Key Matchups That Will Determine Florida vs. LSU

Photo: Gervon Dexter; Credit: Alex Shepherd

Florida has maxed out as a three-point favorite over LSU this week, and one must keep in mind that home teams are traditionally awarded three points by oddsmakers considering the hostile environment its fanbase creates.

The Gators and Tigers are basically viewed as even squads entering their Week 7 rivalry matchup in Gainesville, and for good reason.

Both programs have a first-year SEC head coach leading the charge — Billy Napier for Florida and Brian Kelly for LSU, each team is 4-2, each offense relies on its rushing attack and each defense has improved from a year ago but remains a work in progress when it comes to giving up chunk yardage.

This game is going to come down to the wire, as Florida vs. LSU tends to do. Below are the three key matchups that will determine the outcome.

Florida's defensive front vs. LSU QB Jayden Daniels

This feels like the most crucial matchup of the game for Florida. The Gators have struggled with quarterbacks who pose a threat with their legs all season long, and LSU's Jayden Daniels is the most dynamic one they'll have faced through seven games this year.

Traditional stats suggest Daniels is rushing for 4.7 yards per attempt with 359 yards in six games. The yardage lost from the 21 sacks he's taken (keep that number in mind as a potential advantage for UF's pass rush) factors into that stat. Daniels has averaged 8.1 yards per attempt for 456 yards without including sacks, with 4.68 yards coming after contact and 17 missed tackles forced (2.83 per game) through six games, per Pro Football Focus.

For comparison, if you'll remember former Florida running back Dameon Pierce who avoided tackles with ease in 2021, averaged 3.65 yards after contact and posted 39 forced missed tackles in 13 games (three per game) last season, per PFF.

Daniels has been limited to the short field as a passer — he's posted an 80.3 completion percentage on throws behind the line of scrimmage up to nine yards downfield, compared to 47.9 percent on throws of 10+ yards — but his mobility allows LSU to extend drives. If Florida can't find a way to limit Daniels on the ground, the Gators could be in serious trouble.

It was encouraging to see the Gators' defense make its presence known against Missouri this past Saturday with four sacks and 13 tackles for loss, but the last Tigers passer, Brady Cook, isn't the mover that Daniels is.

Not only will Gervon Dexter and the interior defensive line rotation need to once again cripple the pocket, but edge rusher Brenton Cox and defensive ends Princely Umanmielen and Justus Boone will have to contain Daniels should he attempt to flee under interior pressure.

The unit will need to build upon last week's performance and display great gap discipline while pass-rushing, preventing Daniels from breaking the pocket to make yardage on his own. If the defensive linemen and edge rushers can do so, Daniels' sack count suddenly becomes an encouraging thing to think about.

UF's offensive efficiency vs. LSU's critical down defense

In what everyone expects to be a close game, UF will need to be efficient. We highlighted this in the Gators' X-Factor of the week, the red zone offense, but Florida will obviously need to march down the field to get there in the first place.

The Gators can't afford to waste their early downs offensively and will need to improve their third-down conversion rate, which sits at 39.7 percent on the year. The Tigers won't make that easy, allowing opposing offenses to convert just 37 percent of the time, even limiting the high-powered Tennessee offense to a 43.8 percent rate.

While LSU's defense is stout on third down, however, it struggles on fourth down, having allowed offenses to convert on half of their ten tries this season. UF is particularly strong on fourth down, converting 69.2 percent of the time on 13 attempts.

Scared money don't make money, right? This is the game to prove it.

If fourth-and-manageable is there for the taking because the Gators came up short on third, expect Napier to be aggressive. Especially if Florida is outside of Adam Mihalek's recalculated field goal range, something the team is actively determining according to Napier after Mihalek missed numerous long field goals over the last couple of weeks.

"I think just basically you need to adjust your strategy once the kicker proves that maybe he’s not effective at those distances if that makes sense," Napier said on Wednesday. "The numbers and all that contribute — once a kicker has a track record then it’s much easier to adjust your strategy.”

This sounds like a hint that Florida will take chances in situations such as fourth and short on LSU's side of the field, but at a yardage mark where Mihalek hasn't proven to be consistent.

In an ideal world, Florida will make the most of its early downs to avoid any stress on third. But if the Gators find themselves in need of all four downs to keep the ball moving, the matchup is in their favor for Napier to take calculated risks.

Gators' rushing attack vs. Tigers' rushing defense

Florida has two of the SEC's top three running backs in yards per carry on its roster in Montrell Johnson and Trevor Etienne, not to mention an incredibly athletic quarterback in Anthony Richardson if you weren't aware of that already. The trio is combining to average 159.5 rushing yards per game on 23.1 attempts per game, equating to 6.9 yards per attempt anytime one of them rushes the ball.

No team has proven capable of slowing down the Gators' rushing attack this season, rather, at times UF has just had to move away from running the ball as a result of the numbers on the scoreboard. Our previous matchup highlighted the importance of offensive efficiency, and to this point, that matchup will specifically be critical in order to prevent LSU from building a lead.

The Gators need to run the ball, chew away at the clock to leave the Tigers' offense on the sideline and keep control of the game in their hands. Florida has proven rushing commodities at its disposal and must lean on them in one of the most important games on the schedule.

Again, the Tigers won't make this easy. They rank No. 6 in the conference for allowing 134.8 yards per game and No. 5 for giving up 3.9 yards per attempt.

Freshman linebacker Harold Perkins has emerged as a dominant run stopper with nine "stops" on 45 run defense snaps per Pro Football Focus, pairing well with a deep LSU defensive line that features starters, led by edge rusher BJ Ojulari and lineman Mekhi Wingo, averaging run-stopping tackles just 2.34 yards away from the line of scrimmage this season.

This makes the potential absence of Gators guard O'Cyrus Torrence, who is questionable with a lower-body injury, extremely significant.

Florida has rushed well against teams hovering around LSU's quality in terms of run defense, as Missouri allows 138.3 yards per game (UF posted 231 yards against UM in Week 6), Kentucky allows 133 (136 yards in Week 2), and Tennessee allows 89.4 (141 yards in Week 4). But Torrence, UF's lone Preseason All-American, was available in those matchups.

If he isn't able to go on Saturday, this matchup could lean LSU's way as it will be a true test of the team's strengths. If Torrence can play, however, Florida needs to commit to its strength, one that hasn't let the Gators down yet this season.

Stay tuned to All Gators for continuous coverage of Florida Gators football, basketball and recruiting. Follow along on social media at @AllGatorsOnFN on Twitter and All Gators on FanNation-Sports Illustrated on Facebook.

Get your Gators football, basketball and other sporting events tickets from SI Tickets here.

Add us as a preferred source on Google