What the Analytics Say About Clemson's Pinstripe Bowl Matchup vs. Penn State

This weekend, the Clemson Tigers will play at Yankee Stadium in the Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl, facing the Penn State Nittany Lions at noon. Both teams, which began in the top four of the Preseason AP Top 25 Poll, will look to finish their underwhelming seasons strong.

Despite opening as an underdog, Clemson is now a 3-point favorite to win, according to DraftKings Sportsbook.

Here is what the advanced analytics say about this year’s Pinstripe Bowl.

BCFToys (FEI)

BCFToys gives the edge to the Nittany Lions, giving them an impressive 71.7% chance to defeat Clemson in the Bronx on Saturday afternoon. The model has Penn State winning by an estimated score of 28.9-20.5.

Head coach Dabo Swinney and his team enter their final game of the season as the 37th team in the nation, with a defensive ranking of 35th. The Clemson offense, led by senior quarterback Cade Klubnik in his final game with the team, is at 46th.

According to the ratings, Clemson will finish the season against its best opponent, playing the No. 20 team in the rankings. The Tigers’ next-best opponent, South Carolina, is currently at the No. 26 spot. Penn State holds the 24th-best offensive efficiency in the country, holding a defensive efficiency that is at the No. 43 spot.

An important stat is how the Nittany Lions have handled special teams, being the second-best special teams unit in terms of efficiency in the entire nation. Clemson, on the other hand, is 65th. If Penn State pulls out the win, don’t be surprised if its special teams played an important role.

SP+

Bill Connelly’s invented model, the SP+, gives the Nittany Lions the advantage as well, winning by an estimated score of 29-23, similar to BCFToys. Connelly gives Penn State a 64% chance to win the Pinstripe Bowl this weekend.

Similarly, Clemson will be facing its best opponent of the season, according to the analytics. Penn State is ranked at No. 17 in the SP+ rankings, using an 18th-best offense and seventh-best special teams to be in the ranking that it is in.

Clemson’s next best opponent thus far would be SMU, at 24th.

The Tigers are at No. 32, continuing to climb up the ranks throughout their four-game win streak to close out the regular season. The team will look to use a 24th-best defense to shut down the Penn State offense, holding the No. 57-ranked offense and 34th-ranked special teams.

The FPI rankings are more bullish against Clemson, only having a 34.7% chance to win the game in New York City.

Penn State remains ahead of the Tigers at No. 17 in the rankings, while Clemson is in the No. 30 spot. The Tigers are the fourth-best ACC team in the Football Power Index, behind Miami, SMU and Louisville, respectively.

CFP Graphs

CFP Graphs gives Swinney the best chance of winning the game on Saturday, but still gives the edge to the Nittany Lions. Clemson has a 48.6% chance to defeat Penn State in the Pinstripe Bowl, losing by an estimated score of 24.6-23.8.

The units to watch are going to be how the Penn State offense plays the Clemson defense. Clemson has done a great job down the stretch of getting off the field, being eighth in the country in a 31% third and fourth down success rate, compared to Penn State’s 44.8% ability on offense.

In terms of how much Tom Allen’s unit prevents quality drives, the Tigers only allow 2.69 points per quality drive, 11th in the country, while Penn State is 17th in the nation with 4.2 points per quality drive. The Nittany Lions have a 51.5% quality drive ratio, meaning that Allen will be playing his former team with some important moments that will make or break if Clemson leaves New York City with a win.

Offensively, Clemson has struggled on third and fourth down, only converting 38.7% of its chances, 95th in the country. Besides that, a lot of the Tigers’ offensive stats are mediocre, according to the model.

Kickoff is set for noon from Yankee Stadium, and the game will be broadcast on ABC.