Odds and Ends: Is It Time to Trust Clemson as a Big Road Favorite?

Clemson isn't the super trustworthy big-spread favorite it once was, but are the No. 5 Tigers winning some of that trust back with their fast start to the 2022 season?

This week's game could really test that. Boston College, which hosts the Tigers at 7:30 p.m. at Alumni Stadium on Saturday, hasn't had much success this season. Clemson is coming off back-to-back wins over currently top-15 teams. Maybe there's going to be real optimism this time that this team can cover on the road.

The 5-0 Tigers are currently a 20.5-point favorite over the 2-3 Eagles, according to FanDuel Sportsbook, with a game total of 48.5 points.

Clemson has covered the spread just seven times in the last 18 games. The Tigers have only cashed for backers once as a favorite of at least 20 points in the last two seasons, and that was Week 1 against Georgia Tech at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

They beat the Yellow Jackets 41-10 in their first cover of the season. They got another one last week as a 6.5-point favorite at home against NC State.

Boston College, meanwhile, is just 1-4 against the spread this season. The Eagles got their lone cover last week in a 34-33 outright win as a 13.5-point underdog against Louisville. Their first ACC win was a welcomed sight for head coach Jeff Hafley, who's only covered three of their last 10 games, after a 44-14 loss the week before to FSU.

Much of BC's struggles this year have come on the offensive side of the ball. Its offense is averaging 317.4 yards per game, which ranks 111th nationally. Their 128th rushing behind an offensive line that lost two starters in the preseason and has not been able to take full advantage of future pros Phil Jurkovec at QB and Zay Flowers at WR.

After a couple of rough games for the secondary, Clemson's defense rebounded in a big way against NC State, producing three sacks and holding the Wolfpack to 1.6 yards per carry. It's going to be a tough day for BC when it comes to moving the ball unless that QB-WR combo can constantly hit.

If BC stays one-dimensional and the Tiger defense shuts it down, Clemson's offense should be able to do more than enough to cover three touchdowns. The DJ Uiagalelei-led squad is averaging 41 points per game and goes against an Eagle defense allowing 28.6 points per contest. BC ranks 75th in defensive rushing success rate so look for the Tigers to pound the ball with Uiagalelei and Will Shipley.

As for head-to-head trends, the road team is 6-1 against the spread in the last seven meetings, but BC is 6-4 in the last 10 meetings ATS.

Betting picks

Spread: Clemson

Total: Under

Best bet (1-4): It's not been a good prognostication start to the season for All Clemson. We took a flier last week on Shipley scoring two touchdowns and he ended up getting none at Uiagalelei accounted for all of the Tigers' scores in the end zone. This is the perfect bounce-back week. Despite Clemson's struggles covering big numbers, this one feels a little light. Maybe it's because BC is coming off a win, and therefore a tad overvalued, or maybe oddsmakers could see a letdown coming for the Tigers after last week's huge victory. But it appears to have some value as this line should probably be closer to 24. Let's ride Clemson -20.5 and get back on the winning side.

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