Way-Too-Early Look At The FCS Football Playoff Picture

A look at the FCS Playoff bubble in early October? I know what you're thinking, it sounds crazy.

Before we keep going, I think it's important to mention that the playoffs aren't the only thing that matters. Every game matters a lot to programs around the country. Conference championships and local rivalries are still some of the most important things in college football.

However, the ultimate goal is to qualify for the FCS Playoffs and compete for a national championship. And so, even though it's only October, it's time to take a look at the at-large bubble with multiple games having massive playoff implications this weekend.

With the Ivy League joining the playoffs in 2025, only 11 automatic bids, along with 13 automatic bids, will be available for teams to fight for. If you go conference by conference and eliminate auto-bids, I calculated about 30 teams that still have at-large bid hopes this season.

For the most part, I expect teams will have to win eight games to even be considered for an at-large spot. There may be a few chaos scenarios where a 7-win MVFC, Big Sky, or UAC team has an outside shot at getting in, but they certainly won't feel safe on Selection Sunday. In certain conferences with lower strength of schedules (SOS), you may need to find a way to get nine or more wins.

In the next section, we examine potential multi-bid conferences and identify which teams have a realistic chance of securing an at-large bid, what they will need to do to secure their spot, and the biggest upcoming games. We will end with some chaos "bubble-shrinking" scenarios that could really shake things up this season.

Big Sky

We are going to set aside Montana State and Montana for this conversation. It's safe to say both of these teams will qualify for the playoffs, barring an absolute epic collapse, and will be in conversations for a Top 8 seed. On the other hand, Cal Poly, Northern Colorado, Sacramento State, Weber State, and Idaho State may mathematically be alive, but they all have to nearly win out to secure a spot in the field.

Let's take a closer look at UC Davis, Northern Arizona, and Idaho. These are the teams that will determine whether the Big Sky is a 3-, 4-, or 5-bid league, all of which are possibilities. All three of these teams would feel confident getting in with eight wins. Idaho is in the toughest spot at 2-3. None of the losses are bad losses, but to feel safe, the Vandals will likely need to finish the season 6-1 in their remaining games. With a smaller bubble, I don't think anyone will be comfortable at 7-5 with only one ranked win. This means Idaho will most likely need to beat either UC Davis or Northern Arizona (or both) later this month.

UC Davis is in a good spot with a 4-1 record (4-0 vs FCS). However, because of the Week 0 debacle against Mercer, the Aggies only played 11 games. The Aggies play NAU this week, a feisty Northern Colorado team, a dangerous Idaho State team, and finish with Idaho, Montana State, and Sacramento State. They need to go 4-2 in that stretch to feel comfortable. NAU may have the easiest path, but will still need to win four of its remaining games, including matchups against UC Davis, Idaho State, and Idaho. Neither UC Davis nor Northern Arizona plays Montana this season, a huge benefit for this conversation.

CAA

We know that with unbalanced schedules, several CAA teams have a chance to finish with eight or nine wins. The teams most likely to be in the conversation are Elon, Rhode Island, Monmouth, and Villanova. New Hampshire, Stony Brook, and Towson have an outside shot, but have tough schedules down the stretch.

Monmouth feels like the safest pick here because after playing Towson and Stony Brook, the Hawks play four of the worst teams in the conference. Villanova is in pretty good shape after a big win over New Hampshire, but still plays three top-tier CAA teams and needs to win two out of those three games to feel comfortable. Rhode Island and Elon play each other in November, which could be an elimination game. The CAA is likely to receive a total of 2-4 bids, with 3 being the most likely scenario, depending on how these games unfold.

MVFC

Similar to the top teams in the Big Sky, we will assume that North Dakota State and South Dakota State are locks. This leaves us with Southern Illinois, North Dakota, Youngstown State, Illinois State, and South Dakota fighting for 3, maybe 4, spots in the field. Before jumping into this conversation, every team on the bubble has to take care of UNI, Indiana State, and Murray State. A loss to one of those teams probably eliminates that team.

South Dakota has the toughest path, needing to finish at least 5-1 over the final six games, including games against Illinois State, North Dakota, South Dakota State, and Southern Illinois. The Coyotes need at least three wins in that stretch. Youngstown State faces North Dakota this week, along with matchups against NDSU, Illinois State, and Southern Illinois remaining. They'll need to go 2-2 in those games, but three of them are on the road.

North Dakota will most likely need to win three of these five games against Youngstown State, Southern Illinois, South Dakota, NDSU, and SDSU. The YSU-UND game is this weekend and could serve as a potential elimination game. Illinois State only needs to win two of YSU, USD, SDSU, and SIU. All of these paths to the postseason are brutal, and it's going to take some exceptional football in the MVFC to earn an at-large bid. There is a chance a seven-win Valley team can get in, but certainly not without some help.

