Behind The Numbers: 2025 FCS Playoffs Second-Round Preview

Last week, we released our Behind The Numbers breakdown of all 24 teams in the field, including each team's strengths and weaknesses. You can find descriptions of all the relevant stats used there as well.

It's time to shift our focus to all the second-round games scheduled for Saturday. We took all the data from our Behind the Numbers preview to create direct head-to-head comparisons for every second-round matchup. All statistical rankings are listed 1-24, giving you an idea of where each team ranks in comparison to the rest of the postseason teams.

Below we go behind the numbers of all the second-round matchups of the 2025 FCS Playoffs.

No. 9 Rhode Island at No. 8 UC Davis

When UC Davis Has The Ball:

UC Davis	Rhode Island
Total Offense (6.68 YPP, 8th)	Total Defense (4.7 YPP, 7th)
Success Rate (50.3%, 3rd)	Success Rate (38.6%, 14th)
Rushing Offense (4.9 YPC, 7th)	Rushing Defense (3.7 YPC, 10th)
Passing Offense (8.9 YPA, 6th)	Passing Defense (5.9 YPA, 3rd)
Turnover Rate (2.2%, 22nd)	Turnovers Forced (2%, 18th)
RZ TD% (65.1%, 15th)	RZ TD% Allowed (53.7%, 9th)
Pressure Allowed (35%, 21st)	Pressure Rate (42.8%, 8th)
TFL Allowed (6.4%, 6th)	TFL Rate (8.61%, 14th)

When Rhode Island Has The Ball:

Rhode Island	UC Davis
Total Offense (6.65 YPP, 10th)	Total Defense (6.0 YPP, 23rd)
Success Rate (47.8%, 7th)	Success Rate (42.9%, 23rd)
Rushing Offense (4.3 YPC, 19th)	Rushing Defense (4.9 YPC, 24th)
Passing Offense (9.2 YPA, 3rd)	Passing Defense (7.2 YPA, 19th)
Turnover Rate (2.5%, 24th)	Turnovers Forced (2.1%, 15th)
RZ TD% (65.9%, 13th)	RZ TD% Allowed (67.4%, 18th)
Pressure Allowed (26%, 11th)	Pressure Rate (30%, 22nd)
TFL Allowed (6.9%, 10th)	TFL Rate (6.9%, 22nd)

This should be a fun offensive matchup between two of the better quarterbacks we have in the playoff field. Both Caden Pinnick and Devin Farrell are accurate passers who like to extend plays from the pocket and push the ball downfield. Both players have also occasionally struggled with turnovers in their careers.

There will also be plenty of wide receiver talent on display in this one. Rhode Island's Marquis Buchanan leads the way with 1,224 yards, averaging 17 yards per catch. The Rams get plenty of other contributions from Greg Gaines, Aboraa Kwarteng, and tight end Connor Finer. They should find success against this banged-up UC Davis secondary, which ranked 19th in the playoffs. Samuel Gbatu Jr., Stacey Dobbins, and tight end Ian Simpson make up an excellent receiving trio on the other side. I expect both offenses to find success.

This game may come down to which team's pass rush can make the biggest impact, generating negative plays, turnovers, and making the opposing quarterback uncomfortable. Rhode Island has the better overall pass rush, led by A.J. Pena, along with better talent at cornerback.

UC Davis needs a big game from defensive end Jacob Psyk, while the rushing attack with Jordan Fisher may be the x-factor. If they can run the ball, it'll help neutralize the pass rush and keep Pinnick out of dangerous situations.

The Pick: UC Davis

No. 10 Abilene Christian at No. 7 Stephen F. Austin

When Stephen F. Austin Has The Ball:

Stephen F. Austin	Abilene Christian
Total Offense (5.6 YPP, 22nd)	Total Defense (5.4 YPP, 16th)
Success Rate (46.7%, 12th)	Success Rate (39.8%, 17th)
Rushing Offense (4.2 YPC, 21st)	Rushing Defense (3.8 YPC, 14th)
Passing Offense (7.3 YPA, 20th)	Passing Defense (7.0 YPA, 17th)
Turnover Rate (1.8%, 18th)	Turnovers Forced (2.9%, 4th)
RZ TD% (72.3%, 8th)	RZ TD% Allowed (70.3%, 21st)
Pressure Allowed (25.9%, 9th)	Pressure Rate (24.5%, 24th)
TFL Allowed (7.3%, 12th)	TFL Rate (7.1%, 21st)

When Abilene Christian Has The Ball:

