Game Preview: Florida State Seminoles vs. Lipscomb Bisons

It's the last non-conference game of the year for Florida State, and the middle of a 7-game homestand, as Lipscomb comes to town. It's the 4th ever matchup between these two, but just the second since color television was invented, as the two played in 2021.

This will likely not be a heavily attended game, taking place just a few hours before the football team kicks off the Orange Bowl in South Florida, and the majority of the students still home for the holidays. It's a noon EST tip on ESPN+/ACCNX, in the Donald L Tucker Center in Tallahassee, Florida.

Lipscomb Bisons Breakdown (8-6)

Lipscomb is in its fifth season under head coach Lennie Acuff, his first Division 1 program. He'd been a long-time head coach at Division 2 Alabama-Huntsville beforehand, where he made numerous Sweet 16s and an Elite Eights. His current tenure at Lipscomb has been average at best, with a combined record of 73-66.

They've been hit by the injury bug early on this season, with arguably their two best players missing time this season. All-ASUN Team Preseason selection Jacob Ognacevic hasn't played yet this season with a knee injury, and Derrin Boyd, their leading scorer so far this season, has missed most of December with a thumb injury, and was initially believed to miss the rest of their non-conference play. Ognacevic led the team in scoring in 2022-23, so they're currently missing two different players who have averaged 17+ PPG in a season.

If those two continue to sit out, the three main players to watch are Will Pruitt (12.1 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 3.5 APG), Owen McCormack (9.4 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 13 points, and 12 rebounds against Arkansas), and AJ McGinnis (11.9 PPG, 2.6 RPG, 5.9 3PA per game). Pruitt has averaged close to 16 PPG in the last three games, stepping up his production in Boyd's absence.

Joe Anderson has also really stepped up, scoring 15 points against Tennessee Tech and 11 against Arkansas, much higher than his 6.3 PPG average for the season.

As a team, they're going to make 9-10 threes per game, shoot them at a 34% clip on the backs of McGinnis, McCormack, Anderson, and TJ Johnson (34.9% on 3.1 3PA), and be an efficient scoring team overall. They shoot 47.6% from the floor, which is in the top 70 nationally, while also scoring an average of 80.2 PPG. In their games against top-100 KenPom teams (which Florida State currently is), they scored 70 against Drake, 66 against Arkansas, and just 57 against UCF.

Florida State Seminoles Breakdown (6-5)

It has been a much-needed time away for the team, as they were able to go home and spend time with their families, taking a break from an underwhelming and taxing mental stretch. Two blown double-digit leads to Georgia and UNC, demoralizing losses to USF and SMU, and two closer-than-needed wins against UNF and Winthrop left the team with a lot to be desired. Hopefully being home for the holidays resets their focus.

The biggest goal for Florida State has to be finding ways for Primo Spears to be more efficient. He's taken 33 total shots in three games and made 7 of them. Luckily, he's been able to get to the free throw line where he's 17/19, but they have to find a way for him to not be shooting 21.2% from the floor. At least he's willing to take the shots, something the rest of the team hasn't done recently, and it's not even like he's taking a lot of bad shots, he just hasn't been making them. Find ways to make his looks a little easier.

Darin Green Jr also has to be better going forward. Three of his last four games have seen him shoot below 40% from the field (outside of a phenomenal performance against UNF), including shooting just 5/18 from 3 against USF, SMU, and Winthrop. Teams are starting to learn they can be physical with him, and it's hard for him to get off clean looks without elite playmaking around him.

Last game was a free-throw-filled mess, with Florida State shooting its most free throws since 2014, and shooting twice as many free throws as their season average. Unless FSU has made a major change in its offensive philosophy, it's not sustainable whatsoever. They're going to have to find ways to garner some easy offense as we head into conference play.

Injury Report

Cam Corhen is doubtful to play with a fractured toe. I think he'll be back early in ACC play.

Cam'Ron Fletcher is out for the season with a knee injury.

For Lipscomb, leading scorer Derrin Boyd is doubtful to play with a thumb injury. He was originally expected to be out for the entirety of non-conference play.

Jacob Ognacevic, who was a unanimous preseason All-ASUN selection, is sidelined indefinitely with a knee injury.

Projected Starters

Florida State

G: Jalen Warley

G: Darin Green Jr

F: Jamir Watkins

F: Baba Miller

F: De'Ante Green

Lipscomb

G: Joe Anderson

G: Will Pruitt

G: AJ McGinnis

F: Owen McCormack

F: Grant Asman

Keys to the Game

Defend Without Fouling

This has been a key for most of the season, and likely will continue to be one, no matter who Florida State is playing. Lipscomb is not a team that hunts opportunities to get to the free throw line, and are in the bottom-75 nationally in free throw rate of 27.6, only attempting about 17 free throws per game.

It's no secret that Florida State struggles to not foul, allowing one of the highest free throw rates in the country. You lose games by allowing teams to live outside the norm, and that would mean Lipscomb getting to the free throw line more than they're used to. When Lipscomb has been above their average free throw rate, they're 6-1, and 2-5 when they're below it, with the two wins against a really bad Tennessee Tech team and NAIA Bryan University. Keep them under their mark.

Steals

Florida State has been one of the best teams in the country at forcing steals, while Lipscomb has been one of the best at limiting them, keeping all turnovers as the dead-ball variety. This is more of a curiosity to see which trend breaks, as Lipscomb has only had games with a turnover rate north of 19% in four games, whereas FSU has only forced a turnover rate less than 19% in four games themselves. Florida State is more talented, so you'd expect this to go in their direction, but who really knows with this team?

Can Florida State Make 2-Point Baskets?

Florida State's 2-point offense has been lackluster for most of the season, having just 5 games this season shooting above the national average of 2-pointers (50.1%), and all five have been wins. In fact, their win against Winthrop before Christmas was their only win shooting below 50.1% on 2's, but it helps when you shoot 42 free throws.

For FSU to find consistent success, they need to be more consistent inside the arc. No more of these games shooting 14/42 on 2s like they were against Georgia.

Game Prediction

Florida State is favored by 9.5 points with an over/under of 150.

I'm still picking Florida State to lose until they win a game they shouldn't. Also, they're much more successful when I pick them to lose, apparently. Maybe Derrin Boyd comes back from injury early and catches FSU off guard since they weren't game-planning for him or something. Or Lipscomb takes advantage of a Florida State defense that fouls a lot and gets to the free throw line more than they're used to. No matter who wins, I'm expecting this to come in under the projected total.

Lipscomb 70 Florida State 67

Stick with NoleGameday for more coverage of Florida State basketball throughout the 2023 season.

Follow NoleGameday on Twitter and Facebook