How Many FCS Football Programs Are True National Title Contenders In 2025?

Fans across the country are always convinced their team is primed to compete for a national championship going into the season. The conversation always shifts to how many teams can realistically win the national title each season, and I find myself thinking that the pool of true contenders is smaller than many people want to believe.

It takes a truly special team to survive a deep, grueling run through the FCS Playoffs to win it all. There is a level of depth and program building necessary that most teams just don't have. I'm going to show how the historical data suggests that the number of title contenders fluctuates each season. Just because your favorite team made a semifinal run last year, doesn't mean next year's team is an automatic contender the next year (Ex, 2023 UAlbany).

The number of true contenders is dependent on how good the best team in the nation is each season. Some seasons, there is a team that is so dominant that there is really only one true contender in the entire subdivision.

In order to test this theory, I wanted to develop a measurable way to determine how many real contenders the FCS has had in each individual season since 1995.

The Method

To give this analysis a solid foundation, I started with power ratings. I know a lot of fans will hate that and yell about how math and numbers aren't real football, and while I mostly agree, there's no better place for us to start without any data from on-field performance. There are limited stats and data available for the FCS level, and it would surprise a lot of people to find that these numbers are very reliable.

A power rating uses several analytical and proven predictive metrics to assign overall strength to teams, informing us how good a team actually is. The ratings look past outlier performances and give you a good idea of how good teams actually are and how likely they are to perform. You can also pair these power ratings with win probability percentages. The most accessible power rating for the FCS can be found on the Massey database. I discussed earlier that the number of national title contenders is dependent on how good the best team in the country truly is.

To establish the original pool of teams, I took the highest-rated team in each season and only included teams that were within 6.5 points of them. The reason for this is that a team as a 6.5-point underdog has roughly a 30-35% chance of winning based on tons of historical data. You may think that's a fairly high chance, but remember, a contender must also be strong enough to win multiple games in a row, which all should be against other true contenders. If you need more evidence, no FCS team that was more than 6.5 points behind the top team in the Massey power rating has won a national championship from 1995-2024. The 2010 Eastern Washington team was the biggest outlier, sitting only five points behind the No. 1 team.

Before moving on, I wanted to note a few important things about this process. First, these power rating metrics are final season numbers and take into account playoff results. Also, due to the lack of data at the FCS level, the data set is limited and imperfect.

To help account for this, teams that fell outside the 6.5-point range that met two set criteria were included. Those outliers had to have won at least one playoff game. They also had to have played at least two games against teams from the contender list and had to win or be within 11 points in both games. This is because a team needed to show it could consistently compete with the top-tier teams over multiple games and not just have one outlier performance.

We included teams that were not eligible for the postseason to provide a complete overview of the best teams at the FCS level. This means all teams from the Ivy League, SWAC, and MEAC were included, but only one team from these conferences made the cut as true contenders.

Now that you know the method, we can look at the year-by-year results to see how many true national title contenders there were in the FCS since 1995.

The Contenders

(National Champions In Bold)

1995 (3) - Montana, McNeese, Marshall

1996 (2) - Marshall, Montana

1997 (6) - Montana, Delaware, McNeese, Youngstown State, Villanova, Eastern Washington

1998 (7) - Georgia Southern, Richmond, McNeese, UMass, UConn, Western Illinois, Northwestern State

1999 (1) - Georgia Southern

2000 (4) - Georgia Southern, Delaware, Montana, Appalachian State

2001 (5) - Furman, Georgia Southern, Montana, Appalachian State, Hofstra

2002 (5) - Georgia Southern, Western Kentucky, Montana, McNeese, Western Illinois

2003 (1) - Delaware

2004 (9) - Montana, Georgia Southern, Furman, James Madison, Southern Illinois, Eastern Washington, New Hampshire, Delaware, Harvard

2005 (11) - New Hampshire, Eastern Washington, Cal Poly, Appalachian State, Georgia Southern, Montana, Richmond, Texas State, Northern Iowa, Southern Illinois, Furman

2006 (6) - Appalachian State, James Madison, North Dakota State, UMass, Montana, Youngstown State

2007 (10) - Appalachian State, UMass, Northern Iowa, James Madison, North Dakota State, Eastern Washington, Delaware, Richmond, Southern Illinois, Wofford

2008 (6) - Richmond, James Madison, Montana, Northern Iowa, Appalachian State, Villanova

2009 (5) - Villanova, William & Mary, Richmond, Montana, Appalachian State

2010 (7) - Villanova, Delaware, William & Mary, New Hampshire, Appalachian State, Eastern Washington, Georgia Southern

2011 (4) - North Dakota State, Montana, Sam Houston, Georgia Southern

2012 (2) - North Dakota State, Sam Houston

2013 (1) - North Dakota State

2014 (3) - North Dakota State, Illinois State, Northern Iowa

2015 (2) - North Dakota State, Northern Iowa

2016 (3) - James Madison, North Dakota State, Eastern Washington

2017 (2) - North Dakota State, James Madison

2018 (1) - North Dakota State

2019 (2) - North Dakota State, James Madison

2020 (4) - North Dakota State, South Dakota State, James Madison, Sam Houston State

