What the Analytics Say about Clemson vs. North Carolina

On Saturday afternoon, the Clemson Tigers will travel to Chapel Hill, North Carolina to face the North Carolina Tar Heels. Clemson is searching for its first win in ACC play still, while the Tar Heels begin their ACC campaign at home against the reigning conference champion.

Clemson is currently a 14.5 point favorite, according to odds makers.

Here is what the advanced analytics are saying about Clemson’s chances to leave Kenan Stadium with a win on Saturday.

BCFToys (FEI)

BCFToys gives Clemson a 71.9% chance to beat North Carolina this weekend, with an estimated projection score of 28-19. The ratings rank the Tigers as the No. 43 team in the country, with an opponent-adjusted defensive efficiency ranking at No. 26 and an offensive efficiency rating at No. 56.

Clemson’s opponent, North Carolina, has an opponent-adjusted offensive efficiency rating at No. 92 and a defensive efficiency rating at No. 84, giving the Tigers a significant advantage on both sides of the ball. The team is ranked No. 80 in the country.

The Tar Heels are given the advantage at special teams, however. The home team has a special team efficiency that is ranked No. 41 in the country while the Tigers hold a rank at No. 108, per FEI.

SP+

ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s invented metric still believes that Clemson will leave Chapel Hill with a win, but the margin may be slightly less than what the spread may show.

SP+ gives Clemson about a 71% chance to defeat North Carolina on Saturday by an estimated score of about 7.7 points. According to the model, the Tigers are ranked 57th in the SP+ with a nationally ranked offense and defense at 66th and 45th, respectively.

On the flip side, the model wasn’t generous to the Tar Heels either. North Carolina is ranked 86th nationally with a 97th-ranked offense and 78th-ranked defense.

The FPI projections are a little more generous to the Tigers, giving them about a 77.5% chance to win on Saturday afternoon by a margin of about 8.3 points. In the Football Power Index, Clemson is ranked No. 45 nationally, while the Tar Heels are ranked No. 88.

Clemson has the most advantage from the FPI rankings, but most believe that the team will win by at least a touchdown to pick up its first ACC victory.

CFB Graphs

The CFB Graphs is the most bullish model for Clemson, believing that the Tigers will beat North Carolina by 10.3 points by a predicted score of about 25-15. The model gives Clemson a 68.2% chance of winning the game.

Both teams have had a slow start to the season, and CFP Graphs’ numbers reflect that. The numbers still favor Clemson, who have a defensive net points per drive of 1.43, which is 39th in the country, compared to North Carolina’s 1.17 and 1.93 on offense and defense, respectively, that both fall past 80th in the country in both.

Clemson has a 42.9% quality drive ratio to North Carolina’s 34.6% ratio, which both are outside the top 100 in doing so. However, with both teams coming off of the bye this week, change is needed for both sides, looking to increase the number of positive drives.

Both teams have struggled early, but Clemson has the edge with many of the advanced stats. However, both teams have not had the start they desired, looking to turn it around with their first ACC win of the season.