Breaking Down the 2020 Season with ESPN FPI

There is no doubt the 2020 schedule is not favorable for first-year head coach Karl Dorrell and the Colorado Buffaloes.

The non-conference schedule includes a matchup with in-state rival Colorado State on the road and a game at one of the toughest places to play in the country.

The experts have Colorado winning somewhere around three games next season as they play the 7th toughest schedule in the nation.

ESPN recently came out with its football power index (FPI) predictions for all FBS schools.

What is FPI?

"FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 128; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI."

2020 CU Buffs season outlook based on FPI metrics

FPI rating: -1.3

FPI rank: 75th

Projected win/loss: 3.7 - 8.3

Chances of winning out: 0%

Chances of winning conference: 0%

Strength of schedule rank (FBS): 7th

Colorado State

CSU FPI rating: -4.4

CSU FPI rank: 91st

This will undoubtedly be one of the most difficult matchups with Colorado State in recent years. Not only are they playing in Fort Collins for the first time since 1996, the Rams also boast a very experienced roster. Warren Jackson and Patrick O'Brien will be looking for a win over CU for the first time in the careers.

FPI chances of a win: 51.7%

Fresno State

CSUF FPI rating: -6.9

CSUF FPI rank: 101st

Fresno State was a Mountain West powerhouse just a couple of years ago and this game would have been a big test for the Buffaloes. Jeff Tedford decided to step down after the 2019 season and Kalen DeBoer has taken the reigns in Fresno. DeBoer was the offensive coordinator for the Bulldogs in 2017 and 2018. He most recently called the plays at Indiana where his offense ranked 42nd in the country in his first year there. If CU can't win this game, they have much bigger problems.

FPI chances of a win: 74.8%

Texas A&M

TAMU FPI rating: 16.7

TAMU FPI rank: 15th

Texas A&M returns much of its production from the 2019 season. It is not out of the question for this to be a top ten team when the Buffs arrive in College Station. Texas A&M has now had two seasons under Jimbo Fisher and appears to be a program on the rise. Can CU pull off the unthinkable?

FPI chances of a win: 7%

Oregon

UO FPI rating: 21.3

UO FPI rank: 8th

After CU plays at one of the toughest places in the country, they have to play the heavy favorite to win the Pac-12. Oregon returns much of its production from the Pac-12 title team and Rose Bowl champion a year ago. The Buffs have their work cut out for them in this matchup. At least they will be back at home.

FPI chances of a win: 8.9%

Arizona

UofA FPI rating: 1.9

UofA FPI rank: 57th

Arizona will likely be the worst team in the Pac-12 next season and this game will likely decide last in the Pac-12 south. Arizona loses their two most explosive players on offense in JJ Taylor and Khalil Tate. They also lose three-year starting safety Scottie Young Jr. to the transfer portal. This is a winnable game for the Buffs despite playing on the road.

FPI chances of a win: 35.2%

UCLA

UCLA FPI rating: 3.4

UCLA FPI rank: 49

UCLA returns starting quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson as well as much of the production defensively. They do lose star running back Joshua Kelley. UCLA is a wildcard next year much like they were during the 2019 season. This is a winnable game, especially at home.

FPI chances of a win: 46.3%

Arizona State

ASU FPI rating: 3.7

ASU FPI ranking: 48th

Despite seeing some success in his first two seasons at the helm, Herm Edwards has yet to beat the Colorado Buffaloes. Jayden Daniels returns for his sophomore season and Arizona State will have back many of their playmakers on defense. They lose star running back Eno Benjamin, however. It has been six years since the Sun Devils beat CU in Boulder.

FPI chances of a win: 40.7%

Southern Cal

USC FPI rating: 17.9

USC FPI rank: 13

Another year and USC is again overrated according to most advanced metrics. Where talent goes to disappoint. Offensive coordinator Graham Harrell is one of the best young minds in football and he really had Kedon Slovis playing well last season. However, they've done nothing the past two seasons to equate to being ranked in the pre-season top 25. But they do have the name.

FPI chances of a win: 5.3%

Washington State

WSU FPI rating: 1.8

WSU FPI rank: 58th

The pirate has left the ship and there is a new sherrif in town, Nick Rolovich. Rolovich had a run-and-shoot offense while at Hawaii and the personnel at Washington State is set up for immediate success. They do have questions at quarterback but may have the best returning running back in the Pac-12 in Max Borghi. CU has had its struggles against WSU but this may be the season they get it done.

FPI chances of a win: 50.4%

Stanford

Stanford FPI rating: 8.9

Stanford FPI rank: 31

This is another team that is a little bit overrated. They had a record number of players enter the transfer portal including quarterback K.J. Costello. The incumbent quarterback, Davis Mills, was one of the top quarterbacks in the nation coming out of high school but left a lot to be desired when he played in relief of Costello this past season. Stanford is depleting and the analytics haven’t seen it yet.

FPI chances of a win: 16.2%

Washington

UW FPI rating: 9.8

UW FPI rank: 28

Washington has some big question marks at quarterback and has reportedly been involved in the J.T. Daniels sweepstakes. They have to replace most of their weapons on offense including running back Salvon Ahmed and tight end Hunter Bryant. But the defense is young and loaded and has a good chance of being elite again. The transition from Chris Petersen to Jimmy Lake should be smooth as silk.

FPI chances of a win: 14.6%

Utah

UU FPI rating: 11.2

UU FPI rank: 24

Utah has to replace its top two player on both offense and defense but behind that, most of its production returns. Huntley and Moss will not be easy to replace but they have loaded up their running back and quarterback rooms. Head coach Kyle Wittingham produces a nine or ten win team seemingly every season so who’s to say he can’t do it again?

FPI chances of a win: 23.7%