Behind The Numbers: Week 12 FCS Football Preview

It's a massive weekend of FCS football as the race for the postseason is heating up with only two weeks remaining until Selection Sunday.

There are a handful of key matchups that will have a major impact on the FCS Playoff picture, along with potential seeding implications and conference championship races. We wanted to take a closer look at some of these must-see games, examining the numbers behind them to determine which teams are in the best position to make a statement on Saturday.

All the statistics below are from conference play only, providing a more accurate picture of how these teams are performing currently. It helps remove outliers, such as FBS and Division II opponents.

Below we go behind the numbers of some of the biggest games on the Week 12 slate.

No. 14 Illinois State at No. 16 South Dakota State

When Illinois State Has The Ball:

Illinois State	South Dakota State
Scoring Offense (33.5 PPG, 3rd in MVFC)	Scoring Defense (22.2 PPG, 3rd in MVFC)
Total Offense (6.0 YPP, 4th)	Total Defense (5.8 YPP, 4th)
Rushing Offense (4.6 YPC, 5th)	Rushing Defense (4.1 YPC, 3rd)
Passing Offense (7.7 YPA, T-3rd)	Passing Defense (7.7 YPA, 8th)
Sacks Allowed Per Game (1.5, 4th)	Sacks Per Game (2.0, 3rd)
RZ TD% (77.4%, 2nd)	RZ TD% Allowed (50%, 2nd)

When South Dakota State Has The Ball:

South Dakota State	Illinois State
Scoring Offense (22.8 PPG, 7th in MVFC)	Scoring Defense (25.7 PPG, 5th in MVFC)
Total Offense (5.3 YPP, 8th)	Total Defense (5.9 YPP, 6th)
Rushing Offense (3.9 YPC, 9th)	Rushing Defense (4.6 YPC, 5th)
Passing Offense (7.1 YPA, 7th)	Passing Defense (7.5 YPA, 6th)
Sacks Allowed Per Game (2.3, 9th)	Sacks Per Game (1.3, 7th)
RZ TD% (75%, 3rd)	RZ TD% Allowed (62.5%, 5th)

This is a massive conference matchup that features several playoff implications at stake. It's a matchup that features one of the best offenses in the conference (Illinois State) against what has been one of the worst offenses in the MVFC (South Dakota State). The SDSU defense has still been near the top of the MVFC, while Illinois State has been near the middle of the pack in nearly every statistical category.

The Jackrabbits will have to find a way to establish the run against an Illinois State run defense that's very similar to what SDSU saw last week against South Dakota. South Dakota State's running backs averaged less than four yards per carry last week, and the Jackrabbits have the 9th-ranked rushing attack in the MVFC.

On the other hand, the one area South Dakota State has struggled in is pass defense, ranking 8th in the MVFC. Despite that, the Jackrabbits still rank 3rd in the conference in sacks. Tommy Rittenhouse and the Redbirds have one of the best passing attacks in the MVFC, which features wide receiver Daniel Sobkowicz. Freshman Dylan Lord has been a revelation next to Sobkowicz, posting 355 receiving yards.

The one area South Dakota State must excel in this weekend is the red zone. This game boasts the 2nd-best red zone offense in the MVFC against the 2nd-best red zone defense in the conference. Of course, the availability of quarterback Chase Mason needs to be monitored.

No. 11 Rhode Island at Maine

When Rhode Island Has The Ball:

Rhode Island	Maine
Scoring Offense (38.3 PPG, 1st in CAA)	Scoring Defense (19 PPG, 1st in CAA)
Total Offense (6.8 YPP, 1st)	Total Defense (4.4 YPP, 1st)
Rushing Offense (4.0 YPC, 8th)	Rushing Defense (2.9 YPC, 1st)
Passing Offense (10.6 YPA, 1st)	Passing Defense (5.9 YPA, 2nd)
Sacks Allowed Per Game (2.3, 8th)	Sacks Per Game (3.3, 1st)
RZ TD% (65.2%, 7th)	RZ TD% Allowed (86.7%, 14th)

When Maine Has The Ball:

