Cincinnati Bearcats Basketball Storylines: No. 8 Houston Cougars

CINCINNATI — The 2026 Big 12 basketball schedule is here for the Cincinnati Bearcats. They take on No. 8 Houston on Saturday at 2 p.m. ET inside Fifth Third Arena, searching for their first win over the Cougars of the Wes Miller era.

Houston enters the game 12-1 overall, while UC is near the bottom of the Big 12 at 8-5. The Cougars have a 78.5% chance to win on ESPN's Matchup Predictor as the 12th-best team on KenPom. UC is 63rd.

Cincinnati has lost 12 consecutive games in this series and really needs to start strong in conference play, looking at a 14-conference win bar to clear for any real hope at the NCAA Tournament.

Fifth-year senior guard Emanuel Sharp leads the Cougars with 17.0 points per game, while freshman guard Kingston Flemings averages 15.3, and senior guard Milos Uzan pours in another 11.1 per game. The Cougars are the top scoring defense in the Big 12 and rank third nationally at 60.0 points per game.

Cincinnati holds a 33-17 lead in the all-time series and a 17-4 advantage in games played at home. They are fresh off their best game of the season, an 89-62 home win over Lipscomb.

“It gives us a lot of confidence," UC star Baba Miller said after that win. "The plays really connected from the jump. We made a lot of unselfish plays. We had a lot of plays where guys could have taken a good shot, but we decided to keep moving and finding a great shot, and then we have players like Kerr [Kriisa] open and Jalen [Celestine], and they were able to knock out shots there."

Cincinnati is 1-1 in Big 12 season openers since entering the league.

Fastbreak Storyline: Can UC Compete With Big 12's Best?

-12.7

That's a glaring number that UC has to overcome in this "rivalry," which hasn't really lived up to that term since Mick Cronin left the program a decade ago. Miller, as mentioned, is 0-9 against the Cougars with that -12.7 average point differential.

They've rarely ever competed with Houston for a full 40 minutes, let alone come close to beating them at home or on the road. Miller is a horrific 9-42 in Quad 1 games entering this outing, and another loss will drive home even more declarations that this season is already over. An upset starts and ends with Cincinnati's outside shot falling.

They have lived and died by the three-ball more than ever this season and even more so in these contests. Across their three Big 12 battles against Houston, UC's made just 17 total threes. It's hard to see them coming close to winning on Saturday without at least 9-12 of those going in.

Much easier said than done, Houston once again has one of the nation's best defenses, especially jump shooting defense (45.9% allowed from two, 47th nationally, 29% from deep, 37th). The pipeline of long, hungry, relentless man-to-man defenders seemingly never ends from this program. 6-7 mauling forward Joseph Tugler (7.8 points, five rebounds) is arguably the best on-ball defender in the nation and will hound Baba Miller and others all day long.

He's the only player in the nation with a 5.5%-plus steal rate and 10.5%-plus block rate. He and the whole Cougar crew will throw plenty of wrenches into UC's offense, which cannot slip back into the turnover troubles it has had in hard games this year (68 turnovers in five games against top 115 NET opponents).

Houston's pit bulls force 15.6 per game (30th-best nationally) and only give up 9.2 (seventh-best). Cincinnati has to keep good care of the ball and keep showing the ball movement, leading to open looks that started percolating against Lipscomb. UC is 49th in assists per game this season (17.5) and seventh in assist rate (66.3%).

Sticky possessions are a death sentence against Houston. UC has to ping the ball early in the shot clock and keep trying to keep the pace up as best they can against another Cougar outfit that wants to grind things to a halt (UC is 75th in adjusted tempo, Houston is 348th). Bring the physicality to Houston through increased pace, and UC just may be able to pull off what only Tennessee has done this season.

The Volunteers beat Houston with sound rebounding, a 47.1% FG mark, and 23 made free throws on 29 tries. Getting that deep Houston rotation into foul trouble is imperative to throwing off their rotations and getting things muddied up.

Unfortunately, UC's been a horrendous free-throw shooting team nearly every season this century, 2025-26 included. The Bearcats are shooting 63.8% from the line (350th). Miller has to be a force around the rim, getting fouls and rebounds, plus posting at least 15 points.

His 11 points, 21 rebounds, and seven assists in the 89-62 win over Lipscomb made Miller just the 16th player in all of college basketball – and third from a power conference school – to go for at least 10 points, 20 rebounds, and seven assists in a game dating back to the 1996-97 season.

Miller has to start producing like this against top opponents like Houston. He's only combined for 44 points total in Cincinnati's five Xavier/Dayton/Clemson/Georgia/Louisville games this season. It's asinine to think Cincinnati will roll to an easy win here with no crunchtime moments to speak of.

They need Miller or someone else to be that go-to scorer in the heart-pounding moments late in Big 12 games. We'll see if that pops up on Saturday afternoon; if not, UC will slip even further into this black hole of a season.

Catch all of the action on FOX at 2 p.m. ET.

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