Game Preview: Florida State Seminoles vs. UNLV Runnin' Rebels

The last game was a nightmare scenario for the Seminoles, losing by 21 to Florida in a game that never even felt that close. The offense was brutal, and the defense wasn't good enough despite the turnovers forced to carry the way. Luckily for them, they have a quick chance to turn around and make amends for it, as it is time for the Sunshine Slam in Daytona Beach, FL. Florida State made the trip straight over from Gainesville. Below is a look at the tournament's bracket (only the top half pertains to FSU).

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Colorado enters this week as the heavy favorite to win the beach bracket, just going off of KenPom rankings for the four teams: Colorado (23rd), Florida State (85th), UNLV (92nd), and Richmond (107th).

Both FSU and UNLV have less than stellar losses on their schedule already and are looking to springboard this event into a better season. No matter the result, there will be a second game for them on Tuesday.

This game will be played at 5:30 pm EST on the CBS Sports Network, live from the Ocean Center in Daytona Beach, Florida.

UNLV Runnin' Rebels Breakdown (2-1)

UNLV is in their third season under head coach Kevin Kruger, a first-time head coach who has been above .500 in each of his first two seasons in the desert. He played for UNLV for the 2006-07 season and has been an assistant coach at Northern Arizona, Oklahoma (under his father Len), and UNLV before getting the head gig, coaching players like Trae Young, Brady Manek, and Donovan Williams in his time.

Without looking, I could give you 150 guesses, and you couldn't name who UNLV lost their opening game of the season to: the Southern University Jaguars out of Baton Rouge, Louisiana.

I was stunned when I saw it while getting notes ready for this. And the score wasn't particularly close either, with the Jaguars winning 85-71, and the game wasn't even that close for much of the second half. That is Southern's only win of the season, granted they've played Arizona, Illinois, and TCU, but they also lost to 319th in KenPom Western Illinois on Friday night.

So how did they beat UNLV? By shooting the absolute peel off of the basketball, lighting UNLV up for 11/18 (61.1%) from behind the arc. In the other four games they've played, they're just 24/92 (26.1%). I think it's safe to say that's an anomaly, as UNLV held Stetson and Pepperdine to a combined 14/53 (26.4%). Nonetheless, I watched the game (or as much of it as I could find) to see what kind of shots Southern was getting up to make them go 11/18. It was a decent amount of heat check moon shots that were falling, definitely not anything sustainable.

What was sustainable, at least from Florida State's perspective, was forcing freshman Dedan Thomas Jr into five turnovers. He hasn't had a turnover since that game in 70 minutes played compared to 14 assists, but Florida State has a very aggressive defense that has forced 58 turnovers already through three games. It wouldn't be surprising at all to see Thomas cough it up a couple of times as a young player, which could force him out of rhythm. And it seems that the more Thomas can get the offense involved, the better the whole team is. As of now, he's averaging 11.7 PPG, 4.3 RPG, and 6.3 APG.

Leading the team in scoring is Jalen Hill and Luis Rodriguez. Hill, an Oklahoma transfer native to Las Vegas, is an experienced player, playing in 122 games and starting 73 of them entering this season, and was a consistent 9 points and 6 rebounds in the last two seasons for the Sooners. He's increased that to 13.3 PPG and 8.7 RPG so far this season while definitely being more of a threat inside the arc. He'll maybe shoot 1 or 2 threes in a game, but most of the time the defense will allow him to shoot those. Hill's 9 offensive rebounds already this season will be a focus on FSU's scouting report.

Rodriguez is a big-shot taker, not really a big-shot maker. In his second season at UNLV after starting his career at Ole Miss, he's averaging 5 threes taken per game, but only making them at about 29%. He's always been a great slasher inside the arc, and FSU will have to do a good job squaring him up as he drives or any time he's around the basket. He's also a good rebounder for his size, averaging about 6 rebounds per game in Las Vegas.

Kalib Boone actually leads the teams in points per game for UNLV at 14 PPG, but missed the opening game against Southern so he doesn't technically lead them in scoring. He makes a world of a difference off the bench though. Boone is a backup big who transferred in from Oklahoma State, and has steadily improved throughout his career. He's not the best defensive rebounder, though he can get after it on the offensive glass, and can struggle with fouls, which is probably why he doesn't see more playing time. Boone has good footwork, occasionally using multiple pivots in one touch, and is very athletic, so it's imperative whoever is defending him stays on the ground and doesn't bite on fakes. He's also an underrated passer who is comfortable putting the ball on the floor and using drop steps to score, though he does have his lazy passes here and there; he's a unique matchup. His brother Keylan is awaiting news on his transfer waiver.

Starting ahead of him is Isaiah Cottrell, who started his career at West Virginia, before transferring to UNLV ahead of last season, but played just 8 minutes due to a foot injury. I personally think Kalib Boone is a better player than him, though he does have the ability to step out to 3, which helps the offense flow a little smoother. He and Boone should see about the same amount of minutes.

The last starter is Justin Webster, a known sharpshooter who shot 46% from deep last season. He's off to a slow start at 29.4%, but it's because his efficiency hasn't kept up with his volume so far. Webster's 3PM is about the same as last season, but he's shooting about 33% more 3PA. The shots will likely start falling eventually, it just hasn't been the case so far. As of now, he's really their biggest threat from deep still.