Maine	Rhode Island
Scoring Offense (32.7 PPG, 4th in CAA)	Scoring Defense (19.7 PPG, 2nd in CAA)
Total Offense (5.8 YPP, 5th)	Total Defense (4.6 YPP, 2nd)
Rushing Offense (4.5 YPC, 4th)	Rushing Defense (3.7 YPC, 5th)
Passing Offense (7.5 YPA, 5th)	Passing Defense (5.8 YPA, 1st)
Sacks Allowed Per Game (1.0, 2nd)	Sacks Per Game (3.2, 2nd)
RZ TD% (69.6%, 4th)	RZ TD% Allowed (50%, 2nd)

All the numbers point toward this as a battle between the best offense in the CAA against the best defense in the CAA. Maine's defensive line is impressive, being efficient against the run and excellent when rushing the passer. The Black Bears' best path to victory is overwhelming Rhode Island's offensive line with their pass rush and forcing Devin Farrell into mistakes. Interestingly enough, Maine allows teams into the end zone at an alarming rate in the red zone.

Rhode Island's defense has also been excellent this season, looking like the second-best unit in the CAA. They have their own fearsome pass rush, led by All-American A.J. Pena. Maine quarterback Carter Peevy will need to use his legs to move the chains and make plays in the red zone.

No. 17 South Dakota at No. 21 Southern Illinois

When South Dakota Has The Ball:

South Dakota	Southern Illinois
Scoring Offense (23 PPG, 6th in MVFC)	Scoring Defense (30.3 PPG, 7th in MVFC)
Total Offense (5.7 YPP, 5th)	Total Defense (6.5 YPP, 9th)
Rushing Offense (4.4 YPC, 6th)	Rushing Defense (6.1 YPC, 10th)
Passing Offense (7.7 YPA, T-3rd)	Passing Defense (7.2 YPA, 5th)
Sacks Allowed Per Game (2.0, 8th)	Sacks Per Game (1.5, 5th)
RZ TD% (50%, 10th)	RZ TD% Allowed (66.7%, 7th)

When Southern Illinois Has The Ball:

Southern Illinois	South Dakota
Scoring Offense (31.2 PPG, 4th in MVFC)	Scoring Defense (23.1 PPG, 4th in MVFC)
Total Offense (6.6 YPP, 3rd)	Total Defense (5.5 YPP, 3rd)
Rushing Offense (6.0 YPC, 1st)	Rushing Defense (4.6 YPC, 4th)
Passing Offense (7.2 YPA, 6th)	Passing Defense (6.6 YPA, 3rd)
Sacks Allowed Per Game (1.0, 2nd)	Sacks Per Game (1.4, 6th)
RZ TD% (65.2%, 6th)	RZ TD% Allowed (78.9%, 8th)

This game could come down to one major factor. Can a Southern Illinois defense that has been the worst rushing defense in the MVFC do anything to contain L.J. Phillips Jr. and South Dakota's rushing attack? This will become a huge problem if the Salukis need to commit numbers inside the box and expose the secondary to shots down the field from Aidan Bouman.

On the other side, DJ Williams and his rushing ability still lead one of the best offenses in the country. South Dakota doesn't have much of a pass rush, which means Williams should have time in the pocket to make plays. This game may come down to red zone execution and turnover margin. Neither team has been very efficient in the red zone on either side of the ball in conference play.

No. 19 Lamar at No. 15 Stephen F. Austin

When Lamar Has The Ball:

Lamar	Stephen F. Austin
Scoring Offense (25.3 PPG, 6th in SLC)	Scoring Defense (13.7 PPG, 2nd)
Total Offense (4.9 YPP, 8th)	Total Defense (3.9 YPP, 1st)
Rushing Offense (3.2 YPC, 8th)	Rushing Defense (1.7 YPC, 1st)
Passing Offense (7.6 YPA, 3rd)	Passing Defense (5.9 YPA, 2nd)
Sacks Allowed Per Game (2.7, 6th)	Sacks Per Game (4.2, 1st)
RZ TD% (60%, 5th)	RZ TD% Allowed (43.8%, 2nd)

When Stephen F. Austin Has The Ball:

