Will Cal’s Bye This Week Be an Advantage for the Bears?

Cal has the first of its two byes of the 2025 season this weekend, and the general feeling is that a team coming off a bye has an advantage in its next game. However, that notion is disputable and the Bears have a counterintuitive record in games after byes under Justin Wilcox.

The two presumed advantages of a bye are that the players get extra time to rest in a physical sport such as football and teams get an additional week to prepare for the upcoming opponent. The counter argument is that a bye takes teams out of their one-week, recover-practice-game routine, and athletes typically perform better when they’re on a routine.

Cal’s byes this season may not mean much because in both cases – North Carolina on Friday, October 17 and Stanford on November 22 – the Golden Bears’ opponent will also be coming off byes, canceling any advantage the off week might present.

Somewhat surprisingly, reports, such as this one by Saurdays.com, suggest that a team coming off a bye has a small but negligible advantage in its next game. This season so far, FBS teams coming off a bye have a 40-38 record, hardly a substantial edge.

There are debates about why all four teams that received a bye in last year’s College Football Playoff lost their opening game.

In the most significant such game this season, Penn State lost at home to Oregon in overtime when the Nittany Lions were coming off a bye.

Cal has not had a bye yet, but it has played two games against teams that were coming off byes.

That advantage seemed to help San Diego State, which was a 14-point underdog to Cal but whipped the Bears 34-0 after losing to Washington State 36-13 in its previous game two weeks earlier.

However, Cal beat Boston College 28-24 even though the Eagles had a week off following their loss to Stanford. It should be noted that Boston College is 0-4 against FBS schools this season, including a 10-point loss to Stanford and a 41-point loss to Pitt last week.

Cal has played 11 games coming off a bye week since Wilcox was hired prior to the 2017 season. The Bears were just 4-7 in those games. Cal’s opponent had not played the previous week either in four of those games, but in the contests in which Cal was coming off a bye and its opponent wasn’t, the Bears were just 2-5.

Here is a rundown of those 11 games in which Cal had a bye the previous week (an asterisk is beside games in which Cal’s opponent also had a bye the week before):

November 18, 2017 – Stanford 17, Cal 14

Cal had a bye the previous week and Stanford didn’t, but Cal lost that Big Game despite 153 yards rushing by the Bears’ Patrick Laird.

September 29, 2018 – Oregon 42, Cal 24

Cal was 3-0, ranked 24th and coming off a bye when it was handed a defeat by 19th-ranked Oregon, which had lost to Stanford the week before.

November 24, 2018 – Cal 31, Colorado 21

The Bears had a week off following a road win over USC, and Colorado had lost six straight coming into that game against, including a 30-7 defeat against Utah the previous week.

October 19, 2019 – Oregon State 17, Cal 11

Cal had not played a game the week before, while Oregon State had lost to Utah 52-7 a week earlier.

*November 9, 2019 – Cal 33, Washington State 20

The Bears had a week off following a 35-0 loss to Utah, and Washington State also had a bye the previous week after losing to Oregon 37-35 two weeks earlier.

*October 16, 2021 – Oregon 24, Cal 17

Both teams were coming off byes, and Cal failed to score a tying (or go-ahead) touchdown on a fourth-and-2 incomplete pass with two seconds left in Eugene, Oregon, against ninth-ranked Oregon.

November 20, 2021 – Cal 41, Stanford 11

The Bears had not played the previous week and rolled up 636 yards of offense on Stanford, which had lost to Oregon State 35-14 seven days earlier.

*October 15, 2022 – Colorado 20, Cal 13 (OT)

Both teams were coming off a bye, but this was Buffaloes’ only win in a 1-11 season.

October 28, 2023 – USC 50, Cal 49

In Fernando Mendoza’s third college start, the Bears, who were coming off a bye, nearly beat 24th-ranked USC, which had lost to Utah by two points the week before.

October 5, 2024 – Miami 39, Cal 38

Cal had a week off following a close loss to Florida State and held a 35-10 lead midway through the third quarter against eighth-ranked Miami, which had won a four-point Friday night game against Virginia Tech eight days earlier.

*November 6, 2024 – Cal 46, Wake Forest 36

Both teams were coming off byes when Cal traveled to the East Coast to pick up a road win.

Logic and history suggest there are only two possible advantages to a bye week:

---1. If a significant player or players have time to heal in the off week, allowing him or them to play in the next game after missing playing time.

The only possible returning player for Cal is kicker Abram Murray if he is ready to play against North Carolina after missing the past two games. The Bears’ Chase Meyer is 3-for-4 in field-goal attempts. Cal played without two starters – safety Isaiah Crosby and outside linebacker Ryan McCulloch – in the loss to Duke, but both players are out for the season.

---2. If the team makes significant lineup or strategy changes during the off week.

Cal will have time to make changes with a week off, but it’s unclear what alterations it would make.

There don’t seem to be many major changes Cal can make on defense despite its struggles against Duke, and while wide receiver Jordan King might get increased playing time, the only changes on offense are likely to come on the offensive line, which gave up six sacks against Duke and has yet to open up a consistent running game.

However, Cal has started the same five offensive linemen in each of the past four games, so it remains to be seen what moves it can make up front.

It will be interesting see how offensive coordinator Bryan Harsin tweaks the offense. It might just be a matter of getting freshman quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele to get rid of the ball quicker or attempt more high-percentage, low-risk passes.

Both of those presumed advantages of a bye week could affect a team for the rest of the season, not just for the next game.

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