FCS Football Playoff Picture: Nov. 1 (Week 10)
After each week we will go conference by conference and look at which teams should be considered locks, contenders, or have work to do. 24 teams will make the 2023 FCS playoffs with 10 automatic bids (conference winners) and 14 At-large bids.
Teams that are “Locks” are teams that have clinched an auto bid or have a strong enough resume to earn an at-large bid. “Should Be In” teams are on track to be in the playoffs but must avoid slip-ups and “Work to Do” teams still need stronger resumes to have a shot at the playoffs. 42 teams are mentioned in this week's playoff picture, but only 24 will get in later this season.
Below is a breakdown of the playoff picture conference by conference.
Big Sky
Locks: Montana State, Idaho, Montana
Idaho won a massive game over Montana State this weekend, which propels the Vandals to “Lock” status. Idaho finishes the season with the easiest schedule of the top Big Sky teams making them a favorite to win the conference and earn the No. 2 overall seed. Montana still controls their own destiny for the Big Sky championship and the No. 2 overall seed. The Grizzlies have a tough schedule with Sacramento State and Montana State in the last three games. Montana State could potentially still earn a top-four seed if the Bobcats win out.
Should be in: Sacramento State
Sacramento State has an impressive Power-Five win over Stanford that propels this team to the "Should Be In" tier. The Hornets have only lost to Montana State and Idaho while adding an impressive 51-16 win this weekend over a feisty Idaho State team. If Sacramento State can win one of the final three games, it should be enough to earn an at-large bid and a potential win against Montana gives the Hornets a shot to earn a top-four seed.
Work to Do: Portland State, UC Davis
Eastern Washington and Idaho State were eliminated from playoff contention with losses this weekend. Portland State remains alive with a 4-4 record and only two losses against the FCS. A 27th-ranked strength of schedule helps Portland State, but the Vikings will need to keep adding wins to their resume. A game this weekend against UC Davis will potentially be an elimination game as each team has four losses. UC Davis lost a tough road game at Northern Arizona this weekend and has no more room for error. The Aggies need to win out to stay in playoff contention, but it will still be a long shot for the Aggies.
Big South – OVC
Locks: None
Should be in: None
Work to do: SEMO, UT Martin, Tennessee State, Gardner-Webb
The Big South-OVC title race will be one of the tightest in the FCS over the final three weeks of the season. After Gardner-Webb defeated UT Martin this weekend, all four of these teams have a chance to win the conference and earn the auto-bid. Right now, SEMO has the advantage with a 3-0 conference record. The Redhawks control their own destiny and can earn the auto bid by winning out, but SEMO does have the toughest remaining game of the group with an upcoming road game at UT Martin. Gardner-Webb and Tennessee State do not have any games left against the other top teams. Both teams have a conference record of 2-1, but if the Runnin’ Bulldogs and Tigers were to win out and UT Martin defeats SEMO, all four of these teams could finish with a 5-1 conference record. The tie-breaker, according to the conference website, would be each team’s record against all common opponents in the league.
Gardner-Web has the best chance of earning an at-large bid. The Runnin’ Bulldogs have the 30th-ranked strength of schedule and wins over Elon and Eastern Kentucky.
CAA
Locks: None
Should be in: Delaware
Delaware stands alone atop the CAA standings after nine weeks. The Blue Hens are undefeated against FCS competition and Delaware is very close to “Lock” status. The only concern is a tough remaining schedule, featuring three games against teams in playoff contention. A win against Elon next week will secure Delaware's spot in the postseason.
Work to do: Villanova, UAlbany, Richmond, William & Mary, Elon, Rhode Island, New Hampshire, Campbell
The CAA is still wide open and there are multiple teams with decent resumes that could separate themselves in the coming weeks. All seven of these teams still need to win most of the remaining games to earn an at-large bid. The conference will only receive three or four bids maximum, which gives each conference game going forward huge implications.
