokies beat North Carolina State on the road, were competitive in a loss to Wake Forest and stayed with unbeaten Georgia Tech on the road before losing 35-20. The Hokies have faced better teams than Cal has.

---Cal freshman quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele has not been as effective lately as he was in the first three games. He completed 67% of his passes with six touchdown passes and just one interception in the first three games. In the four games since then, Sagapolutele has completed 56.3% of his passes with four touchdowns and six interceptions.

---Virginia Tech quarterback Kyron Drones, who is in his third year as a starter, has thrown seven touchdown passes with two interceptions in the four games since the coaching change. He completed 61.9% of his passes with two touchdowns and one interception while rushing for 83 yards and a touchdown in the Hokies’ most recent game against Georgia Tech.

Having noted all that, Cal still has a reasonable chance to win the game on Friday. The Bears presumably will play better than they did against North Carolina, and Cal has performed pretty well on its cross-country trips since joining the ACC.

Besides this year’s win at Boston College, Cal handled Wake Forest on the road last season and was competitive in close road losses to Florida State (by five points), Pitt (by two points) and Syracuse (by eight points) in 2024.

It will be interesting to see what the point spread is when Friday’s game starts at 4:30 p.m. Pacific time on ESPN.

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