ESPN FPI Believes Miracles Need to Happen for Clemson Tigers' Postseason Chances

The Clemson Tigers began 2025 as the No. 4 team in the country, and by their fourth game of the season, a lot is expected to be off the table following a 1-3 start.

According to ESPN’s College Football Power Index, or FPI, Clemson is ranked 44th in the power index, being expected to win between 5.7 and 6.3 games this season following the worst start in head coach Dabo Swinney’s tenure.

The Tigers’ only way of making the College Football Playoff, hypothetically, is going through and winning the ACC. Clemson has a 0.3% chance to win the ACC Championship this season, meaning that chaos will need to ensue in the conference and the Tigers will need to win out.

Clemson only has a 0.8% chance to win its last eight games all in a row, making the metric a low 0.2% chance to make the 12-team postseason next year.

The FPI gives the team no chance to either make the national championship or win it all, and even Swinney knows that expectations will need to change midseason while speaking to the media on Monday.

Despite the hopes of winning his third national championship with the team are crushed, Swinney says that there’s still belief in winning games the rest of the season.

“We’re not going to win the national championship this year,” he said. “We’ve won three in 130 years, but that doesn’t mean we can’t win the season. Doesn’t mean we can’t finish well. and doesn’t mean we can’t enjoy the journey, because that’s what this is.”

What remains on the table is a bowl game for the Tigers, who need five more wins this season to be able to clinch a game at the end of the season to cap of 2025. ESPN FPI has Clemson with a 57.2% chance to surpass six wins this season, meaning there remains hope for more games after the regular season ends.

This means that Clemson will look to avoid its first bowl game since the 2004 season, which was the last season that saw the team with a 1-3 start in its first four games. The Tigers have the fourth-longest active streak in the country, only behind Georgia (28), Oklahoma (26) and Alabama (21).

Swinney and the Tigers enter a bye week this week, looking to reconnect and prepare for a shorter eight-game season to flip the year around. Clemson will play North Carolina after the bye next weekend before traveling to another away game against Boston College.

Games like SMU, Duke and Louisville will be pivotal swing games that will help clear up the picture of a potential Clemson bowl game. Perhaps the game against South Carolina on Nov. 29 could serve as a “win-and-in” scenario for the Tigers if the season remains rocky.

The Tigers need five wins from their final eight games to make the season, giving the team a chance to turn their season around with nothing else remaining on the table besides a bowl game streak. Should Clemson turn it around, it could bring momentum going into 2026. However, if Swinney and his squad are unable to respond, significant changes could be coming in the offseason.