Why ESPN is Correct on Clemson Being Capable of a CFP Team

Two years ago, Clemson football ended its season with a College Football Playoff appearance, its first since 2020.

Since then, head coach Dabo Swinney has been counted out of a potential return to the postseason after a 7-6 season in 2025, his worst finish in over 15 years. However, ESPN’s Heather Dinich believes the opposite, saying that Clemson can get back to the 12-team tournament.

Dinich gives 31 teams the capability to be named during that Sunday in December, when the committee makes their decision. Clemson was ranked 29th when talking about the teams, going from long-shots to surefires to make the postseason.

She also disagrees with ESPN’s analytics, which have the Tigers with a 21.1% chance to make the Playoff and a 0.7% chance to win the national championship.

“Clemson will be better, but how much depends in large part on its new quarterback,” Dinich said, “and even coach Dabo Swinney isn't sure who that is right now.”

She also says that the Tigers will need to get to the ACC Championship game to even receive a consideration for one of the 12 spots. With a schedule that features home games against Miami, Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech, it’s favorable for some of the best opponents. Meanwhile, away games feature a Friday night game at Cal and Duke, among others.

Similar to popular belief, the game against LSU will dictate where Clemson falls for the remainder of the season. Dinich argues that “the unforgiving environment” that Tiger Stadium provides will have Clemson playing two different games: one against the crowd and one against LSU. Especially with a new team, that’s understandable for why the Tigers are lower on this list compared to other seasons.

But one thing will help the ACC’s metrics in 2026, and Clemson will play a vital role in it with playing multiple games as such: playing the SEC and Big 10.

The Tigers face LSU and South Carolina, two SEC opponents. With how much weight that conference has when it comes to that selection day, if Clemson beats both of them, which is unlikely but possible, that brings an unfathomable amount of weight back into the picture, especially if it makes the ACC Championship game.

Swinney can’t lose to the average joes of the conference, though.

Clemson has slipped up in the past. A loss to Duke in 2023, Louisville at home in 2024 and Syracuse and Duke in 2025 all plummeted the Tigers. Dinich agrees, saying that “the committee will want to see Clemson assert itself against unranked and average opponents.

Of course, that’s what the playoff teams do: dominate the inferior opponents.

Clemson has an uphill battle to climb with a lot of these opponents, but if it can pull out the close wins that it has lacked, as well as defeating out of conference opponents, the Tigers will be a lot closer to the College Football Playoff than they have in previous seasons.

You have to showcase that on the field, though.

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