What the Advanced Analytics Say About Colorado vs. Arizona State

The Colorado Buffaloes have watched their analytical numbers slightly increase ahead of facing the Arizona State Sun Devils.

Oct 31, 2026; Boulder, Colorado, USA; Colorado Buffaloes head coach Deion Sanders on the sideline during the first half against the Kansas State Wildcats at Folsom Field. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Coach Kenny Dillingham believes his Arizona State Sun Devils are facing NFL talent on the Colorado Buffaloes' side.

Even at 3-5 overall in Boulder, an opposing coach appears to be taking this Colorado team seriously. But do the analytics for coach Deion Sanders and the Buffaloes paint a new picture of seriousness for Colorado after beating Kansas State?

The latest Football Power Index (FPI) rankings from ESPN show some different numbers ahead of the Nov. 7 showdown.

Colorado Sees Changes in Football Power Index Ahead of Arizona State

Oct 31, 2026; Boulder, Colorado, USA; Colorado Buffaloes tight end Charlie Williams (87) catches a touchdown to win the game in overtime against the Kansas State Wildcats at Folsom Field. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

There's a mix of good and bad news here for Colorado, beginning with the latter. The Buffaloes have a small 1.2 percent chance of winning out and finishing 7-5 the rest of the way, even after snapping their five-game losing streak on Halloween.

Yet the good news is that Colorado's chances of winning six games have been boosted. Now the FPI hands this 2026 Buffaloes team an 11.1 percent chance of finishing out at 6-6.

Such a feat would hand Sanders only his second bowl-eligible season in Colorado. The path ahead could very well present the Buffaloes with that chance when looking at the rest of the schedule.

The Path Ahead for Colorado Following Kansas State Win

Oct 31, 2026; Boulder, Colorado, USA; Colorado Buffaloes quarterback Isaac Wilson (16) passes the ball in the second half against the Kansas State Wildcats at Folsom Field. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Colorado's emotional 27-24 overtime win over the Wildcats kept the Buffaloes mathematically alive for a bowl game.

The rest of the schedule layout could swing the advantage toward the Buffaloes here. Colorado spent its first eight games facing three ranked teams before Halloween: Northwestern (previously No. 20), Texas Tech (No. 15 in College Football Playoff rankings released on Nov. 3) and Utah (landed at No. 3 in the CFP). Also, Oklahoma State was ranked momentarily during the early portion of 2026, but non-ranked during its Oct. 24 showdown.

Oct 31, 2026; Boulder, Colorado, USA; Kansas State Wildcats cornerback Zashon Rich (25) tackles Colorado Buffaloes wide receiver Joseph Williams (8) in the first half at Folsom Field. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Now, only the No. 17 Houston Cougars (per the CFP rankings) is the final ranked hurdle for Colorado. And UH comes to Folsom Field on Nov. 13.

Meanwhile, the upcoming foe ASU is 4-4 overall but owns a 2-3 record in conference play. Cincinnati is also below .500 against Big 12 foes with a similar record, despite being 5-3 overall. Even UCF is another sitting at 2-3 in the Big 12 (4-4 overall). All the more reason why the FPI changed Colorado's chances of winning at least six games.

Where Colorado's Next Foe Stands in the Football Power Index

Oct 31, 2026; Provo, Utah, USA; Arizona State Sun Devils head coach Kenny Dillingham looks on against the Brigham Young Cougars during the second half at LaVell Edwards Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rob Gray-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

It turns out Colorado and Arizona State nearly fall into the same boat. The Buffaloes still own the Big 12's worst FPI ranking among Big 12 teams, plus they are 73rd overall. But ASU is next-to-last in the same ranking system.

The Sun Devils sit at 65th overall but 15th among the 16 teams in the conference. ASU isn't receiving much of a chance to win out either, owning a 1.4 percent chance. However, the Sun Devils enter their Tempe home stadium owning a 46.7 percent probability rate of hitting six victories. ASU just needs two more victories to seal a bowl bid.

Dillingham and ASU rose to prominence right away once the program moved to the Big 12, winning the conference in its first season of 2024. That also came in season two of the Dillingham era. Now he and Sanders are simply coaching teams to pursue a bowl bid, even if it means settling for six wins. And as it turns out, both the Buffaloes and Sun Devils aren't that much different from one another, per the FPI.

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