The Goalposts Won't Stop Moving On Cincinnati's Quest For The CFP
Cincinnati Bearcats fans patiently waited 10 weeks to see where their squad stood in the eyes of the College Football Playoff committee, and they got a definitive answer on Tuesday night.
Definitive is a great way to describe all of the build-up that left Cincinnati tied with the 2015 Baylor Bears for the lowest CFP ranking ever handed to the No. 2 ranked team in the AP Top 25.
Of the 63 AP voters to turn in their ballot this past weekend, one had Oregon and Ohio State above Cincinnati. A program that has lost one game since Dec. 2019, can't buy an ounce of respect from the most powerful group of people in college football. Even the old BCS computer system ranked UC second in the AP and Coaches Polls.
"They can't hang with the big boys," is a favorite trope for opposing fans and people around college football. It just doesn't apply to this team and this coach. The Bearcats are 2-1 against Power 5 opponents over the past two years. Its only loss came on a game-winning field goal from the current top-ranked team (Georgia) in the nation this past January.
That was a game where Bearcats did everything but lift the trophy after the final whistle. They won the middle eight minutes of the game 14-3, controlled time of possession, and were ultimately undone by 11 penalties.
Flash forward to 2021 and this team has left no doubt who the better program is against Indiana and Notre Dame—winning by a combined 62-37 margin.
CFP Chairman Gary Barta told reporters the committee respected the win at Notre Dame and then proceeded to discredit UC by knocking a part of its schedule that the school can't control.
"Yeah, really can’t speak to the polls and how that worked out," Barta said to reporters on Tuesday night. "But I can tell you that Cincinnati has tremendous respect from the committee. They’re 8-0. The win at Notre Dame, probably everybody on this call saw that game. It was a heck of a performance. It was a great win.
"But after that win, look at who else they’ve beaten. Look at who else they’ve played. Then most recently, watching them against—the last two weeks against a 2-6 Navy team, and understanding preparing for the option in that kind of game can be a challenge, but then the next week, just this past weekend against a 1-7 Tulane team, Tulane was able to run the ball effectively against them. They were starting a freshman quarterback."
Yes, because the year of the opposing quarterback really matters?
The bottom line is no Group of 5 team has ever been as high in the rankings as the Bearcats—and barring chaos this year—it's unlikely anyone ever gets closer.
The biggest knock on Cincinnati's case as a top-four team is its 100th ranked strength of schedule. That mark will likely keep falling after UC was the only ranked AAC squad as Minnesota and Fresno State made it in over SMU and Houston.
Yet, as I mentioned, this team has a plus-22 point differential against three Power 5 opponents over the past 18 months. Two of which; were played against the 9th-ranked team at the time. Saying they can't be worthy because they haven't proven able to beat tough opponents is blatantly false.
Going through the rest of the resúme, Cincinnati is a definitive top-4 team. Notre Dame is the second-best win in the sport this season after Oregon's win over OSU. They own the nation's third-best points per game differential (25.6 PPG) and third-best turnover differential (+13). They are also 5-3 against the spread this season, tied for 8th in the country.
The committee and the Power 5 decision-makers, definitively don't respect the Bearcats, and at this point, the only reason to keep moving the goalposts is for money.
The CFP is not run by the NCAA, but by the Power 5 who has consistently dangled the carrot in front of the little guy. Every year the criteria changes for the best team in the Group of 5, and every year that school gets shut out.
Former CFP director Bill Hancock said a lot of things to prop up the Group of 5's chances during his time on the committee; none of that criteria is being applied to Cincinnati. Ranking Alabama, OSU, and Oregon above Cincinnati at this point is a headscratcher.
Alabama doesn't have to schedule difficult non-conference teams because the committee (justifiably) puts SEC strength of schedule above all else. The Crimson Tides' best (and only CFP) win to this point is against No. 16 Ole Miss. Nick Saban's team hasn't proven anything in 2021, and the loss to No. 14 Texas A&M should've been enough to at least make them sweat missing the top-four.
Oregon lost to a Stanford team currently sitting at 3-5 and has barely scratched out wins against middling opponents like UCLA and Cal, who are a combined 8-9 this season.
One loss doesn't matter if you are in a conference that helped form the CFP.
Finally, there is Ohio State. They've been fantastic since Week 3 of the season, outscoring its opponents 305-88. Yet, they lost at home for the first time since 2017. Once again, does every powerhouse just get a free loss to start the season?
Those are the questions Bearcat fans are asking, and with marquee games remaining for every team above them, Cincinnati looks to be capped out at No. 6 unless November chaos ensues. If only Indiana head coach Tom Allen bottled up that 2020 magic for this Hoosier season—UC might currently be a top-four team
The Bearcats are scheduling up, beating the big boys, covering Vegas lines, and still can't get taken seriously. A Big-12 logo next to its name will change that.
Until then, welcome to the College Football Invitational...Sorry...Playoff.
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