Why Michigan is Ultimate Test for Duke

The Duke Blue Devils will head to Washington, D.C., this weekend to take on Michigan at Capital One Arena on Feb. 21. This matchup could potentially be the best game of the entire college basketball season, while also featuring potentially the top two players in the sport in Cameron Boozer and Yaxel Lendeborg.

Duke has put together one of the best overall bodies of work in the country so far this season. The Blue Devils are 10-2 in Quadrant 1 games, more Quad 1 wins than any team in college basketball. They are also 8-2 over AP Top 25 opponents, which is more wins over ranked teams than any other team in the sport.

evan — Feb 7, 2026; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; Duke Blue Devils guard Isaiah Evans (3) shoots as North Carolina Tar Heels center Henri Veesaar (13) defends in the first half at Dean E. Smith Center. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

For the most part, Duke has dealt with minimal issues against elite competition. Duke's only losses on the year are a one-point defeat at Madison Square Garden to Texas Tech and a loss off a buzzer-beater three to North Carolina (20-5, 8-4 ACC) in Chapel Hill.

The one key part of the resume Duke lacks is a win over a perennial national title contender, and Saturday gives the Blue Devils the opportunity to get that done against the Wolverines. However, this will assuredly be the biggest test of the season for Duke.

yaxe — Feb 14, 2026; Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA; Michigan Wolverines forward Yaxel Lendeborg (23) is fouled by UCLA Bruins guard Skyy Clark (55) in the first half at Crisler Center. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images | Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images

Michigan Is Built To Slow Duke Down Offensively

Duke is a team that lives in the paint. It has the makeup to be a consistent three-point shooting team, but that hasn't come to fruition thus far into the season.

According to KenPom, Duke is fourth in the country in two-point shooting percentage (61.9), but 172nd nationally in three-point shooting percentage (34.1). The Blue Devils are 12th in the ACC in team percentage from beyond the arc.

Feb 10, 2026; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Duke Blue Devils forward Cameron Boozer (12) handles the ball against the Pittsburgh Panthers during the first half at Petersen Events Center. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images | Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

Duke has the guys to win by the three-point line, but that's not how it has made its money so far this season. Against Michigan, it will be a challenge down low.

Michigan’s Size Down Low Could Be an Issue

The Wolverines boast one of the most productive frontcourts in college hoops with 6'9" Yaxel Lendeborg, 7'3" Aday Mara, and 6'9" Morez Johnson. According to KenPom, Michigan is second nationally in two-point field goal percentage (63.0) and is also second in two-point field goal percentage defense (42.8).

Another metric to monitor is Michigan is ranked No. 1 nationally in average two-point attempt distance allowed to its opponents, according to KenPom. This essentially means the Wolverines force their opponents to take two-point shots further away from the basket on average than any other team in the sport.

adat — Ohio State Buckeyes center Christoph Tilly (13) defends Michigan Wolverines center Aday Mara (15) during the first half of the NCAA men's basketball game at the Schottenstein Center in Columbus on Feb. 8, 2026. | Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Duke is 19th at KenPom in two-point field goal defense (46.0) and 29th in average two-point attempt distance allowed. This contest bodes to be a clash between two teams who live inside, and the Blue Devils will need to be sharp to secure a victory.

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