Abilene Christian	Stephen F. Austin
Total Offense (5.9 YPP, 16th)	Total Defense (4.1 YPP, 1st)
Success Rate (45.2%, 17th)	Success Rate (32.4%, 3rd)
Rushing Offense (4.6 YPC, 16th)	Rushing Defense (2.4 YPC, 2nd)
Passing Offense (7.5 YPA, 18th)	Passing Defense (6.0 YPA, 4th)
Turnover Rate (1.7%, 14th)	Turnovers Forced (2.7%, 5th)
RZ TD% (59.6%, 20th)	RZ TD% Allowed (51.7%, 7th)
Pressure Allowed (29.4%, 18th)	Pressure Rate (48.4%, 1st)
TFL Allowed (8.1%, 19th)	TFL Rate (14.6%, 1st)

The game is one of the two rematches that we get in the second round. Abilene Christian won the first matchup 28-20 all the way back in Week 2, but that game was at home. This matchup will feature one of the best defenses and defensive lines in the country in Stephen F. Austin, along with one of the most balanced teams in the field in Abilene Christian.

The first game was an odd one as SFA jumped out to a 14-0 lead before ACU went on a 28-0 run over the next two quarters, including a defensive touchdown. The Lumberjacks were able to cut the lead to one score with a punt return in the fourth quarter.

Neither team ran the ball efficiently, especially Stephen F. Austin. Both Stone Earle and Sam Vidlak found success through the air, but the real difference came in turnovers: SFA had three, while ACU had one. The Wildcats also had two crucial red-zone stops to secure the win.

In a rematch, look for turnovers and red-zone performance to be huge factors. The team that wins those battles likely will win this game. Also, if either team could find some success on the ground, that could really tip the scales in their favor.

The Pick: Abilene Christian

No. 11 South Dakota at No. 6 Mercer

When Mercer Has The Ball:

Mercer	South Dakota
Total Offense (7.0 YPP, 2nd)	Total Defense (5.7 YPP, 20th)
Success Rate (48.2%, 6th)	Success Rate (42.7%, 21st)
Rushing Offense (4.9 YPC, 9th)	Rushing Defense (4.3 YPC, 19th)
Passing Offense (8.9 YPA, 5th)	Passing Defense (7.5 YPA, 22nd)
Turnover Rate (1.8%, 16th)	Turnovers Forced (1.5%, 24th)
RZ TD% (69.6%, 9th)	RZ TD% Allowed (68.2%, 20th)
Pressure Allowed (19%, 2nd)	Pressure Rate (29.3%, 23rd)
TFL Allowed (5.9%, 4th)	TFL Rate (5.42%, 24th)

When South Dakota Has The Ball:

South Dakota	Mercer
Total Offense (5.9 YPP, 15th)	Total Defense (5.4 YPP, 15th)
Success Rate (46.6%, 15th)	Success Rate (28%, 1st)
Rushing Offense (4.9 YPC, 8th)	Rushing Defense (2.9 YPC, 4th)
Passing Offense (7.5 YPA, 16th)	Passing Defense (8.0 YPA, 24th)
Turnover Rate (1.2%, 8th)	Turnovers Forced (2.2%, 12th)
RZ TD% (57.5%, 21st)	RZ TD% Allowed (56%, 13th)
Pressure Allowed (35.6%, 23rd)	Pressure Rate (44.2%, 5th)
TFL Allowed (6.5%, 7th)	TFL Rate (13.1%, 2nd)

Mercer is a much different football team than the one that made the FCS Playoffs last season. Last year's team was led by a dominant defense, but it really struggled offensively with the offensive line and passing game.

This Mercer offense is completely different now. After allowing a ton of negative plays and pressure, this year's offensive line is now Top 5 in both pressure rate and TFLs allowed. Mercer also boasts one of the best passing offenses in the country behind freshman superstar Braden Atkinson.

On paper, this is not a great matchup for South Dakota's defense. The Coyotes don't generate many negative plays or pressure on opposing quarterbacks. They have also given up bigger plays in the passing game against the better passing attacks they have faced. Mercer also features one of the deepest wide receiver rooms in the country, which will be a massive test for South Dakota's defense.

On the other side of the ball, we know South Dakota wants to establish the run with L.J. Phillips Jr. and then hit deep shots to Larenzo Fenner with the big arm of Aidan Bouman. Mercer has one of the best run defenses in the country again, but gives up a ton of explosive plays over the top. The Bears will generate a lot of pressure and look to create turnovers behind Buck Buchanan Award finalist Andrew Zock. South Dakota also ranks 23rd of 24 playoff teams in pressure rate allowed.

On paper, this is not a very good matchup for South Dakota; however, you could argue this is the most talented FCS team Mercer has faced, certainly since UC Davis in Week 0. This game will most likely come down to how much success L.J. Phillips Jr. and the South Dakota run game can find, keeping the Coyotes on schedule offensively.

