FCS National Championship: Montana State vs. Illinois State Preview & Prediction

No. 2 seed Montana State faces Illinois State in the 2026 FCS National Championship. Kickoff is scheduled for 6:30 p.m. CT on ESPN. Everything will take place at Vanderbilt's FirstBank Stadium in Nashville, TN.

The Bobcats are searching for their first national title since 1984, while the Redbirds are still seeking their first national title at the FCS level.

2025 Prediction Record: 157-53
2022-24 Record: 382-122

No. 2 Montana State vs. Illinois State

Kickoff: 6:30 p.m. CT (ESPN)

Line: Montana State (-10.5, FanDuel)

Series History: First Meeting

Everything in this game starts with the rushing attack on each side of the ball. It's the No. 1 key for Illinois State, which has thrived throughout the postseason using ball control and a powerfulby controlling the ball and running downhill downhill rushing attack to wear down defenses and keep opposing offenses off the field.

Running back Victor Dawson has been excellent in the playoffs, rushing for over 100 yards in three of the past four games. He's been the workhorse for the Redbirds with 23 or more carries in three straight games. Wenkers Wright also returns Monday night after battling injuries this season. He has over 500 yards this season, but was an All-MVFC selection in 2024 after rushing for 1,120 yards and 11 touchdowns.

The question is whether the Redbirds can run the football against an underrated Montana State defense. The Bobcats have held postseason opponents to 3.69 yards per carry, which included holding Montana to a season-low 96 yards in the semifinals.

A lot of this success is tied to the defensive line, which has really elevated its game in the postseason. Paul Brott and Alec Eckert may not load the box score, but they set the tone from the interior, allowing other defensive players to go make the big plays. The duo has combined for 37 tackles, 8.5 tackles for loss, and four sacks.

Another interesting matchup will be Montana State's young secondary against a very talented Illinois State receiver room.

It starts with All-American Daniel Sobkowicz, who has set just about every school record for a wide receiver. He leads the Redbirds with 1,089 receiving yards and 18 touchdowns. He's a matchup nightmare in the red zone and is going to be targeted early and often on Monday night.

The bigger question is if Montana State can limit Sobkowicz, can Dylan Lord and Luke Mailander make enough plays in this game? Both of these guys have been excellent breakout players as redshirt freshmen, each topping the 500-yard mark this year and combining for seven scores.

Montana State has done an excellent job of putting a lid on opposing offenses, limiting the explosive plays, and making open-field tackles. The secondary is young but extremely talented and has matured throughout the season. Safety Caden Dowler is the unquestioned leader, posting 90 tackles, 6.5 tackles for loss, six interceptions, and four pass breakups.

Seth Johnson, Jhase McMillan, and Carson Williams will all play a key role in trying to slow down Sobkowicz on Monday night. Williams was an FCS All-American selection, totaling 43 tackles and eight pass breakups. Johnson has also been outstanding in the postseason, only allowing 54 yards on 15 targets.

One major key for Montana State's defense will be generating pressure on Tommy Rittenhouse. The Bobcats are averaging over three sacks per game in the postseason. Rittenhouse has been excellent, but really struggles under pressure. If Kenneth Eiden IV, Zac Crews, and Hunter Parsons can make Rittenhouse uncomfortable in the pocket, it could be a long night for the Redbirds.

Eiden leads the Bobcats with 16 tackles for loss and 8.5 sacks, while Parsons and Crews have combined for 18 tackles for loss and 10 sacks. This may be their toughest test, as the Redbirds have been one of the best pass-blocking offensive lines in the country. In their four playoff games, they've only allowed five sacks (1.25 sacks allowed per game) against some of the better defenses in the FCS.

On the other side, Montana State is going to look to establish the run with a dangerous two-headed monster in Adam Jones and Julius Davis. Both have rushed for over 1,000 yards this season, while Jones leads the team with 15 rushing scores. The Bobcats have rushed for 200 or more yards in six consecutive games, while really finding their stride in the postseason with 10 rushing TDs in three games.

Quarterback Justin Lamson may be the ultimate x-factor for the Bobcats. He's been ruthlessly efficient as a passer, completing 72% of his passes for 2,892 yards, 24 touchdowns, and only three interceptions. He's also a threat with his legs, rushing for 704 yards and 14 touchdowns.

Illinois State's defense has done a solid job against the run, which really starts up front with the defensive line. Garret Steffan and Jake Anderson can wreck an offensive game plan, combining for 18 tackles for loss and 10 sacks. The Redbirds' pass rush has been lethal, totaling 10 sacks in their four postseason games.

This game will really come down to whether the safeties and linebackers can win 1-on-1 matchups. Montana State's RPO scheme puts a ton of pressure on those players, making safeties CJ Richard and Lashavion Brown the x-factors when Montana State has the ball.

Richard has been outstanding in coverage this season, ranking second on the team with three interceptions. Brown ranks second with 91 tackles, adding one interception and four pass breakups. Even though Montana State doesn't really target outside corners, Cam Wilson and Shadwel Nkuba II have been stars for the Redbirds. The duo has combined for seven interceptions and 20 pass breakups.

At linebacker, Tye Niekamp leads the Redbirds with 155 tackles and 14.5 tackles for loss, adding two sacks, one interception, and eight pass breakups. He's going to be a key player to watch because you'll see him be utilized in a number of roles on Monday night. Mason Kaplan has really developed nicely next to Niekamp, adding 76 tackles, 5.5 tackles for loss, two interceptions, and four pass breakups.

Looking at the overall matchup, I think this really comes down to which team can run the ball more effectively and limit turnovers. Both of those favor Montana State, especially the latter. The Bobcats are going to run a very similar scheme to NDSU, which gave Rittenhouse some problems. I'm not sure the Redbirds can afford multiple (or even one) turnover on Monday night.

I also have a bit more confidence that Montana State will be more effective and consistent on the ground. Maybe Wright's return could offer some higher upside for the Redbirds, but Jones and Davis have been great this entire postseason run. Can the Redbirds hold up for all four quarters? Possibly, but we've seen Montana State wear down some really good teams this year, and I think that may be the difference.

It's hard to count Illinois State out of this game. The Redbirds have defied the odds week after week this postseason, but the Bobcats are playing outstanding football right now. It feels like head coach Brent Vigen has built something special in Bozeman. I wrote last week that this team has been at the precipice for multiple years now, and I think it's finally their time.

I'm going with the Bobcats to pull away late and win their first national title since 1984.

Prediction: Montana State (31-20)

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