Cincinnati Basketball Keys to the Game: BYU Cougars

The Big 12 era ramps up for UC this weekend.

Author:
Russ Heltman
Updated:
Jan 5, 2024 5:58 PM EST

In this story:

CINCINNATI — Cincinnati starts life in the Big 12 on the road Saturday against No. 12 BYU. The Cougars are likely to be at full strength while the Bearcats won't have CJ Fredrick and could see Aziz Bandaogo return.

They could really use the latter in a matchup against the No. 4 team in KenPom rankings, to Cincinnati's No. 40 mark. BYU enters the game as an 82.6% ESPN matchup predictor favorite in what would be the best win by any team this season if Cincinnati can pull off the upset.

The Bearcats have been at full strength for one game this season (Dayton) and that featured Bandaogo's early injury and Jamille Reynolds's debut. So hardly a true showcase of what this team can be.

This is the fourth all-time meeting between the teams and first since the 2001 NCAA Tournament. No. 5 Cincinnati won that game 84-59 over No. 12 BYU to open play in San Diego.

The Cougars enter this game with nine of Evan Miya’s top 250 players, the most in the country.

Let's dive into the key faces and figures for this matchup.

When BYU Has The Ball

The Cougars sport arguably the best offensive depth in the country. Six players averaging at least 10 points per game to power a 90.4 PPG average (fourth nationally). The three-point shot has a lot to do with the seventh-most-efficient offense nationally.

BYU is shooting an astounding 38% (23rd) from deep on 33.8 triple tries per game (second nationally), leading to the nation's most makes per game (12.8 threes). The compounding impact of Bandaogo's rim protection is crucial in slowing this down. With him on the floor, Cincinnati sports a clamping 88.2 defensive rating because perimeter defenders can play tighter knowing Bandaogo is there to clean up blow bys.

Leading scorer Jaxson Robinson (16.7 points, 2.8 rebounds) is a bucket force at 6-foot-7, 193 pounds. The slinky wing has been hyper-efficient, shooting 41.4% from three on 7.3 attempts. This section would read like a CVS receipt if I highlighted all the other talented scorers behind him.

This is one of the deepest teams in the country with 10 players averaging at least 14 minutes per game this season. Six of those rotation players are shooting at least 38% from deep. Six, that's not a typo.

All in all, just know this, of the 10 BYU players to play at least 120 minutes so far, eight of those players are posting a 53.5%-plus true shooting rate. For perspective, Cincinnati has five players hitting that mark and the top two in the stat are Fredrick and Bandaogo, huge fulcrum pieces for this team.

BYU will have all of its firepower with Fousseyni Traore (10.2 points, 5.5 rebounds) returning from a multi-game injury absence. Whoever suits up for Cincinnati has to play elite on-ball defense to shake these shooters away from the three-point line, while trying to outrebound one of the only teams in the country better on that front (44.4 BYU rebounds per game, fourth nationally).

Another reason why getting Bandaogo back at as close to full strength as possible will determine if Cincinnati can cover the betting spread, let alone pull off a win.

When Cincinnati Has The Ball

Can Cincinnati's shooting keep up with BYU if there's no Fredrick? That's the biggest question as Fredrick's been a poor two-point shooter but his gravity from outside is clearly affecting defenses.

UC sports a whopping 136.3 offensive rating with him on the floor (close to the same number for Bandaogo at 136.6). Missing both would be curtains against a team with this scoring versatility and an elite defense to match. BYU is first nationally in point differential (plus-28.8 points per game) thanks to a defense ranked 10th in adjusted efficiency while allowing 61.5 points per game (12th nationally).

It's amazing how analytically sound this team is. BYU is just as good at defending the three as it is at making them, allowing opponents to hit 25.7% of their threes (fourth nationally) on 20.1 attempts (87th-best). Cincinnati's going to have to win this game with elite ball movement and an offensive showcase down low by Viktor Lakhin and slashing wing scorers.

BYU is closer to average defending inside the arc and doesn't have a ton of size, although they'll throw 6-foot-11 leading-rebounder Noah Waterman (11.8 points 6.6 rebounds, 0.4 blocks) at UC's bigs. Lakhin and Bandaogo have to dominate this matchup and shoot close to 70% or better around the rim to overcome the three-point math disadvantage.

There is no weak link for Cincinnati's perimeter scorers to attack off the dribble. The active hands from BYU are present all over the roster, as five Cougars have at least 10 steals this season. Good luck trying to eliminate this depth with foul trouble. BYU is giving up just nine made free throws per game (fifth nationally).

Lakhin has to play one of the best games of his career, more post impact from Reynolds, plus, Bandaogo has to continue setting elite screens and cleaning the offense glass for Cincinnati's offense to keep up in this one.

Prediction: 84-73 BYU

Too much depth, too much shooting, too hard of an environment.

UC could maybe pull off an upset at complete full strength but that hasn't happened for any games yet this season and they won't have enough offense without Fredrick. Lakhin posts a 15-point double-double, and Reynolds stays efficient, but they can't carry the whole load as Cincinnati gets held to single-digit makes from outside to lag behind.

BYU catches a second-half shooting heater and overwhelms with waves of talent against a thinner UC team that wears down at elevation in the closing minutes.

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