The Pick: Mercer

No. 12 Villanova at No. 5 Lehigh

When Lehigh Has The Ball:

Lehigh	Villanova
Total Offense (6.97 YPP, 3rd)	Total Defense (5.6 YPP, 18th)
Success Rate (47.3%, 10th)	Success Rate (38.1%, 13th)
Rushing Offense (5.9 YPC, 1st)	Rushing Defense (4.0 YPC, 17th)
Passing Offense (9.0 YPA, 4th)	Passing Defense (7.3 YPA, 21st)
Turnover Rate (0.9%, 4th)	Turnovers Forced (1.6%, 23rd)
RZ TD% (66.7%, 12th)	RZ TD% Allowed (62.9%, 17th)
Pressure Allowed (18.1%, 1st)	Pressure Rate (36.8%, 15th)
TFL Allowed (5.0%, 3rd)	TFL Rate (7.7%, 20th)

When Villanova Has The Ball:

Villanova	Lehigh
Total Offense (6.2 YPP, 12th)	Total Defense (4.59 YPP, 4th)
Success Rate (47.5%, 9th)	Success Rate (33.8%, 6th)
Rushing Offense (4.8 YPC, 13th)	Rushing Defense (2.5 YPC, 3rd)
Passing Offense (8.0 YPA, 14th)	Passing Defense (6.6 YPA, 12th)
Turnover Rate (0.7%, 1st)	Turnovers Forced (2.3%, 11th)
RZ TD% (62.5%, 16th)	RZ TD% Allowed (48.3%, 4th)
Pressure Allowed (21.8%, 5th)	Pressure Rate (41.3%, 10th)
TFL Allowed (10.6%, 24th)	TFL Rate (10.5%, 8th)

Lehigh has one of the most impressive statistical profiles of any team in the playoffs outside of NDSU and Montana State. The Mountain Hawks have the best rushing offense in the field, while maintaining explosiveness in the passing game. They almost never turn the ball over and rarely give up negative plays.

On the other side of the ball, Lehigh boasts one of the top rushing defenses in the country, which may define this game on Saturday. Isaiah Ragland and Ja'briel Mace were able to run all over Harvard in the first round, forcing a ton of missed tackles. This is a vastly different group that they will see this weekend.

The weakest part of the Lehigh defense has been the secondary, which means Pat McQuaide will need to make big throws on key downs. Villanova's rushing defense will also be tested, but the health of Lehigh running back Jaden Green will be a key storyline to watch. On paper, Villanova lacks key matchup advantages against Lehigh, but the Wildcats have been playing their best football of the season.

The Pick: Lehigh

North Dakota at No. 4 Tarleton State

When Tarleton State Has The Ball:

Tarleton State	North Dakota
Total Offense (6.8 YPP, 7th)	Total Defense (4.6 YPP, 5th)
Success Rate (47.7%, 8th)	Success Rate (38.7%, 15th)
Rushing Offense (5.1 YPC, 6th)	Rushing Defense (3.0 YPC, 5th)
Passing Offense (9.3 YPA, 2nd)	Passing Defense (6.5 YPA, 10th)
Turnover Rate (0.8%, 2nd)	Turnovers Forced (2.6%, 7th)
RZ TD% (72.4%, 7th)	RZ TD% Allowed (54.8%, 10th)
Pressure Allowed (21.8%, 5th)	Pressure Rate (39.9%, 11th)
TFL Allowed (9.5%, 22nd)	TFL Rate (9.7%, 10th)

When North Dakota Has The Ball:

North Dakota	Tarleton State
Total Offense (5.7 YPP, 18th)	Total Defense (5.2 YPP, 14th)
Success Rate (46.7%, 12th)	Success Rate (39.1%, 16th)
Rushing Offense (4.9 YPC, 12th)	Rushing Defense (4.4 YPC, 21st)
Passing Offense (6.8 YPA, 23rd)	Passing Defense (6.6 YPA, 11th)
Turnover Rate (1.9%, 21st)	Turnovers Forced (4.8%, 1st)
RZ TD% (68.4%, 10th)	RZ TD% Allowed (44.8%, 2nd)
Pressure Allowed (26.7%, 13th)	Pressure Rate (42.3%, 9th)
TFL Allowed (7.5%, 13th)	TFL Rate (12.2%, 4th)

North Dakota should find more success on the ground than they did last week against Tennessee Tech. However, the offense they face this weekend is dramatically better than the one they saw last week. First of all, Tarleton State has rarely turned the football over this season. Victor Gabalis is playing like the experienced signal caller you would expect him to be.

