Will Lady Luck Come Calling For Cincinnati Football?

UC football has had some some very unfortunate losses this season compared to underlying statistics.

Author:
Russ Heltman
Sep 30, 2023 11:57 AM EDT

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CINCINNATI — The UC football team is doing plenty of things right as it enters the bye week 2-3. Unfortunately, it's not been enough to avoid the first three-game losing streak since 2017.

Luck and crucial moment execution is wiping away all the good attributes from the win column. Cincinnati has one of the of top-20 offenses nationally by total yards per game (490 YPG), averages 20 more plays than the opponent, is top 10 nationally in time of possession, and top 45 in yards per play.

The defense has taken a step back this season but is still one of the better units in the country and is allowing a palatable 24 points per game. Yet the record sits under .500 thanks to brutal luck and lacking player execution.

Will Cincinnati's luck turn after the bye? Team Rankings has them slated 121st nationally in luck entering this weekend and that's sure to fall closer to rock bottom after this weekend's slate.

UC's three opponents they've lost to are having serendipitous runs to start the 2023 campaign: BYU (13th in luck), Miami (OH) (15th in luck), and Oklahoma (47th in luck). A perfect example of these brutally timed blows to Cincinnati came on BYU's 59-yard TD pass from Kedon Slovis to Chase Roberts.

Slovis admitted it was a completely lucky play, playing a HUGE role in a one-score game. Just like the pick-six and Braden Smith's muffed punt.

"I would say I got really lucky and Chase made a heck of a play," Slovis said postgame. "It was not supposed to work out that way, but it did and shout-out to Chase for making it work."

Plays like that combined with brutal drops on late downs, and the blown blocking assignment on the final kick against Miami (OH) have driven UC into a three-game hole.

The systems are working relatively well given UC's whirlwind offseason and completely overhauled offense. Luck just isn't rewarding Cincinnati in a season where the margins are much thinner and the competition is tougher.

UC now goes through a bye week before welcoming Iowa State to Nippert Stadium on Oct. 14

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