Will Cal QB Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele Be the Nation's Best Sophomore in 2026?

Was the outstanding freshman season Cal quarterback Jaron-Keawe had in 2025 a fluke or a sign of great things to come?

We will find out soon, because the second college season is when a player’s talent is revealed.

An outstanding freshman season could be a product of fortuitous bounces, a favorable schedule and a confidence level never interrupted by a poor performance. The next season bad breaks, an inability to handle expectations, a loss of confidence or a change in the team’s style could lead to a disappointing sophomore season.

Likewise a player can show remarkable improvement after a mediocre freshman season and become a star as a sophomore, because of natural maturation, a boost in confidence, a coaching change, better surrounding talent, or a style that suits his skills.

A lot is expected of Sagapolutele in his sophomore season, and a lot of that optimism is based on how well he performed late in the 2025 season. Over the final four games of his freshman season, he completed 68.1 percent of his passes with seven touchdown passes and no interceptions.

But how will he perform with expectation for him being so high? Some have even listed him as a darkhorse Heisman Trophy candidate.

He will be operating under a new head coach (Tosh Lupoi) in a new offensive system -- a pro-style offense under first-year offensive coordinator Jordan Somerville.

One bad game can sometimes affect a quarterback’s confidence and lead to a downward spiral.

.Those are some of the reasons ESPN's ranking of FBS quarterback tiers places Sagapolutele in category No. 5 because we just don't know enough about him after one freshman season.

Nonetheless, CBS Sports projects Sagapolutele will be the second-best sophomore in the nation in 2026 in its May article titled College football's second-year stars: Sophomore standouts that will define the 2026 playoff race

No one disputes CBS’ choice of Miami wide receiver Malachi Toney as the No. 1 sophomore in 2026. As a freshman, he led the nation in receptions with 109 (one more than Cal’s Jacob De Jesus, who played three fewer games than Toney) and demonstrated his game-breaking skills in last season’s College Football Playoff. With Darian Mensah as his quarterback in 2026, Toney may be just as dangerous as a sophomore.

But sitting at No. 2 on the CBS Sports list is Sagapolutele, even though the Bears finished just 7-6 in 2025 with Sagapolutele as their quarterback for all 13 games.

CBS Sports reminded us why expectations are so high for Sagapolutele.

Sagapolutele already looks the part physically with the arm talent to attack every blade of grass, but what makes him especially dangerous is his poise.

Indeed the chief reason Sagapolutele deserves to be ranked No. 2 is his mental makeup.

You can tell a lot about a player’s mental toughness after a loss. Even as a freshman, he answered difficult questions about a defeat or a poor personal performance without flinching, providing insightful answers each time.

And you don’t have to be a quarterback coach to see the accuracy and velocity he has with his effortless left-handed throws.

He’s proven he can see the field, and pick out secondary receivers, and that skill is not going to disappear.

The targets Lupoi has added through the transfer portal – wide receivers Ian Strong and Chase Hendricks and tight end Dorian Thomas – give Sagapolutele proven pass receivers.

Finally, the Bears’ schedule – home games against UCLA and Clemson, and no games against Miami or Louisville – should benefit Sagapolutele and minimize the chance for a confidence-destroying performance.

So there seems to be only three factors that could derail Sagapolutele’s sophomore season:

--- 1. Injury.

--- 2. Ineffective offensive line play. Sagapolutele has a good feel for moving within the pocket, but escapability is not his strong suit. He was sacked 30 times last season.

Cal added some offensive linemen through the transfer portal in the offseason, and the line must be better in 2026. Cal ranked next to last in the country in rushing last season, and if there is no run-game threat Sagapolutele’s challenge becomes much greater.

---3. New offensive system. Cal offensive coordinator Jordan Somerville has never been an offensive coordinator before and he is bringing in a pro-style offense, which is different from what Cal ran in 2025. That style will help Sagapolutele prepare for the NFL, but it remains to be seen whether it suits him in college.

However, Sagapolutele’s adaptability is one of his strengths, so it’s a good bet that he will prosper in the new offense.

Obviously, Sagapolutele’s performance as a sophomore will have a major impact on Cal’s win-loss record in 2026, and that record will determine how much national acclaim he receives.

It should be noted that neither of the past two Heisman Trophy winners – Fernando Mendoza in 2025 and Travis Hunter in 2024 – were among the preseason contenders for the award. So starting the season in the background will not hamper Sagapolutele’s chances for postseason accolades.

Sagapolutele’s sophomore season will be judged to a large extent by his performance in the Bears’ final regular-season game against Pitt, when he goes against CBS Sports’ second-highest rated sophomore quarterback, Mason Heintschel.

It's worth remembering that Sagapolutele was not named to the first-, second- or third-team all-ACC squad last season and wasn't even one of the two other ACC quarterbacks who received honorable mention. His freshman season only showed the possibility of what he could become. The 2026 season will tell us just how good Sagapolutele is and whether he is likely to be a first-round pick in the 2028 NFL draft.

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