OVC-Big South

This conference appears to be a one-bid league at the moment. Tennessee Tech appears to be a threat to win 11 games and could push for a top-8 seed in the playoffs. The only at-large bid scenario would be a nine-win Gardner-Webb or Eastern Illinois. The chaos scenario would be if Tennessee Tech fails to win the auto bid, but still wins 10 games. That could shrink the bubble because the Golden Eagles would take away an at-large bid.

SoCon

The SoCon was a one-bid league last season, and that seems to be the most likely scenario once again after several out-of-conference failures this year. The three most likely candidates to win the league are Mercer, Furman, and Western Carolina. The Citadel may have an outside shot, but would need to win out and need some help. Any at-large candidate will almost certainly need to get to 7-1 in conference play.

Mercer may not have a great at-large case because in that scenario, the Bears would be 8-3 without a signature win. Unless the committee considers Braden Atkinson that big of a deal and overlooks the loss to Presbyterian without him, I don't think it's likely. Furman's best case for an at-large bid would be finishing 9-3 with its best wins being William & Mary and Mercer/Western Carolina.

The Catamounts are the most interesting team to watch here. They are 3-3 overall, but 3-0 since the return of Taron Dickens. I still think WCU needs to get to 8-4, and they still wouldn't be a lock then. The signature wins are lacking. All three SoCon teams should be rooting hard for Presbyterian to finish 12-0 and win the Pioneer League.

Southland

It feels like there are only three teams in the Southland with realistic playoff chances after Incarnate Word dropped to 2-4. Even an 8-4 UIW team would need massive help from other bubble teams to have a shot. Stephen F. Austin and Southeastern Louisiana are in pretty good positions right now. Both are 4-2 overall, 2-0 in SLC play, and they don't play each other. They should be favorites in their remaining games, giving them both a chance to secure their spot in the field. SFA can't afford to falter because, at 8-4, they would only have seven Division I wins.

Lamar is also still alive at 4-1 overall (4-0 vs FCS), including a win over South Dakota. They do, however, play UIW, SLU, and SFA in consecutive weeks later this season and probably need to win at least one of those games. It's possible that the Southland will have an argument for three teams to make the playoffs, but I think two bids are the most likely outcome.

UAC

The UAC may be the third-best conference in the FCS this season, giving them a chance to get three bids. The one disappointment is that one of the best teams in this conference, West Georgia, isn't eligible for the postseason. Eastern Kentucky is a long shot, but needs to finish the season 6-1 down the stretch, and the Colonels still have to play the three best teams in the conference.

Tarleton State, Austin Peay, and Abilene Christian have the best chance for the postseason. All three are in a good spot right now, especially Tarleton State at 6-0 with an FBS win, probably only needing three more wins to secure its spot. Austin Peay picked up a big win over West Georgia last week and already has a 20-point FBS win on its resume. Abilene Christian is 3-3, but two of those losses are against FBS opponents, and they have two ranked wins over Austin Peay and Stephen F. Austin.

Austin Peay's path is pretty clear. The Govs played four games against the bottom of the conference, along with Samford, before a season-ending game against Tarleton State. They will likely only need to finish 4-2 in that stretch to feel good about their chances. Abilene Christian's path is much more difficult with games against West Georgia and Tarleton State still remaining. Southern Utah and Eastern Kentucky could also be trap games. To lock in their spot, ACU needs to go 5-1 in that stretch, maybe 4-2, because they are one of the few teams that might have the resume to get in with seven wins. They are projected to have a Top 10 SOS and multiple ranked wins on their resume. I would lean towards a 7-win ACU over a 7-win Idaho or Youngstown State.

Chaos "Bubble-Shrinking" Scenarios

Now, let's look at some scenarios that bubble teams need to pay very close attention to. It starts this week with Jackson State vs Alabama State. If the Hornets were to win, Jackson State would likely be eligible for the playoffs. The Tigers will be massive favorites in their remaining games and have an excellent chance to finish 10-2. At that point, I think it's very likely that a 10-2 Jackson State gets in.

Another bubble-shrinking scenario is if Lehigh does not win the Patriot League but still wins 10-11 games. That would result in the Patriot League receiving two bids. The Pioneer League could also cause chaos. What happens if Butler runs the table and Presbyterian finishes 11-1? The Blue Hose would have 9 Division I wins, including two wins over top SoCon teams, but their SOS would be the lowest among bubble teams. They would have to get consideration for an at-large bid.

The final chaos scenario involves the Ivy League. Currently, Harvard appears to be the dominant team in the conference, but history suggests that it's extremely challenging to go undefeated in Ivy League play. What if Penn or Yale wins the auto bid, but Harvard finishes 9-1? We don't know how the committee will treat the Ivy League, but nine wins in 10 games will certainly make a compelling case.

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