Behind The Numbers: Montana State vs. Illinois State Preview (FCS Championship)

The stage is set for a new national champion to be crowned in Nashville next Monday night. No. 2 seed Montana State will face Illinois State in the 2026 FCS national championship game. Kickoff is scheduled for Jan. 5th at 6:30 p.m. CT on ESPN.

Throughout the postseason, we have compared the most important statistics for each playoff matchup. We will take a look at some key statistical matchups and discuss potential x-factors, as well as how recent playoff performances could influence who takes home the trophy on Monday night.

Below, we go behind the numbers for the FCS national championship game between Montana State and Illinois State.

When Montana State Has The Ball:

In any Montana State game, the first thing to analyze is how successful the Bobcats will be running the ball. The Bobcats have averaged at least five yards per carry against every FCS team they have played this season. In their three playoff games, they have been even better with an average of 5.59 yards per carry and nearly 240 rushing yards per game.

Even in games like South Dakota State and Stephen F. Austin, where the Bobcats struggled to run the ball early, they eventually found ways to attack the edges of the defense and wear opponents down. You could argue that this is the best defensive line and linebackers Montana State will have faced since Week 2.

Illinois State's run defense, led by Jake Anderson, Garret Steffen, and Tye Niekamp, has held opponents to 3.79 yards per carry and 99 yards per game in the postseason. In fact, if you remove the UC Davis game, which skews the data since Illinois State had a big lead that Davis was chasing, they've only given up 3.29 yards per carry.

To be fair, on the other side, this is easily the most diverse, dangerous rushing attack that Illinois State has faced. Julius Davis and Adam Jones are hitting their stride and playing their best football. The two backs have combined for 20 missed tackles and 15 explosive plays in three postseason games.

Illinois State must mitigate the damage done on the ground by Davis, Jones, and Justin Lamson to stay in the game and keep Montana State in 3rd-and-medium to 3-and-long situations. If the Redbirds can slow down the rushing attack, the passing attack comes into focus.

Illinois State has been very aggressive in their 3-4 scheme this postseason. They have blitzed (sent 4+ rushers) opponents on 61.5% of their dropbacks. In fact, against NDSU and Villanova, that number was nearly 80%. The Redbirds have generated pressure on 32.8% of opponent dropbacks in the postseason with an average of 2.5 sacks per game. More crucially, they've forced quarterbacks to get rid of the ball quickly.

Justin Lamson has been very good this season at extending plays from the pocket to make the throws he wants. Lamson has one of the longest "Time to Throw" metrics in the country despite facing pressure at a rate that is average. He holds onto the ball and makes plays against pressure.

The question will be how well does Illinois State's backend hold up against Montana State's RPO slants and crossing routes. Since the Redbirds bring extra rushers so often, it means that they often play man coverage. That can be a good option to neutralize the RPO passing game because defenders are no longer in conflict; they just cover their guy.

However, it also gives the opportunity to give up explosive plays if a man gets beaten 1-on-1. This happened frequently in the UC Davis game, where the Aggies took advantage of the slot matchup against La'Shavion Brown. They targeted Brown eight times, completing all eight passes for 115 yards and two touchdowns. That's over 14 yards per pass attempt.

UC Davis also used running back Jordan Fisher to target linebacker Tye Niekamp. Fisher had two catches for 31 yards, both going for first downs. UC Davis was able to target linebackers Patrick Bauer and Dexter Niekamp with similar success. Mason Kaplan and CJ Richard Jr. both held up very well in coverage and will need to do so again this week.

You would think that Montana State could use Taco Dowler, Jabez Woods, and Dane Steel to a similar effect. Also, look for Adam Jones to be used as a receiver out of the backfield, where he has been particularly dangerous over this playoff run. Tight end Rocky Lencioni is another player to watch. He has six touchdowns, no drops, and 18 catches on 21 targets this season.

Montana State Bobcats quarterback Justin Lamson (8) | Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images

When Illinois State Has The Ball:

Illinois State has had a clear formula offensively this postseason that has continued to work well for them. Possess the ball and maintain methodical drives to keep opposing offenses off the field.

The Redbirds lead all playoff teams in time of possession this postseason. If you look at their past three games, the Redbirds have held the ball for an average of nearly 39 minutes per game. That means that Illinois State has had the ball for two-thirds of every game, which has been a huge advantage for them.

While their yards per carry have not been anything special, they have been able to eliminate negative plays and stay ahead of the chains with consistent four and five-yard runs from workhorse Victor Dawson. He leads all playoff players with 97 carries in postseason games. The next-closest players (Gillman/Mace) had only 58 carries.

As a team, Illinois State is only averaging 4.6 yards per carry, but the Redbirds have been consistent enough to make it matter. It will help that Wenkers Wright is set to return from injury. It is safe to say that the Redbirds will be facing the best rushing defense they have seen in a while.

Montana State is only allowing 3.69 yards per carry in the postseason and has only allowed more than 4.0 yards per carry three times this year against FCS opponents. Defensive linemen Paul Brott, Alec Eckert, and Kenneth Eiden IV are a huge part of that success.

