Game Preview: Bearcats Travel to Tampa for Bout With South Florida

Cincinnati is coming off of a 28-20 victory over Tulsa.

Author:
Russ Heltman
Nov 11, 2021 5:30 PM EST

The Cincinnati Bearcats travel to Tampa, Fla., to take on the South Florida Bulls this week in a Friday night matchup kicking off at 6 p.m. ET from Raymond James Stadium.

Cincinnati has a chance to start a season 10-0 for the second time in school history.

The Bearcats and Bulls have met 18 times, with Cincinnati on top 11-7 via the strength of three straight wins over South Florida. UC is a 23.5-point favorite on Friday night, with a total set at 57.5 points in their matchup against 2-7 South Florida.

The storyline to watch in this game is the health of Tampa-native Jerome Ford. The Bearcats leading rusher has tallied 888 rushing yards and the third-most total touchdowns in the country the season (16 TDs) but went down with an ankle injury early in the 28-20 victory over Tulsa.

Bearcats head coach Luke Fickell did not seem very worried about Ford's status at his weekly press conference on Tuesday.

“I don’t know. Today is a big day for practice," Fickell said. "I think I’ve told this to the guys on Sunday; every team has injuries, especially in week 10 and 11. Every team does. Every team has guys that are dinged up. Every team has guys that might not practice a ton during a week in week 11. Week 1, 2, 3, and 4, that really worries you."

Having ford would be a boon for blowout chances, but the offense shouldn't have much trouble getting the ground game going if backups Charles McClelland, Ryan Montgomery, or Ethan Wright are lined up with Desmond Ridder.

The Bulls' run defense is one of the worst in the country. Out of 130 FBS teams, they rank 119th in rushing yards per game allowed (223.8 YPG) and 123rd in yards per carry allowed (5.9 YPC). The southern-Florida heat has not been their friend either; they are giving up 235 RYPG at home—sixth-worst in the country.

“I’m hoping he [Ford] plays, you know," Ridder said at his weekly press conference. "As much as everyone else does because he’s a great running back, he provides a lot for us, for the team, but like I said Saturday, you know, I trust in every single one of those guys that are behind him. They’ve put in just the same amount of time working that he has to be out there on the field and show what they can do, so I’m excited to see how they step up if he’s not able to play, and see what they can do with their opportunity.”

The coverage unit isn't much better for a South Florida defense ranked 116th in Bill Connelly's defensive SP+ rankings. Ridder can have a nice booster performance against a Bulls team allowing a whopping 9.2 yards per pass attempt—ranking 119th in the country.

Slice it diagonally, horizontally, vertically, doesn't matter. The Bulls' defense is one of the biggest liabilities in the country and isn't trending upwards after allowing 646 yards in their 54-42 loss to Houston last weekend.

Unfortunately for worried Bearcats fans, Cincinnati's run defense has looked a lot like South Florida's lately. The Bearcats allowed 297 yards on the ground against Tulsa, including 100-plus yards to both Shamari Brooks (132 yards) and Anthony Watkins (105 yards.

That mark wasn't a shock to people watching UC defend ground attacks over the past few weeks. According to Team Rankings, The Bearcats have allowed the 19th-most rushing yards in the country over their last three games (225.3 YPG allowed).

"On both sides of the ball," Fickell said about the rushing defense against Tulsa. "We allowed them to get some of those runs that felt like they were continuing to keep the momentum. Then, we allowed them to continue to do that by, maybe not in some ways, putting them away. You get up 16 points in the start of the second half, and you don’t find a way to put someone away. As you look back at it, it was the right move for them. In our minds, sometimes we’re looking at it like ‘they’re gonna throw it, they’re gonna throw it, they’re gonna throw it,’ and they didn’t."

In what's becoming a season-long theme, the only area where the Bulls hold an advantage on UC is special teams. South Florida ranks 33rd in special teams SP+ (0.2) while Cincinnati sits at 84th (-0.1).

The Bearcats are the only team in the SP+ Top-10 ranked outside the Top-35 in special teams SP+. That fact hasn't cost them yet, but they did feel the effect a strong opposing kicker can have when Tulsa's Zack Long nailed two field goals to help Tulsa keep things close in the first half last week.

South Florida has a Lou Groza Award candidate of their own in Spencer Shrader, who is 9-of-9 on FG attempts this season, including a long of 52 yards.

The Bulls also used the forgotten phase to score two kick return touchdowns in the first half last week. Another lightning strike on that front could have UC in a dogfight.

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