Cincinnati Bearcats Football Keys To The Game: Oklahoma State Cowboys

CINCINNATI — It's time to hit the road again for the 24th-ranked Bearcats Football team in a projected lopsided matchup against the Oklahoma State Cowboys.

Cincinnati holds its largest favored betting spread in a conference game under Scott Satterfield entering the contest. UC is a 21.5-point consensus betting favorite with a point total sitting at 58.5. ESPN's Matchup Predictor has Cincinnati winning 91.2% of the time.

The Bearcats enter the game ranked 42nd in ESPN's Football Power Index, while OSU sits at 117th.

“We have a better team than we did when we struggled when we went there last time," UC head coach Scott Satterfield said this week. "We've been able to build out our team the way we like, tough, gritty, hard-nosed players that play fast, that play physical. You feel a lot better about going to Stillwater this year than you did two years ago, with what we have on that plane that we're going to be taking over there. We have a lot of belief in the locker room, too. I think that's huge.

"They believe they'll go out and play well. They believe they’ll go out and get the win. Believing is hard to get, but you get that through hard work, through adversity, all the things that we've gone through the last two years. We love this team and our guys, and we've been saying this since media days. It's a different team with a different mindset.”

Cincinnati is 1-3 all-time against the Cowboys.

Offensive Key To The Game: Keep Executing Early

It would take multiple major injuries to the Bearcats' offense and defense for this game to be very close. Oklahoma State is arguably the worst power conference team in the nation, with an interim head coach and a converted wide receiver starting at quarterback.

On defense, they are downright horrific in basically every aspect. The Cowboys have hemorrhaged early-down efficiency (115th in early down EPA allowed) and now face the nation's fifth-best offense on early downs.

If Brendan Sorsby keeps taking care of the football (1.6% turnover-worth play rate, 15th-best nationally among all QBs with 100 dropbacks), then I just don't see how UC gets held under 35 points in this game. I could type out all the brutal matchups for the OSU defense, but it's more striking to see the visual from CFBGraphs.com.

CFB Graphs UC Offense v. OSU Defense | CFB Graphs

Given that chasm in passing EPA production, Sorsby is primed to have one of his biggest games of the season and bounce back from the uneven outing against UCF.

“The biggest thing is confidence," Sorsby said this week. "Whenever you're out there, if you don't believe in yourself to be able to go make a play, more than likely, you're probably not going to make it. Especially from the wide opposition, you have to be confident, which our guys are. Our guys want the ball, and they want to be the ones to make the play in the big situation. It's just my job to go out there and make sure they have a chance to make the play.”

OSU has the 98th-ranked defense by average success rate, meaning UC should have its best chance all season to sustain longer drives, but in the end, the defense is used to facing heavy snaps at this point. The goal is to score as many points as possible, whether it's a 10-play drive or two.

Cincinnati has the lowest time of possession in the country (24 minutes per game), but is second in yards per play (7.82), and 29th in scoring (36 points per game).

“I don't really know if we're ever looking for a long drive," Sorsby said this week. "I think we're just trying to score, whether that's a one-play drive or a 15-play drive. We just want to score a touchdown. I know the defense feels the same way. They don't care if we're out there for one play and we score, or if we're out there for 15 plays, it doesn't matter. They just want us to put points on the board. We want to put points on the board. If we're doing that, everybody will be good with however many plays that is.”

The bar for offensive success on Saturday is 35-45 points.

Defensive Key To The Game: Limit Rushing Attack

The only thing OSU has found any sunlight with this season has been some minor success here and there with the run game. Even then, minor success is being generous. They rank 125th in EPA/carry, but hey, that's 11 spots better than their FBS-last-place passing attack (136th in EPA/dropback).

With Sam Jackson V at quarterback, UC may be able to capture its first interception of the season. He is a horrendous 14-27 for 161 yards with a touchdown and one interception this season. The most amazing part of this OSU cliff dive is their turnover numbers. OSU is 1-5 and has only turned the ball over five times (21st nationally). That means they are executing at an extremely low level, down-to-down (34.9% offensive success rate, 132nd nationally).

Jackson will offer some rushing ability to complement lead back Rodney Fields Jr. (4.8 yards per carry on 54 totes), but unless Fields channels Barry Sanders or Ollie Gordon II, the impact of his legs won't come close to mattering. This could be the best OSU home crowd to show up the rest of the season in a Homecoming atmosphere, but the Bearcats are ready.

“This is our maturity; we know we’re one win away from being bowl eligible, but just having that maturity," Dontay Corleone said this week. "We know Oklahoma State is going through it with the coaches getting fired. We saw on film on Sunday that they put in great effort all the way to the fourth quarter. It's going to be Homecoming for them, so it will probably be a sold-out crowd. I know it is going to be loud, so we can't take them lightly.”

Cincinnati will get bowl-eligible before Halloween as the bigger goals come into focus more and more.

Prediction: 38-10 Bearcats

Season Prediction Record: 5-1

All advanced stats courtesy of CFB Graphs.

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