The 2020 season for the Colorado Buffaloes is bleak according to Bill Connelly, the founder of SP+ a college football sabermetric, and a writer for ESPN.
Connelly is celebrating his own Colorado Day and looking at the analytics for the CU football team.
Connelly points out that every time the CU football program seems to make progress ever since Gary Barnett left, it ends up going backward. Sustained success has been impossible to find in the last 17 years.
CU is on its third head coach in three years. But for a team that has not ranked in the top 40 in SP+ offensive efficiency since 2003, it has to be refreshing to bring in an offensive coach.
They have gotten off to hot starts offensively the last two seasons but it has sputtered later in the year. A couple of reasons for that is injuries and predictability. The offense hasn't been consistent for a long time.
The defense carried CU to a Pac-12 South title in 2016. It improved throughout the season last year. But they bring back most of their starters from last season including Nate Landman and Mustafa Johnson. This could be another season where the defense has to carry the team.
Connelly and the SP+ projections are not in favor of that happening. The projections have CU winning 3.2 games. They are only favorites in one game, Fresno State at home, and the win probability is only 57 percent.
They have eight likely losses (a win probability of less than 30 percent) and four tossups. No games are considered likely wins.
The most likely scenario according to SP+ is CU wins three games. The three games with the highest win probability are Fresno State (home), UCLA (home) and a tie between Colorado State (road) and Arizona (road).
IF there is a football season, there is a chance Colorado won't have any time to practice with their new head coach at the helm, giving CU a bigger disadvantage that cannot be quantifiable.
The 2020 season is very bleak for CU.
On a brighter note, Connelly looks at the history of CU. Some tremendous peaks and the lowest of the lows.
If history truly does repeat itself, it won't be long until CU is at the mountain top again.