Florida State at Duke: Preview and Tale of the Tape

Duke returns home after a tough three-game road trip, traveling to new ACC rival Syracuse and longtime arch-rival UNC, sandwiched around a game at Boston College. The latter two games required late Duke rallies to pull out victories, including an improbable comeback in regulation and overtime against the Tar Heels.

Coach Mike Krzyzewski frequently talks about “energy cycles” with his team, and if ever there was a time for the Blue Devils to be on the low end of an energy cycle, it’s now, with so much emotion expended on the road trip and a short turnaround before facing a Seminoles team that is tied with Duke near the top of the standings.

Duke’s successful trip propelled the Blue Devils to 20-3, 10-2 in the ACC, good for second place. Duke has won five straight.

FSU has identical overall and conference records and has won three straight and 13 of 14. The Noles have won four of their last five on the road in the ACC.

Tale of the tape

KenPom rating: Duke 3, Florida State 19

Torvik: Duke 5, Florida State 25

Torvik prediction: Duke 79-70

NET ranking: Duke 6, Florida State 13

SOS: Duke 23, Florida State 56

Quad 1 record: Duke 3-1, Florida State 3-2

Tempo: Duke No. 41 nationally, Florida State No. 85

When Duke has the ball (Duke offense vs. Florida State defense per Torvik)

Efficiency: Duke 116.8 (No. 8 nationally), Florida State 92.3 (No. 21)

Effective shooting: Duke 53.6% (No. 29), Florida State 46.6% (No. 59)

Turnover percentage: Duke 18.1% (No. 106), Florida State 24.7% (No. 7)

Rebounding percentage: Duke 35.8% (No. 11), Florida State 30.7 (No. 285)

Free throw rate: Duke 34.7 (No. 114), Florida State 35.1 (No. 244)

Three-point shooting: Duke 34.9% (No. 90), Florida State 32.7% (No. 147)

Two-point shooting: Duke 54.2 (No. 23), Florida State 44.9% (No. 39)

Free throw shooting: Duke 69.7 (No. 212), Florida State 73.2 (No. 292)

Blocked shot percentage: Duke 8.5% (No. 139), Florida State 17.2 (No. 1)

When Florida State has the ball (Duke defense vs. Florida State offense)

Efficiency: Duke 90.9 (No. 14), Florida State 110.2 (No. 40)

Effective shooting: Duke 45.6% (No. 35), Florida State 52.6% (No. 52)

Turnover percentage: Duke 21.9% (No. 44), Florida State 19.1% (No. 178)

Rebounding percentage: Duke 28.0% (No. 169), Florida State 31.7% (No. 66)

Free throw rate: Duke 30.9 (No. 152), Florida State 29.1 (No. 264)

Three-point shooting: Duke 29.1% (No. 18), Florida State 36.5% (No. 35)

Two-point shooting: Duke 46.4% (No. 75), Florida State 51.4% (No. 91)

Free throw shooting: Duke 65.6 (No. 10), Florida State 77.7 (No. 11)

Blocked shot percentage: Duke 13.7% (No. 20), Florida State 6.9% (No. 25)

Florida State leaders:

Devin Vassell: 13.5 ppg, 5.3 rebounds

Trent Forrest: 11.3 ppg, 4.3 rebounds, 4.3 assists

M.J. Walker: 10.8 ppg

The key:

After a string of slow starts, Duke needs to build an early lead and get the home crowd behind it. The Blue Devils also need Matthew Hurt to shake off his midseason funk. Hurt’s playing time has shrunk in recent games, but Duke will need his outside shooting. Krzyzewski said (above video) that Hurt’s reduction in minutes is due to opponents “going small” which shouldn’t be a problem with the Seminoles.

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