Villanova has a solid resume with only one loss against FCS competition. The Wildcats have three tough games remaining but can still win the conference. Villanova would move up to the “Should be in” tier with a win this weekend. UAlbany also only has one loss against FCS competition and has a win over Villanova. The Great Danes can secure a spot in the “Should be in” tier with a win over William & Mary this weekend. William & Mary escaped with a much-needed victory this weekend against Monmouth that stopped a slide of three straight losses. The Tribe still lacks a signature win but has an opportunity to strengthen its resume as wins over UAlbany or Richmond could be enough to sneak into the postseason. Richmond and Rhode Island each won crucial games last weekend to keep playoff hopes alive. Both teams lack signature wins and need to win as many games as possible down the stretch. Elon, Campbell, and New Hampshire all need to win out at this point to make the playoffs.
MVFC
Locks: South Dakota State
South Dakota State has the most impressive win of the season, which is an early season win over Montana State. South Dakota State has been dominant throughout conference play and is the clear favorite to earn the No. 1 overall seed. The Jackrabbits dominated another ranked opponent last weekend with a 37-3 road win over South Dakota.
Should be in: South Dakota, Southern Illinois
South Dakota’s hype took a hit after a blowout to in-state rival South Dakota State in Week 9. The Coyotes will have a chance to regain momentum in a huge matchup against Southern Illinois in Week 10. South Dakota still has a great resume with a 6-1 record against the FCS and wins over North Dakota State and Youngstown State. The Coyotes still need one more win to feel safe about the postseason. Southern Illinois remains in the “Should be in” tier even after trouncing Western Illinois in Week 9. If the Salukis can win one of the next two games against South Dakota or North Dakota State, this team should be a lock for an at-large bid. The Salukis have an FBS win over Northern Illinois and solid wins over Austin Peay and SEMO.
Work to do: Youngstown State, Northern Iowa, North Dakota State, North Dakota, Illinois State
It is very possible that the MVFC will finish with seven teams with a record of 7-4 or better. It is hard to see the conference getting more than six teams into postseason play, which means one of these teams will be left out of the bracket. Northern Iowa has the No. 1 strength of schedule in the country and has two remaining games against the bottom of the conference. The Panthers also own wins over Youngstown State, North Dakota, and Illinois State. Youngstown State has the No. 13 strength of schedule and impressive wins over Southern Illinois and Illinois State on the resume. North Dakota has a big win over North Dakota State, but the Fighting Hawks are lacking a second signature win. North Dakota needs two more wins to feel confident about making the playoffs. North Dakota State somehow finds itself in one of the worst positions of the group in terms of current resume. The Bison lack a win against the top conference, but the good news for Bison fans is this team will have three more shots to earn a signature win this season. Illinois State is hanging on by a thread after taking another loss in Week 9.
NEC
Locks: None
Should be in: None
Work to do: Duquesne, Merrimack
Duquesne picked up another solid win in Week 9 with a 27-0 win over Sacred Heart. The Dukes are 4-0 in conference play and have already defeated one of the top teams in the conference. Merrimack’s chances took a blow in Week 9 after losing a close game to Saint Francis. The Warriors must win their two final conference games, which would include a win over Duquesne in the final week. Duquesne will clinch the NEC auto-bid with two wins or a Merrimack loss. The NEC will not have an at-large bid this season.
Patriot
Locks: None
Should be in: Lafayette
Lafayette took control of the conference after back-to-back wins over Holy Cross and Georgetown. The Leopards have a two-game lead over the rest of the conference and would need to lose two of their final three games to lose the auto-bid. Two wins in the final three games will clinch the auto bid for the Leopards.