The first key for North Dakota will be slowing down Tarleton State's rushing attack, forcing the Texans out of their RPO Deep Choice offense into 3rd-and-longs. The team that wins this matchup will go a long way in determining how the rest of this game plays out.

On the other side, North Dakota will need to be much better through the air and take great care of the ball. Tarleton State is one of the best teams in the country at bringing pressure with its front seven, creating turnovers. Jerry Kaminski, who still needs to be cleared, or Simon Romfo, will need to make this Tarleton State defense pay for being aggressive.

The formula for North Dakota will be to control time of possession and stay ahead of the sticks with their run game. If they can do this without turning the ball over, they give themselves a really good chance in this game.

The Pick: Tarleton State

No. 14 South Dakota State at No. 3 Montana

When Montana Has The Ball:

Montana	SDSU
Total Offense (6.8 YPP, 9th)	Total Defense (5.1 YPP, 13th)
Success Rate (44.7%, 18th)	Success Rate (37.8%, 12th)
Rushing Offense (4.9 YPC, 11th)	Rushing Defense (3.7 YPC, 9th)
Passing Offense (8.7 YPA, 7th)	Passing Defense (6.7 YPA, 13th)
Turnover Rate (1.5%, 10th)	Turnovers Forced (3.0%, 3rd)
RZ TD% (80%, 1st)	RZ TD% Allowed (54.8%, 10th)
Pressure Allowed (28%, T-16th)	Pressure Rate (44.1%, 6th)
TFL Allowed (8.0%, 18th)	TFL Rate (9.0%, 11th)

When South Dakota State Has The Ball:

SDSU	Montana
Total Offense (5.2 YPP, 23rd)	Total Defense (5.7 YPP, 22nd)
Success Rate (43.1%, 20th)	Success Rate (37.4%, 11th)
Rushing Offense (3.7 YPC, 24th)	Rushing Defense (4.2 YPC, 18th)
Passing Offense (7.4 YPA, 19th)	Passing Defense (7.2 YPA, 18th)
Turnover Rate (1.9%, 20th)	Turnovers Forced (2.6%, 6th)
RZ TD% (61.5%, 17th)	RZ TD% Allowed (56%, 13th)
Pressure Allowed (25.9%, 9th)	Pressure Rate (32.2%, 19th)
TFL Allowed (8.4%, 20th)	TFL Rate (7.9%, 18th)

This may be the most anticipated matchup of the second game as South Dakota State gets a chance to sweep the Montana schools on the road. Of course, a big part of this game is the return of South Dakota State quarterback Chase Mason. The Jackrabbits have not lost this year with Mason in the lineup.

Analyzing the numbers for this matchup is tough because the Jackrabbits aren't the same team they were in Week 1 or 2, but they also aren't the same team they were in the last few games of the season.

This Montana offense has struggled at times with inconsistency, but in the biggest games, they have been excellent and boast one of the most dangerous groups of skill players in the country. This game starts with Eli Gillman's success on the ground. SDSU still has one of the best rushing defenses in the country.

In fact, I think this game may come down to how well Montana can block SDSU's front seven. If Montana can establish the run with Gillman, giving Ah Yat time to distribute the ball, it will be hard for SDSU to keep pace on the road in a hostile environment. Montana also has the most efficient red zone offense in the country.

On the other hand, Montana's defense has a slightly different profile than it has in recent years. While they still play a 3-3-5 scheme and give unique looks, they are a little more conservative in the types of pressures they bring in years past. This Montana defense is solid throughout, though not particularly exceptional in any one area. The one spot they've been elite in is forcing turnovers, ranking 6th among playoff teams.

It'll be important for Chase Mason to be kept clean in the pocket and not put the ball in danger. SDSU may also find success in some power run game, facing a defense that is a bit undersized. Montana is tough up front, but as seen in the Brawl of the Wild, it can be worn down late in the game. I think we will see a very competitive, close game on Saturday, determined by turnovers, red-zone effectiveness, and 3rd-down execution.

