Why Virginia, Unbeaten in the ACC, Isn't Higher in ESPN's SP+ Ratings

The Virginia team that visits Memorial Stadium to face Cal on Saturday afternoon is one of just two teams still unbeaten in ACC play and is ranked No. 15 in the AP Top-25.

But not every metric is applauding the Cavaliers, despite their 7-1 overall record, six-game win streak and 4-0 ledger in ACC play.

Bill Connelly’s SP+ rankings on ESPN have Virginia at No 52, which is just ninth among 17 ACC teams. Miami is ranked highest in the SP+ listings at No. 11, but even Florida State and Clemson, each with 3-4 win-loss records, are above the Cavaliers at Nos. 34 and 48.

Cal (5-3, 2-2) is 12th among ACC teams in the SP+ ratings at No. 80.

What’s important to understand is that Connelly’s formula is “a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” and does not focus solely on what a team has done so far, but is “intended to be predictive and forward-facing.”

In other words, based on what we know, what can we expect from a given team the rest of the way?

Virginia’s schedule, after visiting Cal, is hardly overwhelming. The Cavaliers return home to Wake Forest, then go on the road to play Duke before losing the regular season at home against Virginia Tech. Those three teams have a combined record of 11-11.

The SP+ rankings suggest Virginia’s road may not be clear sailing.

Where does this come from?

Mostly likely from this portion of the ratings’ definition:

“It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you're lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you're strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.”

We’re not suggesting Virginia has been lucky, but Connelly’s computer may have its own ideas based on the team’s four most recent games:

Sept. 26: A 46-38 double-overtime win vs then-No. 8 Florida State, settled when quarterback Chandler Morris, who had thrown three interceptions, ran 4 yards for a touchdown then threw a 2-point conversion pass to win it in the second extra period

Oct. 4: A 30-27 overtime victory at Louisville in which the Cavaliers squadered a 10-point lead in the fourth quarter then pulled it out in OT

Oct. 18: A 22-20 home victory over Washington State that was decided by a safety

Oct. 25: A 17-16 overtime win at North Carolina in which the Tar Heels fell inches short of converting what would have been a game-winning two-point try in OT

The reality is, Virginia found ways to win all four. Whether that’s sustainable over the next month remains to be seen.

We’ll see if Cal has what it takes to derail a team on a mission.

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