Work to do: Holy Cross, Fordham
Holy Cross picked up a huge win over Fordham last weekend despite being without quarterback Matthew Sluka. The Crusaders are starting to build momentum, but still need a lot of help to win the conference. The best chance Holy Cross has is to win out, including an FBS win over Army. The Crusaders need Sluka to get healthy, win out, and hope that it is enough to earn an at-large bid. Fordham’s chances are now extremely low. The Rams will need to win the conference and earn the auto-bid to get in and that will require beating Lafayette in two weeks while hoping the Leopards lose one more game. The Rams would also need Holy Cross to lose another conference game as well.
Pioneer
Locks: None
Should be in: None
Work to do: Davidson, Drake
This is another conference that will not earn an at-large bid. Right now, Davidson and Drake are tied for the conference lead at 5-0. The Wildcats and the Bulldogs do not play each other but Davidson currently has the advantage. The tie-breaker rules in the PFL will compare the record of Drake and Davidson against a common opponent highest in the standings. Right now, that opponent looks to be Butler. Davidson has already beaten Butler while Drake will play Butler at the end of the year. If Drake can win that game, the tie-breaker will extend further down the criteria and it is not clear enough to tell who would have the advantage yet.
SoCon
Locks: Furman
Furman has a chance to win the SoCon championship and clinch the auto-bid this weekend as the Paladins travel to Chattanooga. Even with a loss, Furman will be heavily favored over VMI and Wofford with a chance to lock up the conference in both of those games.
Should be in: Western Carolina
Western Carolina lost another disappointing game in Week 9 to Mercer. The Catamounts are starting to make their “Should be in” status look shaky but do play the bottom of the SoCon over the next three weeks. As long as Western Carolina wins the final three games, the Catamounts will earn an at-large bid.
Work to do: Chattanooga, Mercer
Chattanooga has a chance to win the SoCon this weekend with an upset against Furman. The Mocs only have two games remaining, including an FBS matchup against Alabama. If Chattanooga loses both games, there will be a major question about if the Mocs have the resume to earn an at-large bid. Last season will not give the Mocs confidence after finishing the year 7-4 with almost an identical resume to this season. Mercer’s resume received a huge boost after a win over Western Carolina. The Bears finally have a signature win but still need to win their final two games to secure an at-large bid. Samford is officially eliminated because the Bulldogs have failed to win any signature games and the bubble is too tight to keep this team in the conversation with a No. 70 strength of schedule.
Southland
Locks: None
Should be in: Incarnate Word
Incarnate Word won a big conference matchup over Lamar last weekend. The Cardinals enter another important matchup against Nicholls, another undefeated team in the conference. The Southland will not receive an at-large bid and if the Cardinals were to not win the conference. Incarnate Word does not have a strong non-conference resume, but I do expect this team to win the conference and be the lone representative of the Southland.
UAC
Locks: None
Should be in: None
Work to do: Austin Peay, Central Arkansas, Eastern Kentucky
Central Arkansas lost a conference game against Tarleton State and dropped down to the “Work To Do” tier. The Bears still control their own destiny in the conference, but now need to win both games against Austin Peay and Eastern Kentucky. Austin Peay and Eastern Kentucky both picked up wins in Week 9 and remain undefeated in league play. That will not be the case after Week 10 when Austin Peay travels to Eastern Kentucky in one of the best FCS games of the week. The winner will take total control of the conference and will be the favorite to earn the auto-bid. If the winner of Saturday’s game can also beat Central Arkansas, they will clinch the auto-bid. Central Arkansas and Austin Peay have the best chance to earn an at-large bid. Central Arkansas' out-of-conference win over SEMO could be the difference. Neither team would feel safe without the auto-bid.
***Tarleton State is not eligible for the 2023 FCS Playoffs because of the NCAA transition rule.
Note: North Carolina Central is projected to win the MEAC and would not be eligible for the FCS playoffs. If the Eagles lose one MEAC game and become eligible, North Carolina Central would enter the “Should be in” tier. Florida A&M clinched the SWAC East and a berth to the SWAC championship game this weekend, which eliminates the Rattlers from playoff consideration.
