Game Preview: Florida State vs. Syracuse
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Florida State is returning home after a win at Louisville on Saturday afternoon, which took a lot more effort down the stretch than they were likely anticipating. Now they'll be playing a Syracuse Orange team and their infamous 2-3 zone, which has given FSU some issues this season.
This game will be at 7 pm on ESPNU, live from the Donald L. Tucker Center in Tallahassee, FL.
Syracuse Orange Breakdown
Syracuse is the same style of team they’ve been the last couple of years: some dynamic scorers, defense isn’t as stingy as it used to be, and Orange fans wondering why Coach Boeheim is still roaming the sidelines. They’re capable of beating a lot of teams in the country, but also capable of losing to just about anyone, as evidenced by their loss to Colgate earlier in the season.
For the unprepared teams, their infamous 2-3 zone can still cause fits, but the 3PT shooting nationwide is better than it’s ever been, so teams have been able to shoot over the top of them occasionally. They’ve had 7 teams shoot 40%+ from 3 and have lost 5 of them, and the two wins over Richmond and Louisville were much closer than anticipated. Overall, this is the second-worst defense Jim Boeheim has had in the KenPom area, ahead of only last year’s team that went 16-17. Teams are scoring 70.5 PPG on this defense, the third season in a row they’ve allowed 70 PPG or more. Teams have mostly figured the zone out, but it all comes down to preparation.
There are 3 main players to know for Syracuse: Joseph Girard III, Judah Mintz, and Jesse Edwards. The three Js. Two veterans, one rookie.
Girard has been pushed to more of an off-ball role this season with the emergence of Mintz, and he’s thrived. 16.6 PPG, 3.3 APG, 2.8 RPG while shooting 40.1/37.2/85.3. He’s not being asked to play-make as much, so he’s not turning it over as much, something that has really hurt this team in the past. Now that he can focus on scoring, he’s shooting more 3s than 2s.
Judah Mintz is the perfect foil to Girard, as he’s a bigger guard at 6’3”, but a better all around point guard. He’s been averaging 15.4 PPG and 4.4 APG, and turning it over 2.4 times per game. He’s a terrible shooter from distance, but makes up for it by getting to the foul line a healthy amount. FSU has to do a better job of containing the dribble against him than they’ve done against some other guards in the past.
Jesse Edwards has blossomed into a very good low post threat, averaging a double-double at 14.0 PPG and 10.1 RPG, blocking almost 3 shots per game as well. His biggest thing has always been staying out of foul trouble, but when he’s in the game, he can have games like he did on Saturday against Boston College with 27 points, 7 rebounds, 4 blocks on 12/15 shooting from the floor. I wound think FSU wants to put him in foul trouble early.
Other than those three, no one averages more than 6.5 PPG. Benny Williams is a long, rangy athlete, but is still more athlete than basketball player in this stage of his development. Chris Bell will make a shot or two from 3 at 37.2%. Maliq Brown gets a lot of the backup post minutes, and is a good rebounder. Justin Taylor is a dangerous shooter at 44.4% from deep. Symir Torrence is still figuring out his role as a backup guard.
Florida State Seminoles Breakdown
FSU really should've cruised to a dominating win Saturday over Louisville, but they just failed to make shots down the stretch and failed mostly to get stops. Luckily they did just enough to get a win, but there's still a lot of consistency that needs to be gained on a minute-by-minute basis. Otherwise, I thought a lot of players had good performances, namely Cameron Corhen, Jalen Warley, and Naheem McLeod. I'll be the first to admit Warley and McLeod haven't performed up to expectations this season, but they were rock solid against Louisville. 14/5/3 with no turnovers for Warley, and 7 points, 2 rebounds, and 2 blocks from McLeod is exactly what you want out of both of those guys, and were a big reason why FSU scored a good 1.209 points per possession.
The defense still needs a ton to work. We're at the point in the season now where no wholesale defensive changes are coming this season, but there are still minor things that can be done to make some improvements. I'm not sure how FSU can get it through these guys heads to communicate, point, and not overhelp, because they're one of the worst teams in college basketball at defending the 3 at 36.7%. Ability and talent level are not the issue, I honestly just think some guys are confused on HOW to help. There are some minor intricacies to FSU's normal defense that don't have the same attention they used to.
Their zone offense is going to be the biggest question mark heading into this game. FSU has really struggled with it for the last season and a half, and it's going to be up to the guards to make sure everyone is in the right place. How realistic is it that it can happen? I guess we'll see here shortly.
Injury Report
Jaylan Gainey is out for the season with an ACL injury.
Cam'Ron Fletcher is out for the season with a knee injury.
Jeremiah Bembry is not expected to play this season.
Peter Carey is out for the season following a knee procedure.
Projected Starters
Florida State
G: Jalen Warley
G: Caleb Mills
G: Darin Green Jr
F: Matthew Cleveland
F: Cameron Corhen
Syracuse
G: Judah Mintz
G: Joseph Girard III
F: Benny Williams
F: Chris Bell
F: Jesse Edwards
Keys to the Game
Zone Offense
Playing against the zone has given FSU a lot of fits over the last 12-14 months, so how they operate in this one is going to be a big determining factor. My guess is they'll likely stick Matthew Cleveland in the high post and let him go to work, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Caleb Mills there, or even Cameron Corhen, who has played that high post role occasionally this season. If these guys can make the defense respect the shot from the free throw line area, it's going to open up a ton for the rest of the offense.
Ball Pressure
Syracuse is actually a pretty good team at taking care of the ball, posting a turnover rate of just 17.1%, but if you can get them to turn it over, FSU will stand a good chance of winning. Of Cuse's 10 losses, 8 have come when posting a turnover rate higher than 18%, and have just 3 wins (over Boston College, Louisville, and Cornell for reference), when their turnover rate is that high. I'm expecting FSU to really ramp up the ball pressure with blitzes, traps, full court press, things of that nature, just to get Girard and Mintz to cough it up.
Jesse Edwards
If Edwards has a similar game to how he did against Boston College, I'm not sure if FSU is going to have a good chance in this. He was getting to his spots with no resistance from BC's defense. FSU needs to force him away from the block, get him a couple feet further away from scoring opportunities. He's a capable playmaker from the post as well, but the further FSU can push him away, the better.
Game Prediction
Syracuse is favored by 3.5 points, with an over/under of 149.5.
I have zero faith in FSU's zone offense unless they can get hot from 3, but they had 4/30 and 2/25 performances against Syracuse last year. Not exactly holding my breath. Syracuse has struggled at times on the road on the season, but they should win this one.
Syracuse 77 FSU 68
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