How Significant Was Cal's Overtime Upset of No. 15 Louisville?

A single play that lasted a mere four seconds and occurred 2,000 miles and three time zones from Berkeley on Saturday night changed the complexion of Cal’s season and Justin Wilcox’s job status and arguably provided Cal with its most significant win of this century.

In the books it goes down as a simple 3-yard touchdown pass from Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele to Jacob De Jesus to give Cal a 29-26 overtime victory over 15th-ranked Louisville on the road.

But if Sagapolutele had been sacked on that fourth-down play as he had been three times previously . . . .

Or if Sagapolutele had been overwhelmed by the moment and had overthrown De Jesus for an incompletion . . . .

Or if De Jesus had dropped the pass . . . .

Or if De Jesus had been pushed out of bounds inches short of the goal-line . . . .

If any of those things had happened, the questions and criticism would have been immediate.

---Why did Wilcox go for an all-or-nothing touchdown when a sure-bet field goal would have tied it and sent the game to a second overtime?

---Why can’t Cal break through with a major upset when the opportunity is there?

---How could Cal lose a game in which it rolled up 427 yards of offense against the team that leads the ACC in total defense?

---How could Cal be blowing its chance to land a bowl berth after being 5-2 just a few weeks earlier, with a sixth straight losing season seeming inevitable?

---Will Wilcox’s decision, the resulting play, the many pre-snap penalties and the three-game losing streak lead to the conclusion that he will lose his job?

But the pass was completed, the Bears did win, and the reaction was completely different.

---Wilcox showed courage and confidence in his team by making the bold and successful choice to try to win it on fourth-down from the 3-yard line. He said afterward there was never a thought of kicking the field goal, and it quieted talk – at least for now – that he does not deserve to be Cal’s head coach next season.

---Sagapolutele demonstrated the poise and talent to pull off the big play when needed most.

---For the third time this season, Cal won a game with a big play at the end, giving the Bears a 3-1 record in games decided by four points or fewer on in overtime, a completely different scenario from past seasons under Wilcox when the Bears lost close games.

---De Jesus, a guy who did not receive a single FBS offer coming out of high school because he is just 5-foot-7 (maybe), made his 16th reception of the game, this one a game-winner, to give him 73 catches for the season, third most in the country.

---Cal got a win that gives the Bears a 6-4 record overall and 3-3 in the conference, making Cal bowl-eligible and putting the Bears in position, with two regular-season games left, to post their first winning season since 2019 and finish with a winning percentage of .500 or better in conference play for the first time since 2009. The Bears’ ugly streak of 15 consecutive seasons with losing conference records is the longest such streak in the country, and Bears could end it with a win over Stanford in two weeks.

---Cal recorded its first win over a ranked team in five years, ending a streak of 14 straight losses to ranked teams. The Bears won their first game against a top-15 team in seven years and got their first road win over a top-15 team in 16 years.

All those factors, plus the impact it had on the ACC race and College Football Playoff possibilities, add up to a win that compares favorably with any victory Cal has pulled off in this century.

Cal was an 18.5-point underdog in this game, making it the biggest upset win since Wilcox became head coach in 2017. It bettered the 2017 Cal victory over Washington State when the Cougars were ranked No. 8 and favored by 14.5 points.

That win was in Berkeley. The fact that Saturday’s win came on the road 2,000 miles away makes it that much more impressive. Cal had not defeated a top-15 team on the road since 2009, when Cal knocked off Stanford, which was ranked 14th in the AP poll at the time. But Cal was 7-3 entering that game, had been ranked as high as No. 6 earlier that season and was not much of an underdog against the Cardinal in that game 16 years ago.

You have to go back to 2003 when Cal, in its second season under Jeff Tedford and in Aaron Rodgers’ second start at Cal, knocked off third-ranked USC in triple overtime to find a win of comparable significance. USC would go on to win the national championship that season.

However, even that Cal win was played in the comfortable atmosphere of Cal’s Memorial Stadium, and no point spread was readily available for that game.

The previous year, Cal upset 15th-ranked Michigan State on the road in the Bears’ third game that season, but the Spartans were vastly overrated that year, finishing with a 4-8 record.

Cal beat 13th-ranked UCLA in three overtimes in 2000, but again that game was in Berkeley, and the Bruins finished the season with a 6-6 record, including 3-5 in the Pac-10.

And let's repeat: Cal was an 18.5-point underdog against Louisville.

There is no question Cal’s win over Louisville this late in the season had a major impact.

If Cal had failed on its fourth-and-3 play in overtime, Louisville would be 8-1, tied for first place in the ACC and a solid contender for a spot in the College Football Playoff. Instead the Cardinals are in fifth place in the conference, needing help to get to the ACC title game and a long shot for a CFP berth even if they win their remaining games.

“Being able to beat this team, a ranked team, really shows how good of a team we are and how much potential we have,” said De Jesus.

Of course, Saturday’s Cal win will lose much of its importance if the Bears lose to Stanford in two weeks and/or get crushed by SMU in three weeks. But perceptions in college football are based on the most recent result, and Saturday night’s upset is still fresh in the minds of Cal fans.

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