NC State at Duke: Preview and Tale of the Tape

Duke looks to bounce back after losing in Raleigh

Originally, this game was expected to be Duke’s chance to avenge its 88-66 loss in Raleigh two weeks ago, but when NC State travels to Cameron Indoor Stadium on Monday, the Blue Devils will just be looking for any kind of win.

Duke has lost three of four, starting with the State game. The Blue Devils need to right the ship in the final week of the season in order to head into the ACC Tournament with any momentum. The longer the struggles go on, the more Duke’s ideal path through the NCAA Tournament (1 or 2-seed, starting in Greensboro and staying in the East) will fade.

If Selection Sunday occurred now, it’s very likely that Duke would be a 3-seed and not get to start an hour or so from home. So the Blue Devils have some work to do, starting with the team that blew them out in the first game.

Duke is currently tied for third in the ACC at 13-5, 23-6 overall. The Wolfpack are in a five-way tie for fifth at 9-9, 18-11. So ACC Tourney seeding will be greatly impacted by the game. The Pack is also still fighting for its NCAA life. Most projections have NC State in the dance, but the Wolfpack could use another signature win.

Tale of the tape

KenPom rating: Duke 5, NC State 53

Torvik: Duke 5, NC State 51

Torvik prediction: Duke 82-70

NET ranking: Duke 6, NC State 55

SOS: Duke 26, NC State 71

Quad 1 record: Duke 4-4, NC State 4-4

Tempo: Duke No. 34 nationally, NC State No. 98

When Duke has the ball (Duke offense vs. NC State defense per Torvik)

Efficiency: Duke 114.6 (No. 12 nationally), NC State 97.1 (No. 74)

Effective shooting: Duke 52.5% (No. 50), NC State 47.9% (No. 105)

Turnover percentage: Duke 17.9% (No. 98), NC State 20.1% (No. 99)

Rebounding percentage: Duke 34.5% (No. 20), NC State 30.7 (No. 294)

Free throw rate: Duke 34.5 (No. 119), NC State 36.3 (No. 267)

Three-point shooting: Duke 34.8% (No. 88), NC State 31.7% (No. 91)

Two-point shooting: Duke 52.6 (No. 56), NC State 48.0% (No. 116)

Free throw shooting: Duke 70.6 (No. 188), NC State 68.3 (No. 60)

Blocked shot percentage: Duke 9.3% (No. 227), NC State 12.1 (No. 40)

When NC State has the ball (Duke defense vs. NC State offense)

Efficiency: Duke 91.1 (No. 12), NC State 109.8 (No. 46)

Effective shooting: Duke 45.7% (No. 31), NC State 50.5% (No. 132)

Turnover percentage: Duke 20.6% (No. 76), NC State 17.1% (No. 62)

Rebounding percentage: Duke 27.6% (No. 155), NC State 29.2% (No. 129)

Free throw rate: Duke 30.9 (No. 149), NC State 28.9 (No. 276)

Three-point shooting: Duke 30.1% (No. 35), NC State 32.0% (No. 236)

Two-point shooting: Duke 45.9% (No. 49), NC State 51.9% (No. 78)

Free throw shooting: Duke 67.1 (No. 29), NC State 71.2 (No. 167)

Blocked shot percentage: Duke 13.6% (No. 19), NC State 8.6% (No. 146)

NC State leaders:

C.J. Bryce: 13.4 ppg, 6.2 rebounds

Markell Johnson: 13.1 ppg, 6.5 assists

DJ Funderburk: 12.7 ppg, 6.0 rebounds

The key:

Just like in the first game, the guard matchup will be a key. State’s Markell Johnson was “good Markell” in the first game, hitting 5-of-6 from three for 28 points. He has some games where he’s not quite as dialed in, however. Tre Jones, who prides himself on his on-ball defense, will likely have something to prove after the first showing against Johnson.

State’s DJ Funderburk also outplayed likely lottery pick Vernon Carey in the first game. Duke will need to improve its interior defense and get Carey the ball on the block.

The biggest key is psychology. Duke needs to rediscover its killer instinct that seems to have departed in recent days.