Odds and Ends: Clemson Faces Tough Challenge when Boston College Visits

A look at how No. 25 Clemson can cover a 14.5-point spread over visiting Boston College as well as a best bet for the Tigers in Week 4.

There's an old saying that good teams win games, but great teams cover the spread. 

Well, No. 25 Clemson isn't doing much of either right now, which makes Saturday's game against Boston College both sobering and difficult to decipher. 

The 2-2 Tigers, who haven't covered a spread all season, are a 14.5-point favorite over the visiting Eagles in their 7:30 p.m. showdown. The line is actually down from 15.5 earlier in the week, but it also represents something that might be a little hard to wrap your head around. 

Based on the implied odds of being a -752 favorite on the moneyline, Clemson supposedly has an 88.3 percent chance of winning the game outright. Following a loss at NC State last week, there might not be many folks in the Tigers' fan base who are THAT confident in a victory Saturday night. 

The Tiger offense has struggled all season, scoring just 38 points combined against FBS opponents. The 4-0 Eagles are averaging 41.3 points per game, although they've faced just one Power-5 program in 2021. 

Still, it makes sense on the surface to take the points and back the visiting team, which actually led a much better Clemson team at halftime last year at Memorial Stadium before quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei led the Tigers to a 28-23 come-from-behind victory. 

BC is going to come into Saturday's contest confident and looking to take down a wounded Clemson, but if you wanted to take the favorite, how can you be convinced they'll cover the spread?

Well, it'll take some luck, first off. The regular stats and advanced analytics paint a poor picture of Clemson right now offensively, but the defense is still dominant. The Tigers will have to take away a BC run game that's averaging over 5 yards per carry and has scored 12 touchdowns via the ground game. 

Clemson defensive coordinator Brent Venables has made a living taking away opponents' strengths and forcing them to rely on their weaknesses. With BC quarterback Phil Jurkovec out with a hand injury, backup Dennis Grosel has not proven he can be a consistent and efficient passer to the point where the Tigers have to over respect him. 

Even without defensive tackles Bryan Bresee and Tyler Davis Clemson should keep points at a premium, but the Tigers' offense will need to help keep the defense from wearing down by doing its part. Efficiency has been the issue; the Tigers rank dead last in the ACC with 69 first downs, 11 fewer than the next team.

Regardless of the side, this is a hold your breath kind of game. 

Betting picks

Spread: Boston College

Total: Under

Best bet (2-2): We got to the window last week with an easy first-half under. and we could certainly go back to that again this week. But the full-game total feels just as good. With the over/under set at 46.5 points, take the under. As much as this looks like too many points for the favorite, oddsmakers might see something nobody else does, and it's not worth fading Clemson at home when there's a better option on the board.

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