Why Cal Can Defy ESPN Analytics’ Bleak Prediction for Bears’ Final 4 Games

ESPN Analytics crunch a series of numbers based on a team’s efficiency and talent measurements as well as wins and losses and margin of victory to predict the likelihood that one college football team will beat another. And the results it comes up with this week paint a bleak picture for Cal.

ESPN Analytics make Cal (5-3, 2-2 ACC) an underdog in all four of its remaining games – against Virginia, Louisville, Stanford and SMU – and if that prediction comes true it will result in this:

---A 5-7 overall Cal record, the Bears’ sixth straight losing season and no bowl game.

---A 2-6 ACC record and the Bears’ 16th consecutive season with a losing record in conference games.

---A five-game losing to streak to end the season and a 2-7 record over the final nine games, putting Justin Wilcox’s job in serious jeopardy.

But the ESPN Analytics are just numbers. Let’s look at the ESPN Analytics as of October 29 for each of Cal’s remaining games, the likelihood that Cal’s opponent is predicted to win each game and an assessment of why Cal could defy the analytics.

Saturday, November 1: No. 15 Virginia (7-1) at Cal (5-3).

ESPN Analytics give Virginia a 67.6% chance of winning the game

Why Cal could beat the numbers: Virginia has won six games in a row, but the Cavaliers have barely won their past four games – three of which went into overtime, with the Virginia winning the fourth game at home by two points on a safety with less than three minutes left against Washington State. It means the Cavaliers were just one play in each game away from being 3-5.

The Cavaliers’ luck has to run out at some point, and it could be at Berkeley, where the Bears are 3-1 this season. Cal would be 6-2 and riding a two-game winning streak if Chase Meyer had made a 49-yard field goal with one second left last Friday, a game Cal lost in overtime to Virginia Tech.

Virginia quarterback Chandler Morris seems a little beat up, while Cal true freshman quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele seems to be putting things together for a breakout performance.

Saturday, November 8: Cal at No. 19 Louisville (6-1)

ESPN Analytics give Louisville a 90.8% chance of winning the game

Why Cal could beat the numbers: Granted, this is a high likelihood of defeat for Cal, and this road game is the least likely Cal victory in its four remaining games.

However, Louisville struggled to beat a lousy Boston College team in its most recent game, scoring the clinching touchdown with less than two minutes left in a 14-point victory over the Eagles. Plus Louisville has not been particularly dominant in any of its ACC games, and it lost to Virginia at home.

The Cardinals’ three-point win over Miami was achieved because of four Miami turnovers, and Louisville’s seven-point win over Pitt was greatly aided by five Panthers turnovers. Cal should be able to avoid that kind of turnover disaster since the Bears have not committed any turnovers in their past two games.

Louisville’s Isaac Brown is an outstanding running back, but he has been a bit fumble-prone, and quarterback Miller Moss ranks only 11th in the ACC in passer rating. If Sagapolutele has the kind of spectacular game he seems capable of having and the Bears get a few breaks, who knows?

Saturday November 22, Cal at Stanford (3-5)

ESPN Analytics give Stanford a 54.9% chance of winning the game

Why Cal could beat the numbers: Stanford is only slight favorite according to the analytics, and it wouldn’t take much to turn things in Cal’s favor.

Stanford and its quarterback, Ben Gulbranson, are better than the preseason predictions, and Stanford has improved since the start of the season under interim head coach Frank Reich, as indicated by its October 19 win over Florida State. .

However, this is a Stanford team that lost by 28 points to Virginia, by 24 points to SMU and by 35 points this past weekend to Miami, which outscored Stanford 35-0 in the second half of that game. Stanford faces another challenging game this week against Pitt and plays an improving North Carolina squad after that, so the Cardinal might not flying high by the time it faces Cal.

Stanford is just 2-3 at home this season, and Justin Wilcox seems to have Stanford’s number. Cal has won the past four Big Games and five of the past six. Cal is 3-1 on the road against Stanford since Wilcox became the Bears’ head coach, the only road loss coming in Wilcox’s first season at Cal in 2017, when the 20th-ranked Cardinal beat unranked Cal 17-14 in a game that was as close as the score.

Saturday, November 29: SMU (5-3) at Cal

ESPN Analytics give SMU a 77.5% chance of winning the game

Why Cal could beat the numbers: SMU is a quality team, but the Mustangs are not the national powerhouse they were expected to be when they were ranked No. 16 in the preseason poll. SMU lost this past weekend to Wake Forest 13-12, which indicates vulnerability.

SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings is a big-time dual threat, but he has been less efficient as a passer recently, completing 53.7% of his passes, with two touchdowns and two interceptions over the past two games.

The Mustangs are just 2-2 on the road, with one of those their road wins coming against Missouri State, a member of Conference USA that lost to USC 73-13.

Cal is 3-1 at home, and if the Bears can play as well as they did in the 27-14 victory over Minnesota in Berkeley, they stand a decent chance against SMU.

The ESPN Analytics predictions will change over the coming weeks based on the results of games yet to be played.

Obviously, we are providing an optimistic perspective on Cal's remaining schedule rather than an objective assessment. But if things fall neatly into place for Cal . . . . .

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