Best & Worst Case Scenarios for Duke on Selection Sunday

The No. 1-ranked Duke Blue Devils are headed into the postseason on an 11-game win streak after defeating Virginia in the ACC Tournament Championship, 74-70, on Saturday night. The Blue Devils have now won three ACC Tournament titles in four seasons under head coach Jon Scheyer.

Duke was the clear-cut best team in the ACC through the entirety of the regular season, and it proved it was on another tier than the rest of the conference with another conference tournament crown. However, it didn't come without a fight from the Cavaliers.

Mar 14, 2026; Charlotte, NC, USA; Duke Blue Devils head coach Jon Scheyer cuts down the net after defeating the Virginia Cavaliers in the men's ACC Conference Tournament Championship at Spectrum Center. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

In the first meeting between Duke and Virginia in the regular season, UVA's bigs did a better job than any other frontcourt unit in college basketball in terms of containing National Player of the Year frontrunner Cameron Boozer. The Cavaliers' bigs matched that same energy on Saturday.

Boozer was limited in the scoring department, going for 13 points on 3-of-17 (17.6%) shooting from the field. This is the star rookie's lowest point total and field goal percentage in a game all season.

Mar 14, 2026; Charlotte, NC, USA; Duke Blue Devils forward Cameron Boozer (12) cuts down the net after defeating the Virginia Cavaliers in the men's ACC Conference Tournament Championship at Spectrum Center. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

However, the 6'9" forward proved why he's the best player in college hoops, going for eight rebounds, eight assists, and a steal. Even when he's not impacting the game heavily in the scoring column, he finds other ways to make winning plays.

With Selection Sunday just hours away, let's take a look at the best and worst case scenarios for the Blue Devils in terms of seeding.

Mar 14, 2026; Charlotte, NC, USA; Duke Blue Devils forward Cameron Boozer (12) celebrates after a play against the Virginia Cavaliers during the men's ACC Conference Tournament Championship at Spectrum Center. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images | Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

Best Case Scenario: No. 1 Overall Seed

This is the "best" case scenario for the Blue Devils, but it's the only feasible one. Duke is entering the NCAA Tournament as the No. 1 team in the AP Poll, the No. 1 team in the NCAA NET Rankings, and the No. 1 team at KenPom.

Duke is 16-2 in Quadrant 1, 22-2 across the first two quadrants, 15-0 at home, 10-1 on the road, and 11-2 against AP Top 25 opponents. It holds more Quad 1 victories and more victories over ranked opponents than any team in college basketball.

Mar 14, 2026; Charlotte, NC, USA; Duke Blue Devils guard Cayden Boozer (2) dribbles against Virginia Cavaliers guard Chance Mallory (2) during the men's ACC Conference Tournament Championship at Spectrum Center. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

Entering conference tournament week, Duke was in control of its own destiny in terms of earning the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament. Now that it has locked up the ACC crown, there's no feasible argument to not have Duke as the No. 1 overall seed in March Madness.

Mar 14, 2026; Charlotte, NC, USA; Duke Blue Devils guard Dame Sarr (7) celebrates after a play against the Virginia Cavaliers during the men's ACC Conference Tournament Championship at Spectrum Center. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

Worst Case Scenario: Anything Besides the No. 1 Overall Seed

As was just mentioned, there's no feasible argument to not have Duke as the top overall seed. The other two programs in contention for that spot are Michigan and Arizona. The Blue Devils own a head-to-head victory over the Wolverines, and Arizona, despite winning the Big 12 Tournament, has fewer Quadrant 1 wins than Duke.

Duke is also above Arizona in Wins Above Bubble.

Mar 13, 2026; Charlotte, NC, USA; Clemson Tigers guard Ace Buckner (21) with the ball as Duke Blue Devils guard Isaiah Evans (3) defends in the first half at Spectrum Center. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

Scheyer's club was in full control of earning the No. 1 overall seed in the big dance if it won the ACC Tournament, and now that it has, any outcome other than the top dawg wouldn't make any sense.