X-Factor Clear for Duke Against Michigan

The No. 3-ranked Duke Blue Devils (24-2, 13-1 ACC) are gearing up to take on No. 1 Michigan this Saturday in Washington, D.C. at Capital One Arena in what could very well be the best game of the entire 2025-26 college basketball season. Tip-off is set for 6:30 pm ET.

Duke is coming off a dominant 101-64 victory at Cameron Indoor Stadium on Monday night over Syracuse (15-12, 6-8 ACC), and the Blue Devils were firing on all cylinders. The Blue Devils outscored the Orange 52-30 in the paint while forcing 11 turnovers on Syracuse that turned into 17 points for Duke.

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It's no secret that the Blue Devils live inside the paint. Duke currently ranks fourth nationally in team two-point field goal percentage (62.0) and just 120th in team three-point percentage (34.9), according to KenPom.

Jon Scheyer's club has the ability to knock down outside shots at a high clip, but it hasn't made its money from the perimeter so far this season. Duke actually put together one of its best outings from beyond the arc against Syracuse, going 12-of-20 (60%) as a team.

Jan 31, 2026; Blacksburg, Virginia, USA; Duke Blue Devils head coach Jon Scheyer watches his team against the Virginia Tech Hokies during the second half against Virginia Tech Hokies at Cassell Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Brian Bishop-Imagn Images | Brian Bishop-Imagn Images

Now, the Blue Devils may need the outside shot more than usual this Saturday, as the Wolverines boast one of the most productive and one of the biggest frontcourts in college basketball with 6'9" Yaxel Lendeborg, 6'9" Morez Johnson, and 7'3" Aday Mara.

The trio complements each other extremely well, and they are effective on both sides of the ball. If the numbers indicate anything, it will be difficult for the Blue Devils to dominate inside like they are used to.

yaxe — Feb 14, 2026; Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA; Michigan Wolverines forward Yaxel Lendeborg (23) is defended by UCLA Bruins guard Skyy Clark (55) in the first half at Crisler Center. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images | Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images

According to KenPom, Michigan ranks second nationally in two-point field goal percentage (63.0%) and second nationally in two-point field goal defense (42.8%). The Wolverines also rank first in the country in average two-point attempt distance defense, which essentially means that they force opponents to take two-point shots further from the basket on average than any other team in the sport.

Isaiah Evans Is Duke’s X-Factor

Duke will likely need the outside shot to fall against the Wolverines, and that starts with the electricity that sophomore sharpshooter Isaiah Evans can bring when he's hot from the perimeter.

Evans has been hot and cold this season, but he's found his rhythm as of late, and it couldn't have come at a better time.

The North Carolina native is coming off a 21-point performance against Syracuse on 8-of-13 (61.5%) shooting from the field and 3-of-6 (50%) shooting from three. Across the Blue Devils' last three games, Evans is averaging 19.6 points per game on 12-of-21 (57.1%) from beyond the arc.

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