Duke at Virginia: Preview and Tale of the Tape

Duke has lost two of three, both to unranked foes on the road, and the Blue Devils head to one of the worst destinations for a team looking to get back on the right track—Charlottesville.

The defending national champion Virginia Cavaliers play a grueling defense with a clock-consuming offense that goes against the fast pace and transition game Duke prefers. The Blue Devils will need patience, discipline and focus, three things that abandoned them in a 22-point loss to NC State and a double-overtime shocker in Winston-Salem.

Virginia had a shaky start to ACC play, but the Cavs seem to be in high gear as March approaches. UVA has won five straight, four straight at home and has held the last five opponents to 65 points or fewer.

At 20-7, 12-5, UVA will try to catch Duke (23-5, 13-4) in the ACC standings.

Tale of the tape

KenPom rating: Duke 5, Virginia 47

Torvik: Duke 5, Virginia 40

Torvik prediction: Duke 60-58

NET ranking: Duke 6, Virginia 52

SOS: Duke 35, Virginia 83

Quad 1 record: Duke 4-2, Virginia 3-3

Tempo: Duke No. 35 nationally, Virginia No. 353

When Duke has the ball (Duke offense vs. Virginia defense per Torvik)

Efficiency: Duke 115.2 (No. 10 nationally), Virginia 87.2 (No. 4)

Effective shooting: Duke 53.1% (No. 32), Virginia 43.5% (No. 4)

Turnover percentage: Duke 17.9% (No. 98), Virginia 19.3% (No. 141)

Rebounding percentage: Duke 34.7% (No. 19), Virginia 23.3 (No. 21)

Free throw rate: Duke 34.8 (No. 112), Virginia 22.3 (No. 9)

Three-point shooting: Duke 35.1% (No. 77), Virginia 29.4% (No. 22)

Two-point shooting: Duke 53.3 (No. 34), Virginia 43.0% (No. 7)

Free throw shooting: Duke 70.7 (No. 184), Virginia 68.4 (No. 67)

Blocked shot percentage: Duke 8.5% (No. 139), Virginia 15.8 (No. 4)

When Virginia has the ball (Duke defense vs. Virginia offense)

Efficiency: Duke 91.1 (No. 15), Virginia 101.0 (No. 190)

Effective shooting: Duke 45.8% (No. 32), Virginia 47.2% (No. 278)

Turnover percentage: Duke 20.5% (No. 81), Virginia 20.1% (No. 251)

Rebounding percentage: Duke 27.6% (No. 153), Virginia 26.9% (No. 210)

Free throw rate: Duke 31.3 (No. 158), Virginia 26.8 (No. 314)

Three-point shooting: Duke 30.1% (No. 38), Virginia 30.3% (No. 307)

Two-point shooting: Duke 46.0% (No. 55), Virginia 48.3% (No. 220)

Free throw shooting: Duke 67.0 (No. 27), Virginia 71.4 (No. 156)

Blocked shot percentage: Duke 13.5% (No. 24), Virginia 7.9% (No. 85)

Virginia leaders:

Mamadi Diakite: 13.6 ppg, 6.7 rebounds

Kihai Clark: 10.8 ppg, 6.0 assists

Braxton Key: 10.0 ppg, 7.3 rebounds

The key:

Virginia will try to follow the same blueprint as everyone else who has beaten or put a scare into the Blue Devils—penetrate and score at the rim or dish to a shooter. Kihai Clark’s ability to get past Tre Jones will be a major factor in determining the result. Duke will need to solve Virginia’s defense to get shots from outside and to work the ball into Vernon Carey in the middle.

Duke’s young team has shown some shakiness in recent games. The team will need to show maturity and poise against a veteran Virginia squad. If the Blue Devils let the frustration of the recent losses and coping with the Cavaliers get to them, there may be some finger pointing and head hanging, which would lead to disaster.

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