Best & Worst-Case Scenario for the Florida Gators on Selection Sunday

There will be no nail-biting for the Florida Gators on Selection Sunday as the SEC regular-season champions will be one of the highest-seeded teams in the NCAA Tournament despite not winning the conference's tournament.

However, Florida will have to wait to see which seed it receives and where it will play after falling short in the SEC Tournament with Saturday's loss to Vanderbilt.

As a result, Florida Gators on SI lists the Gators' best-case scenario and worst-case scenario on Selection Sunday. The official bracket will be released during the 2026 Men’s NCAA Tournament Selection Sunday Show at 6 p.m. ET on CBS.

Best-Case Scenario: No. 1 Seed, South Region

Florida's 11-game winning streak to end the regular season put the Gators as the favorites to clinch the fourth and final one-seed behind Duke, Michigan and Arizona. Despite its performance in the SEC Tournament, the Gators are still a strong favorite.

After the loss to Vanderbilt, head coach Todd Golden cited Florida being ranked higher than other contenders, such as UConn and Houston, in all the relevant polls and ratings, such as the KenPom (fourth), NET (fourth) and Torvik (fourth).

"We haven't lost in 54 days or something leading up to this game, playing some of the best basketball in America," Golden said. "I do believe we've done enough to be the fourth 1 seed. But we'll find out tomorrow night."

The Florida Gators enter the postseason as the favorite to clinch a one-seed in the NCAA Tournament. — The Florida Gators' performance in the regular season should be enough to clinch a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. | Kyle Lander / Florida Gators on SI

ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi, meanwhile, kept Florida as a one-seed after the loss and before UConn and Houston played in their respective conference tournament title games due to the Gators' overall dominance in SEC play and the proximity to Selection Sunday.

"The committee over the years, for all the slings and arrows they take, they’re very good at not overreacting to a single result," he said on ESPN shortly after Florida's loss. "And that’s what we’re often guilty of, the folks in our seats. I think they’re gonna end up keeping Florida right where they are.”

It also helped that UConn was upset by St. John's in the Big East Tournament Final, while Houston was blown out by Arizona in the Big 12 Tournament Final.

Should Florida officially clinch a No. 1 seed, it would mark the first time in program history that the Gators have a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament in back-to-back seasons. The only downside to this scenario is Houston is likely the two-seed in a region where the region final is played in Houston.

Worst-Case Scenario: No. 2 Seed, South Region

While this is a worst-case scenario, it is also an unlikely scenario. UConn and St. John's losing in their respective conference tournament finals essentially negated Florida's loss in the SEC Tournament, even if the Gators failed to make the championship game.

Had Houston, who ranks immediately behind Florida in the KenPom and NET, upset AP No. 2 Arizona, it may have been enough to lap Florida.

Meanwhile, UConn does have a head-to-head victory over Florida with a 77-73 win in New York City on Dec. 9. However, Florida's impressive turnaround during SEC play, as well as the Huskies' losses to Marquette (March 7), Creighton (Feb. 6) and St. John's (Feb. 6, Saturday), have kept UConn slightly behind the Gators despite the head-to-head advantage.

UConn Huskies owns a head-to-head victory over Florida with a 77-73 win in New York on Dec. 9. | Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images

That's what Lunardi, argued, at least, before keeping Florida ahead of UConn in his latest bracketology.

"Florida was the outright champion of a far stronger league," Lunardi said. "UConn finished second in a far weaker league. I know the UConn and Big East people won’t want to hear that, but I fully expect that Florida is going to be the No. 1 seed in the South [Sunday] night."

Nonetheless, if the selection committee shocks the college basketball world and ultimately flips Florida from a one-seed to a two-seed in the same region, it should not make too much of a difference for the Gators' chances to repeat as national champions.