Cincinnati Bearcats Basketball 2025-26 Storylines: West Virginia Mountaineers

CINCINNATI — The Bearcats rekindle their longstanding rivalry with West Virginia in basketball on Tuesday at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN2.

Both teams are still searching for their first Big 12 wins of the season after dropping their openers in league play. UC enters the game ranked 65th on KenPom, while West Virginia is 71st. ESPN's Matchup Predictor gives Cincinnati a 28.4% chance to win this game as the projected betting underdogs.

The Bearcats have beaten just one top-100 KenPom this season in Dayton (79th), and essentially have to win this game to keep any hope alive for the NCAA Tournament, needing 14 conference wins before the Big 12 Tournament begins.

It marks UC's second Quad 2 outing of the season, losing the first one to Xavier in Norwood. The Bearcats just lost a winnable 67-60 game to No. 8 Houston.

"Our crowd was awesome and lifted us, but we’re definitely frustrated and angry about the result," Wes Miller said. "We’ve got to get over it. We play West Virginia in a couple of days, and we have to learn from this. We have to learn how to finish, and we have to get ready to go play West Virginia in a couple of days and turn the page. It’s Big 12 play – every game matters, everyone counts the same – and we’re going to try to turn the page quickly. Take the good from this. Learn from the bad.”

They don't all count the same. That was another Quad 1 loss to move Miller to 9-43 all-time at UC in those games. He is 18-12 in Q2 outings like Tuesday's. WVU leads the all-time series 13-12 after sweeping UC in two matchups last season.

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Tuesday represents a tough matchup for a UC team that's struggled on offense all season. West Virginia profiles in a similar way to what Houston does. They have one of the best defenses in the country (61.6 ppg allowed, sixth nationally, 51st in adjusted defensive efficiency) and slow games down to a crawl (359th in adjusted tempo, 53.7 field goal attempts allowed, 19th).

They are going to force Cincinnati to win in the half-court, limit transition possessions (only 10.6 turnovers per game, 66th), and try to grind this game into a winning score somewhere amidst the 60s. Jasper Floyd (7.9 points, 3.3 rebounds, 3.6 assists) is one of the best on-ball defenders in the country at 6-3, 195 pounds, and spearheads this nasty WVU defense.

He will give plenty of problems to Cincinnati's backcourt, which has been super adept at creating assists this season, but that cratered without Kerr Kriisa on Sunday. UC logged 12 dimes total after he played just seven minutes. The veteran's been a bad shooter almost the entire campaign, but his 27.7% assist rate comfortably leads the team.

The offense could get even more junked up if he can't play through a separated shoulder.

"Injuries are tough," Miller said after Saturday's loss. "We've had more than damn anybody in the last four years in all of college basketball, but we're gonna keep coming. This team's had its fair share, and we're still right there. So yeah, that stinks. Hope we get him back. But it was a serious matter. He came back in, he made that shot, and he couldn't even lift that left shoulder above his head. So let's hope it's not anything serious and long-term, but I'm worried about it."

It's hard to see Cincinnati eclipsing 65 points in this game if it doesn't start hitting open jump shots, and they won't have a ton of excess chances for those. Teams are limited to just 19 attempts per game from deep against WVU (20th nationally), but are striking them at a 35.3% rate (290th in percentage allowed).

If Cincinnati can manufacture those shots, the Mountaineers will leave them open, a big if against one of the longest teams I've ever seen UC play. 5-10 leading scorer Honor Huff (16.6 points, 40% from deep on 9.6 attempts) and Floyd are the only rotation players shorter than 6-5. There is length all over the floor for this ripping WVU defense.

Add in great discipline (14.6 fouls per game, 19th nationally), and you get plenty of reasons why this team is 9-0 at home this season with every win but one by at least 16 points. Cincinnati will have to play very well, especially if Kriisa is out, to avoid an 8-7 record at the season's midpoint.

Catch all of the action at 7 p.m. ET tomorrow on ESPN2.

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