The best comparison for Montana State's rushing defense is actually Southeastern Louisiana. Illinois State's rushing attack struggled in that game, only getting 145 yards on 3.5 yards per carry. I struggle to see the rushing attack having much success against this Montana State defensive front.

This puts a ton of focus on Tommy Rittenhouse, Daniel Sobkowicz, and this Redbird passing attack. The great thing about this offense is that the pass game has contributed to their ball-control style as well. Rittenhouse has been good at picking apart zone defenses with short-to-intermediate throws, keeping the chains moving and the clock rolling.

A good comparison is the North Dakota State game. The Bison played a similar style to what Montana State regularly shows. The Bobcats almost always send four pass rushers, only blitzing about 10% of the time, and drop seven players into zone coverage.

The main objective is to take away the big play and force offenses to execute with a high level of consistency. They bank on the fact that opponents will beat themselves eventually, and they mostly do at this level.

Interestingly, in the NDSU game, Rittenhouse only averaged 4.79 yards per pass attempt, a pretty dismal number. However, I'd argue the pass game was very effective because they slowly but patiently kept moving the chains.

The key to Rittenhouse's success is a clean pocket. He's been bad under pressure this season, completing less than 47% of his throws, and can have a real turnover issue in these situations. The good news is that Illinois State may have the best pass-blocking offensive line in the entire country. They have the highest-graded pass-blocking grade, according to PFF and the lowest pressure rate allowed among playoff teams.

Montana State entered the postseason with one of the lowest pressure rates among playoff teams. However, the Bobcats have cranked up their pass-rush in meaningful situations this postseason.

The Bobcats are now averaging over 3.0 sacks per game in the playoffs, led by Kenneth Eiden IV and Zac Crews. In the past five games, Eiden had six sacks and 9.5 tackles for loss, while Crews added 3.5 sacks and five tackles for loss in that span.

While Illinois State's offensive line has been excellent, it did struggle some against NDSU's 4-man pass rush. They gave up pressure on 31% of dropbacks in that game, which led to five interceptions from Rittenhouse. If Montana State can find a way to get pressure with four, the game might be over right there.

The last thing to look at is how Montana State matches up with superstar wide receiver Daniel Sobkowicz. Expect several players to match up with him as Montana State will play zone coverage and look to take away the deep ball from Sobkowicz.

Sobkowicz is a diverse route runner who can do damage at all three levels. He's been targeted 61 times underneath (0-9 yards), 37 times in the intermediate range (10-19 yards), and 30 times on deep balls (20+ yards). He's been very effective, scoring five or more touchdowns at all three levels. The Redbirds line him up out wide, but will use concepts to get him matched up against all levels of the defense.

Against NDSU, he was targeted 13 times with eight catches, five for first downs, and three touchdowns. Most of his success came against linebackers and safeties across the middle in those zone defenses. Montana State hasn't seen a receiver like Sobkowicz this season, except maybe Lofton O'Groske all the way back in Week 2. O'Groske had an unbelievable 13 catches on 15 targets for seven first downs and two touchdowns.

To add even more context, this is before Seth Johnson cracked the rotation, and he's developed into Montana State's best cornerback. In fact, with all the youth in Montana State's secondary, it is safe to say that this unit is much improved since that Week 2 matchup.

Still, O'Groske faced eight different players in coverage, and I'd expect to see similar numbers for Sobkowicz on Monday night. Illinois State will need Sobkowicz to make 4-5 special plays to give them a chance to win, and he's proven he is very capable of it.

Illinois State wide receiver Daniel Sobkowicz (2) | Illinois State Athletics

X-Factors:

There are a few things I want to highlight at the end of this analysis. Montana State has been awesome on third downs throughout the postseason, converting over 52% of the time. They were particularly effective in the semifinals against Montana, where they were 8-of-11 on third down at one point.

On the other hand, Illinois State has been outstanding defensively on third downs, holding opponents to 15-of-49 (31%) on third downs. If Montana State is consistently converting on third down, it will be tough for Illinois State to win this game.

The same applies to red zone efficiency. Montana State has scored touchdowns on 11-of-15 red zone attempts, while Illinois State has only allowed five touchdowns on 12 red zone appearances. If Illinois State can force red-zone turnovers and hold the Bobcats to field goals, it gives them a great shot at pulling off the upset.

The last factor that I see turning the outcome of this game is depth. Montana State has 19 players that consistently see significant snaps defensively, while Illinois State has been closer to 15, and against NDSU in their only real close game this postseason, only 14 defensive players played significant snaps.

Montana State has done an excellent job wearing teams down in the second half of these important games. I think they have a real chance to do that again. Combine that with the fact that I trust Justin Lamson's decision-making more than Tommy Rittenhouse, and I think that leads the Bobcats to their first national championship since 1984.

The Pick: Montana State

Follow FCS Football Central on social media for ongoing coverage of FCS football, including on X, Facebook, and YouTube.