The Pick: Montana

Yale at No. 2 Montana State

When Montana State Has The Ball:

Montana State	Yale
Total Offense (6.9 YPP, 4th)	Total Defense (4.8 YPP, 8th)
Success Rate (52.7%, 2nd)	Success Rate (36.2%, 9th)
Rushing Offense (5.8 YPC, 4th)	Rushing Defense (3.1 YPC, 7th)
Passing Offense (8.7 YPA, 9th)	Passing Defense (6.5 YPA, 9th)
Turnover Rate (1.0%, 5th)	Turnovers Forced (2.0%, 16th)
RZ TD% (74.5%, 3rd)	RZ TD% Allowed (37.9%, 1st)
Pressure Allowed (28%, T-16th)	Pressure Rate (42.9%, 7th)
TFL Allowed (6.6%, 9th)	TFL Rate (8.3%, 15th)

When Yale Has The Ball:

Yale	Montana State
Total Offense (5.8 YPP, 17th)	Total Defense (4.8 YPP, 9th)
Success Rate (42.7%, 22nd)	Success Rate (33.7%, 5th)
Rushing Offense (4.3 YPC, 18th)	Rushing Defense (3.8 YPC, 13th)
Passing Offense (8.2 YPA, 10th)	Passing Defense (5.7 YPA, 2nd)
Turnover Rate (1.8%, 19th)	Turnovers Forced (2.4%, 9th)
RZ TD% (55%, 23rd)	RZ TD% Allowed (62.2%, 16th)
Pressure Allowed (27%, 14th)	Pressure Rate (32.2%, 20th)
TFL Allowed (4.6%, 2nd)	TFL Rate (8.7%, 13th)

Montana State has a very similar offensive statistical profile to Youngstown State. The problem for Yale is that, while the Bobcats are similar in profile, they are a better version of Youngstown State's offense in nearly every aspect. Montana State is also much more talented at running back than YSU, meaning Yale is going to have to find a way to disrupt that rushing attack if they have any chance to win.

The other unfortunate thing for Yale is that Montana State's defense is significantly better than Youngstown State's defense. Montana State is solid at all three levels and does not have an obvious weakness. Yale's best shot here will be to have a clean game and make this a low-possession battle.

Yale had an incredible game last week, showing great resiliency, but this week is a different challenge. The Bulldogs don't really have any advantages on paper, needing a special performance to stay in this game with a chance to win.

The Pick: Montana State

Illinois State at No. 1 North Dakota State

When North Dakota State Has The Ball:

NDSU	Illinois State
Total Offense (7.5 YPP, 1st)	Total Defense (5.5 YPP, 17th)
Success Rate (54.3%, 1st)	Success Rate (43.7%, 24th)
Rushing Offense (5.4 YPC, 5th)	Rushing Defense (3.9 YPC, 16th)
Passing Offense (11.9 YPA, 1st)	Passing Defense (7.3 YPA, 20th)
Turnover Rate (1.1%, 7th)	Turnovers Forced (2.0%, 17th)
RZ TD% (74.1%, 4th)	RZ TD% Allowed (71.1%, 23rd)
Pressure Allowed (33.6%, 20th)	Pressure Rate (37%, 14th)
TFL Allowed (7.9%, 17th)	TFL Rate (8.2%, 16th)

When Illinois State Has The Ball:

Illinois State	NDSU
Total Offense (5.6 YPP, 20th)	Total Defense (4.1 YPP, 2nd)
Success Rate (47.3%, 10th)	Success Rate (31.9%, 2nd)
Rushing Offense (4.6 YPC, 17th)	Rushing Defense (3.0 YPC, 6th)
Passing Offense (6.9 YPA, 22nd)	Passing Defense (5.6 YPA, 1st)
Turnover Rate (1.5%, 12th)	Turnovers Forced (3.3%, 2nd)
RZ TD% (77.1%, 2nd)	RZ TD% Allowed (51.9%, 8th)
Pressure Allowed (19.8%, 3rd)	Pressure Rate (47.3%, 2nd)
TFL Allowed (6.5%, 8th)	TFL Rate (10.6%, 7th)

Here is another rematch in the second round. North Dakota State won the first game 33-16 on the road in a game that came after Illinois State's bye week. This time, the game will be in Fargo after an NDSU bye week. Despite the final score, the first game was 18-16 entering the fourth quarter before NDSU slammed the door shut.

In the first game, Illinois State found some success on the ground. Victor Dawson and Wenkers Wright combined for 125 rushing yards on 23 carries (5.4 YPC), which allowed the Redbirds to play ball control and keep the ball out of Cole Payton's hands. NDSU ran only 50 plays that night, but two turnovers and red-zone struggles led to Illinois State's downfall. They need to execute the same formula and not make those same mistakes if they want a chance to win this game.

Speaking of this NDSU team, the Bison have a dominant statistical profile. They rank Top 8 (mostly Top 2) in every statistical category on offense and defense of all the teams in the field, except pressure allowed and TFLs allowed. This team does not really have any obvious flaws, is much more well-rounded than last year's team, and they have a superpower in the explosive, downfield passing game with Payton and Bryce Lance. Everything would have to go right for Illinois State to make this a game.

The Pick: North Dakota State

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