Stephen F. Austin	Lamar
Scoring Offense (36.8 PPG, 2nd in SLC)	Scoring Defense (18.5 PPG, 4th in SLC)
Total Offense (5.5 YPP, 4th)	Total Defense (4.7 YPP, 3rd)
Rushing Offense (3.9 YPC, 5th)	Rushing Defense (3.5 YPC, 5th)
Passing Offense (7.4 YPA, 5th)	Passing Defense (6.2 YPA, 3rd)
Sacks Allowed Per Game (1.3, 2nd)	Sacks Per Game (2.7, 4th)
RZ TD% (70.4%, 2nd)	RZ TD% Allowed (50%, 4th)

Stephen F. Austin boasts the best defense in the Southland, and it is difficult to imagine this Lamar offense will find much success against it. Lamar will need to give its quarterback time to throw and try to take some shots down the field, as it is unlikely they will find any success on the ground.

Lamar's best chance to win this weekend following the same formula they used to beat Southeastern Louisiana last week. They need to drag this game into the mud defensively, force field goal attempts, and make this a very low-scoring game. Stephen F. Austin quarterback has missed time due to injury, but the Lumberjacks have not missed a beat with Gavin Rutherford.

No. 9 UC Davis at No. 3 Montana State

When UC Davis Has The Ball:

UC Davis	Montana State
Scoring Offense (34 PPG, 4th in Big Sky)	Scoring Defense (10.8 PPG, 1st in Big Sky)
Total Offense (7.0 YPP, 2nd)	Total Defense (4.2 YPP, 1st)
Rushing Offense (4.7 YPC, 5th)	Rushing Defense (3.2 YPC, 1st)
Passing Offense (10.0 YPA, 1st)	Passing Defense (5.0 YPA, 1st)
Sacks Allowed Per Game (2.3, 10th)	Sacks Per Game (1.0, 11th)
RZ TD% (68%, 5th)	RZ TD% Allowed (53.8%, 2nd)

When Montana State Has The Ball:

Montana State	UC Davis
Scoring Offense (49 PPG, 1st in Big Sky)	Scoring Defense (21.8 PPG, 2nd in Big Sky)
Total Offense (7.6 YPP, 1st)	Total Defense (5.7 YPP, 3rd)
Rushing Offense (6.3 YPC, 1st)	Rushing Defense (4.2 YPC, 4th)
Passing Offense (9.8 YPA, 2nd)	Passing Defense (7.1 YPA, 3rd)
Sacks Allowed Per Game (2.1, 8th)	Sacks Per Game (2.7, 3rd)
RZ TD% (80.6%, 1st)	RZ TD% Allowed (42.1%, 1st)

The success of the UC Davis offense in a hostile environment will determine how competitive this game will be on Saturday night. Montana State has been the defense in the Big Sky, and potentially the entire FCS, and has not shown many weaknesses since an early loss to South Dakota State. UC Davis may struggle to run the ball, which will put all the pressure on redshirt freshman Caden Pinnick to make all the big plays.

Pinnick should have time to throw; however, as good as Montana State has been in terms of pressure rate, the Bobcats have failed to produce a high number of sacks. The Bobcats only have six sacks in six conference games. Even with a lack of sacks, Montana State has arguably the best pass defense in the country despite not generating a ton of pressure. It is fair to point out that Montana State has not faced an elite passing attack like UC Davis, which ranks among the best in the conference.

On the other hand, this UC Davis defense has been better than people realize, although it is still a step behind Montana State's unit. Their raw numbers do not look great, but a significant portion of that is skewed by their pace of play offensively, which increases the number of plays they face defensively. The Aggies still have a Top 3 defense in the Big Sky in nearly every category.

Everything will start with UC Davis' ability to stop Montana State's rushing attack, which has hit its stride behind Julius Davis and Adam Jones. Justin Lamson has quietly been one of the best quarterbacks in the country. The Aggies' ability to keep this game close may hinge on their red zone execution. They have been incredible at keeping opposing offenses out of the end zone when they enter the red zone. It's going to be a matchup to watch because Montana State has been one of the best red zone offenses in the country.

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