Jackie Johnson was expected to take the jump into being a starting point guard, but the emergence of DJ Thomas has made that tough, and he's back to playing about 13 minutes per game like he was last season. He can shoot the 3 fairly well, but his career 1.0 APG to 1.4 TOPG makes it hard to trust him too much as a lead guard. Other than that, there's really not much depth on this team.

UNLV plays a defense similar to Florida State's, switching every action on the perimeter, but it doesn't often involve the center like FSU. Their wings are all about the same size, between 6'4" and 6'6" so it makes sense to do it, and they'll have an interesting matchup against a 6'11" Baba Miller.

Florida State Seminoles Breakdown (2-1)

It was as disastrous of a game against Florida as you could imagine, and it was far from the Seminoles we saw in the first two games. Much different level of competition, I get it, but Darin Green Jr couldn't hit water if he was on a boat in the middle of the ocean, Baba Miller struggled with foul trouble and could never find a rhythm, De'Ante Green was assessed a flagrant 2 foul and ejected for a WWE-like move going for a rebound, and just overall shots weren't falling from anywhere on the court. I'm willing to bet that's not the same Florida State team we see moving forward.

I do think they found out a couple things. First, they aren't going to score without ball movement. This team doesn't possess the natural scorers to be able to rely on them every night. Secondly, going after the offensive glass can be big for their offense. In their first two games, Florida State had 23 total offensive rebounds. Against Florida, they gathered 17 alone, which led to 17 second chance points. Some of that surely is due to every big on Florida's roster being in foul trouble, but some of their fouls came on battling on the glass.

If Florida State can dominate their own offensive glass, capitalize off of turnovers (they still did a phenomenal job creating 20 turnovers against the Gators, just have to be better about capitalizing), and just be an average shot-making team, that could be enough to win them games until Jaylan Gainey is back to clean up the interior defense.

The 2-point defense is a major concern right now. Leonard Hamilton teams used to dominate the interior defensively, but teams are shooting 55% against them inside the arc, and that's not acceptable. Going against a UNLV team that's been much better inside the arc than outside of it, it's something they'll have to clean up quickly. FSU currently only has ten teams allowing a higher free throw rate than they are. Defending without fouling has to be a major point of emphasis in these next few practices.

Injury Report

Jaylan Gainey isn't expected back until later this month or early next month as he continues to recover from a torn ACL.

Primo Spears is still awaiting news on his transfer waiver from the NCAA.

For UNLV, Shane Nowell has missed the first three games with what seems like some sort of lower leg/foot injury as he's been seen wearing a boot. It hasn't been specified what the injury is or how long he'll be out.

Keylan Boone is also still awaiting news on his transfer waiver from the NCAA.

Projected Starters

Florida State

G: Jalen Warley

G: Darin Green Jr

F: Jamir Watkins

F: Baba Miller

F: Cameron Corhen

UNLV

G: Dedan Thomas Jr

G: Justin Webster

G: Luis Rodriguez

F: Jalen Hill

F: Isaiah Cottrell

Keys to the Game

Interior Defense

UNLV is currently shooting 57.6% inside the arc (43rd nationally) while Florida State is allowing teams to shoot 55% inside the arc (281st nationally). While UNLV hasn't shot a ton of free throws so far, FSU has basically been giving them out like Halloween candy, and could be a stylistic matchup that goes in the Rebels' favor unless something gets figured out just given their tendency to attack the paint.

While UNLV has been attempting a fair amount of 3s, they haven't hit them at a major clip yet. As long as Florida State contests threes like they have been, I'm not as concerned about them as I am about the interior. Even a lot of shots UF made against them were contested early on. Continue contesting 3s and figure out the interior.

Continue Creating Chaos

While Florida State couldn't convert off of them Friday night, they have to continue creating turnovers like they have been early on. UNLV has been good at protecting the basketball, with a turnover rate in the top-60, and allowing a steal rate of just 4.6% which sits 3rd nationally. Florida State ranks top 20 in creating steals and in forced turnover rate.

Something has to give, and it's very likely whichever direction this ends up in is the direction the game ends up.

Offensive Glass and Limiting Second Chance Points

I wouldn't be surprised to see a combined 40 offensive rebounds in this game. Both teams are above 30% in offensive rebound rate, and both teams are allowing an offensive rebound rate above 35%.

Despite how many offensive rebounds they've given up, FSU has been surprisingly solid in allowing second-chance points. Florida snagged 20 offensive rebounds for a rate of 55.6% Friday night, but was limited to 13 second-chance points. When you consider a lot of offensive rebounds happen around the rim, that's not that bad. If FSU can find a way to make that sustainable, it'll help them in the long run.

Game Prediction

Florida State opened as the favorite, currently sitting at -3.5, with a projected total of 149.5.

This one could really go either way. KenPom currently has FSU winning by 1 by a score of 74-73 and that's around where I'd put the total score. Right now though, I think Florida State is a little too weak on the interior to keep UNLV out of the paint, and the Rebels win a tight one because of it.

Florida State 71 - UNLV 72

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