Cincinnati Bearcats Basketball Keys to the Game: No. 5 Houston Cougars

UC has lost nine consecutive games in this rivalry.

Author:
Russ Heltman
Updated:
Feb 8, 2024 9:26 AM EST

In this story:

CINCINNATI — The Bearcats are trying to break a brutal losing streak on Saturday as No. 5 Houston comes to town. Cincinnati's lost nine consecutive games in this series as the program has treaded water this decade, while Houston is posting one of its best successful runs.

Cincinnati enters the game ranked No. 33 in the NET and No. 31 on KenPom, while Houston sits at No. 1 in the NET and No. 1 on KenPom.

Kelvin Sampson's team is arguably the best squad in the country and holds a 79.7% chance of beating Cincinnati on ESPN's Matchup Predictor.

The Bearcats are one of just 17 teams in the nation with a positive conference point differential, but a losing record in conference play as they try to get back to .500 in America's toughest league.

When Houston Has The Ball

Volume, Volume, Volume.

Cincinnati has to withstand the wave of rebounding and different lineups Houston uses, led offensively by Baylor transfer guard LJ Cryer (15.6 points, 2.6 rebounds). The Cougars are one of the worst shooting teams in conference play, ranking 11th in FG rate (42.9%), but we all know why they are still a relatively successful offense.

Houston is one of the best rebounding teams in the country and ranks first in Big 12 play with 34.4 rebounds per game (11.4 offensive rebounds).

That offensive number will ultimately decide this game, if Cincinnati can win the glass battle at home, or at least keep it within five, they may have enough of their shot volume to win.

Cincinnati's frontcourt has to be on point with its box outs and physicality in this game to combat the Houston offensive rebounding prowess. It's a fundamental requirement from every Houston rotation member, few teams execute on the glass as well as the Cougars top to bottom (all nine players average at least 2.3 boards). The Bearcats shouldn't have to worry about any scorching performances from a rotation with one player posting a 52% effective field goal rate or better.

The top guys to knock down efficiency-wise are J'Whan Roberts (8.6 points, seven rebounds) and Ja'Vier Francis (six points, 5.3 rebounds). The forwards lead the rotation in eFG% and are great at cleaning up longer misses for easier looks at the rim.

Aziz Bandaogo, Viktor Lakhin, Jamille Renolds, and the whole UC rotation in general have to beast on the boards to take away the Houston offensive superpower

When Cincinnati Has the Ball

Hope.

That's really all Houston opponents can do on offense against the best defense in the nation (54.4 points allowed, first nationally, 86.3 adjusted defensive efficiency, first nationally).

Cryer (91.6 defensive rating) is the one rotation player that you could point out as a weakness on defense, but for context, that rating would still be first for Cincinnati and is last among all Houston players. It's a completely sound unit, anchored by Francis down low (1.4 blocks, 0.8 steals), and guard Jamal Shead (12.5 points, 5.8 assists, 2.2 steals).

Those two are big reasons why Houston is on a different tier when it comes to causing havoc plays among Power Six teams. They rank eighth nationally in steals per game (10.1) and 31st in blocks (4.9). Can Day Day Thomas, Simas Lukošius, and Jizzle James stay collected and put on a ballhandling show?

That's what Houston has required from its opponents to be kept from easy fast break opportunities, which they pair with a grinding offensive pace (348th in adjusted tempo). Two of the three teams who've beaten Houston this season have posted just 11 and 12 turnovers, while Kansas turned it over 17 times this past weekend, but shot 69% to Houston's 36% mark.

Taking care of the ball to even further limit the extra shots for a weaker offense compared to that devilish defense is a massive factor in this game.

Prediction: 68-64 Houston

The streak rolls to 10 games on Saturday as Cincinnati puts up its best recent fight against Houston. Both sides take the air out of the ball and commit very few turnover mistakes, but UC can't keep the rebounding battle close enough to win.

Shead makes a crucial shot in the final minute as Cincinnati carries on its status as one of the hardest teams in the country to blow out (82-68 loss to Dayton only defeat this season by six-plus points).

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