2021 (3) - North Dakota State, James Madison, South Dakota State

2022 (2) - South Dakota State, North Dakota State

2023 (1) - South Dakota State

2024 (4) - South Dakota State, North Dakota State, Montana State, South Dakota

Average Number of National Title Contenders: 4

*North Dakota State was not eligible for the playoffs in 2006-07
** 2004 Harvard was not eligible for the postseason due to the Ivy League
*** Shortened spring season

Takeways

The average number of true title contenders per season has decreased dramatically over the past 30 seasons. From 1995-2010, there was an average of 5.5 true national title contenders each season. Since 2011, that number has dropped to 2.3 if we exclude the shortened 2021 spring season.

You can blame realignment for this change, as teams like Georgia Southern, Appalachian State, James Madison, and others have moved to the FBS. It's also due to the dominance of North Dakota State, which has increased the level of production needed to be a true national title contender.

You can also identify the truly dominant teams of the last 30 years. Seasons that only feature one true title contender show the complete dominance of the teams at the top of the subdivision. There wasn't another team that could realistically compete with those teams in a playoff setting, which also played out on the field. The teams that fit this criteria are: 1999 Georgia Southern, 2003 Delaware, 2013 North Dakota State, 2018 North Dakota State, and 2023 South Dakota State.

In 2005, an unprecedented 11 teams were labeled as national title contenders, and that season lived up to the hype. All 11 teams made the postseason and played competitive games throughout the playoffs, with all but one quarterfinal game decided by a single score. Both semifinal games and the national championship game were decided by six points or less.

This further shows the dominance of the MVFC over the past 14 years. Since 2011, the MVFC has featured 22 national title contenders, while the rest of the country has had only 11 teams combined. Obviously, this is tied to the dominance of North Dakota State, but we've seen South Dakota State, South Dakota, Northern Iowa, and Illinois State all rise to the highest level of the subdivision.

Shockingly, the Big Sky, for all of its claims, has had two teams since 2011 that had a realistic chance at winning it all. The SoCon hasn't featured a true national title contender since Georgia Southern in 2011, after having at least one team qualify for contender status in almost every season from 1998 to 2010. The other two non-MVFC contenders were Sam Houston and James Madison, which have both moved on to the FBS level. It's been a challenge for programs outside of the MVFC to consistently produce teams that can compete at the top of the subdivision.

Teams That Just Missed The Cut

The following teams were one or two games away from being labeled as true national championship contenders:

2008 - Weber State, New Hampshire, Cal Poly

2012 - Georgia Southern

2013 - Eastern Illinois

2014 - South Dakota State

2016 - Youngstown State, South Dakota State

2021 - Montana State

2022 - Incarnate Word

Georgia Southern and Incarnate Word missed the cut because they did not play two teams that were contenders, but did play one-score games against one other contender. In fact, both teams made the trip to Fargo in the semifinals, but fell short of beating the Bison and making a run to the championship game. The key for a lot of these teams here is fantastic quarterback play that overcomes another major deficiency and raises the team to another level.

Who Are The Contenders In 2025?

This conversation is difficult because the formula uses data compiled throughout the season, which we obviously don't have right now. History and data trends tell us that there will be 2-3 true title contenders by the end of the season.

North Dakota State is the most likely contender with all its returning talent from last year's national championship team. To find the other contenders, it is helpful to look at where a program has been historically. Teams often don't break through after never being on the contender list. That means our most likely candidates are Montana State, South Dakota State, and South Dakota. I would lean toward Montana State and South Dakota State due to continuity along the lines of scrimmage. The interesting thing about these three top teams is that each will have to replace its starting quarterbacks, all of whom were All-American selections.

If we are hoping for a throwback season with 5-7 title contenders, the historical data shows that programs that have been extremely close in recent seasons are the most likely candidates to push into the top group of contenders. Unfortunately, that eliminates most of the SoCon and CAA, as none of those top teams have really pushed into the national title conversation in recent years.

Incarnate Word, UC Davis, and Montana would be the most likely candidates to fight their way into title conversations due to recent and/or historical success. Other teams like Tarleton State, Abilene Christian, Stephen F. Austin, and Rhode Island have a chance to be on the fringe, but lack the historical success that teams have needed to become true contenders. There have not been more than four true title contenders since 2011, which means one of these teams will most likely have to replace one of the top four from last season.

To summarize this project, here are the most likely tiers for potential contenders for next season's national championship.

Projected True Contenders: North Dakota State, Montana State, South Dakota State

Fringe Contenders: South Dakota, Incarnate Word, Montana, UC Davis

Potential Dark Horses: Tarleton State, Abilene Christian, Stephen F. Austin, Rhode Island

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